15 Million Cybercabs

TL;DR

Tesla robotaxi deployment could result in 15 million Cybercabs manufactured per year at maturity. Cybercab production ramps from a meager start in 2026 to 15M annually by 2040. This growth is driven by a decline in personal vehicle ownership as autonomy improves. Tesla to capture 35% marketshare by 2028 and 45% by 2040 (higher in US, lower in China). Autonomous ridehail is a $10T opportunity. Challenges include regulations and China competition.

Introduction

Tesla's Cybercab was unveiled in October 2024. Initial production is expected to start in 1H26, with manufacturing slowly ramping in 2026 with a significant step-up in 2027. Musk tweeted on January 20-21, 2026, "For Cybercab and Optimus, almost everything is new, so the early production rate will be agonizingly slow, but eventually end up being insanely fast."

Market Projections

The global robotaxi market is forecast to expand dramatically. Long-term estimates peg ridehail as $10 trillion opportunity, driven by shifts from personal car ownership to on-demand services(Source). Tesla's slice of this pie hinges on its manufacturing prowess and AI edge. Analysts from RBC project Tesla's robotaxi revenue hitting $1.7 trillion by 2040(Source). 

Cybercab Current Status and Near-Term Plans

The two-seater Tesla Cybercab is optimized for autonomous operation without traditional controls like steering wheels or pedals. The initial focus is on US markets such as Austin and select California cities. Elon Musk has repeatedly forecasted unsupervised full self-driving rolling out soon; he (incorrectly) forecasted that Tesla ride-hailing services would serve half of the US population by the end of 2025. Regardless of the timeline, this aligns with broader industry trends, where competitors like Waymo already offer limited services today, logging around 250,000 paid rides weekly in 2025 with intentions to expand to all population-dense regions(Source).

Early fleet deployments remain modest. Analysts anticipate Tesla's robotaxi count surpassing 1,000 vehicles by mid-2026, starting from pilots of 20 to 30 units in 2025 in select areas(Source). Such cautious scaling reflects regulatory scrutiny and the need for robust safety data. Tesla's vision-only approach, relying on cameras and neural networks trained on billions of miles from its existing fleet, promises cost advantages over lidar-heavy rivals. Operating costs could dip to $0.20 to $0.30 per mile, undercutting current ridehail fares and fostering wider adoption.

Tesla's Ridehail Market Share

By 2028, Tesla could command 35% of the market, bolstered by rapid production ramps and competitive pricing. This share might climb to 45% by 2040, equating to a fleet of 50 to 70 million vehicles and annual revenues around $1.1 trillion. Such growth assumes Tesla outpaces players like Waymo, which leads in current ride volumes but scales more slowly due to higher costs. In China, local firms such as Baidu may limit Tesla to 20% to 30% penetration, yet US and European markets could see Tesla holding over 50%. Induced demand from lower prices, potentially boosting vehicle miles traveled by 20% to 40%, would further amplify fleet needs and solidify Tesla's position.

Competitor	Projected Global Market Share by 2040	Key Strength	Estimated Annual Revenue ($ Billions)
Tesla	45%	Cost efficiency, data moat	1,100
Waymo (Alphabet)	20%	Early mover advantage	500
Baidu/Pony.ai	25%	China dominance	600
Others (Uber, Cruise)	10%	Existing ridehail business	200

This table illustrates a fragmented landscape, with Tesla benefiting from vertical integration to capture the largest portion.

Annual Robotaxi Manufacturing Projections

To achieve these fleet targets, Tesla must "solve" FSD and ramp production aggressively. Initial output focuses on the Cybercab, with factories in Austin and Shanghai retooling for volumes starting at 100,000 units in 2027. Projections draw from analyst models and Musk's timelines, assuming a 50% annual growth rate through 2030, tapering to 20% thereafter as markets mature and replacement cycles stabilize. Vehicle lifespans of 8 to 10 years necessitate ongoing production for both expansion and retirements.

