The Road To 2 Million EVs on US Roads

The modern EV era started with the introduction of the Chevy Volt and the Nissan Leaf in December of 2010. Now ~8 years later, we've had many notable milestones:

• September 2015: Global plug-in sales passed 1 million units
• December 2016: Global plug-in sales passed 2 million units
• November 2017: Global plug-in sales passed 3 million units
• December 2017: Annual global EV sales passed 1 million units
• September 2018: Global plug-in sales passed 4 million units
• September 2018: U.S. plug-in sales passed 1 million units

Looking at the final milestone on this list (1 million EVs in the US) has led to the question of when will the 2nd million EVs be on US roads. After reading a thread of bickering EV fans, I decided to make some forecast models of my own. I've made two models, one optimistic and the other less optimistic but still with strong growth.

The first million US EVs took 7 years and 10 months to sell. For the 2nd million, the pessimistic model forecasts ~3 years, whereas the optimistic model forecasts less than 2 years (~21 months). 

Each of these forecasts is shown in the charts below. Which one do you think is more accurate? Or do you have a different forecast? 

The next couple of years will be interesting for US EV sales. There are several headwinds and tailwinds that will impact EV sales.

Let's look at the headwinds first. The EV tax credit will phase out for Tesla, GM, and Nissan. GM has recently stopped making the Chevy Volt. As a vanguard for this new era, it is sad to see the Volt retired. The US economy is the next potential headwind. Janet Yellen, Alan Greenspan, & Morgan Stanley have all stated concerns about the economy slowing in 2019 and potentially entering a recession in 2020. These are key years in our path to 2 million EVs. An econmonic slowdown would certainly impact auto sales, EVs included.

As for tailwinds, many more EVs will be coming to market over the next two years including the $35k Tesla Model 3 and offerings from Audi, Kia, Mini, Porsche, Volvo, and others. New vehicles brings more options and more buyers. We can also expect to see redesigns of the Nissan Leaf, BMW i3, and the Tesla Model S & X. These refreshes should bring more range, faster charging, and/or other new features. These new and refreshed models will spur interest from a larger portion of the car buying market.

How these headwinds and tailwinds play out, will determine if the trend follows closer to the optimistic or the pessimistic forecast. Either way, it will be an exciting ride as personal transportation goes through its biggest transition in 100 years.

http://