The following table outlines estimated annual manufacturing from 2026 through 2040, based on scaling to support a 50-million-plus global fleet by mid-century. These figures incorporate escalating production with new facilities coming online (Source).

Year	Estimated Annual Production (Units)	Key Drivers
2026	5,000	Pilot launches in US cities, initial factory ramps
2027	100,000	Regulatory approvals expand to Europe
2028	400,000	Cost reductions enable mass production
2029	750,000	Fleet growth accelerates with AI improvements
2030	1,250,000	Entry into additional Asian markets
2031	2,000,000	Replacement cycles begin
2032	3,000,000	Additional Gigafactory comes online
2033	5,000,000	Peak expansion phase opens more markets
2034	7,000,000	Stabilization in mature markets
2035	9,000,000	Additional Gigafactory comes online
2036	12,000,000	Focus on growth in emerging economies
2037	13,000,000	Personal vehicle ownership in urban areas continues to decline
2038	14,000,000	Autonomous rides are mainstream
2039	14,500,000	Balanced growth and replacements
2040	15,000,000	Mature market equilibrium

These estimates assume steady technological progress and minimal disruptions, potentially totaling ~95 million cumulatively Tesla robotaxis on the road by 2040.

Challenges and Opportunities

Despite optimism, Tesla faces obstacles. Regulatory delays and FSD performance could push timelines (Source). Safety incidents, competition from subsidized Chinese firms, and infrastructure needs for wireless charging networks pose risks. On the opportunity side, Tesla's ecosystem, including energy storage, Supercharger locations, and app integrations, creates network effects that retain users and boost utilization rates to 80%. If Tesla navigates these effectively, its robotaxi arm could comprise 90% of enterprise value by 2029 (Source).

Owning a personal vehicle in major cities will feel as outdated and impractical as keeping a horse in Manhattan.

Owning A Horse in Manhattan

As autonomy matures and robotaxi fleets scale, personal vehicle ownership in urban areas will fade into obsolescence. Why own a car that sits idle 95% of the time, requires monthly insurance payments, new tires and wipers every few years, regular brake servicing, and constant parking fees? The math simply does not work at some point. 

Instead, residents summon a clean, quiet robotaxi via their phone for door-to-door service, arriving at their front door in minutes. No DMV or DEQ hassles, no registration fees, no depreciation worries, no surprise repair bills. Costs drop to pennies per mile as high-utilization robotaxis spread fixed expenses across thousands of daily rides. Urbanites reclaim time, garage space, and peace of mind, while cities benefit from fewer parked cars clogging streets and reduced emissions.

By the mid-2030s, owning a personal vehicle in major cities will feel as outdated and impractical as keeping a horse in 1920s Manhattan. This trend will drive the growth of robotaxi fleets. The future is not ownership. It is effortless, shared mobility.

Stepping Stones

If you look at Tesla's history, you'll see that they have been on a deliberate trajectory and (in the vehicle space at least) Cybercab is the ultimate destination. Their initial vehicle, the Tesla Roadster, was used to show that EVs could be far more than slow, boring vehicles. This allowed them to raise the capital they needed to create the Model S and X. In 2016 and most of 2017, the S and the X were the drivers of Tesla's sales and revenue. That changed when the Model 3 (and later Model Y) came out. Today, the Model S and X are an insignificant part of Tesla's revenue. In much the same way, Cybercab could grow to be the bulk of Tesla's vehicle production and revenue, such that Model 3 and Y are rounding errors. 

Conclusion

Tesla's robotaxi ambitions, anchored by the Cybercab, promise to transform transportation economics and accessibility. From modest 2026 production to potentially 15 million units annually by 2040, the company's trajectory hinges on innovation, regulation, and execution. While challenges abound, Tesla's advantages in scale and cost position it for 45% market leadership by mid-century, driving trillions in value. As this unfolds, observers will watch closely, anticipating a future where autonomous rides become as ubiquitous as smartphones today.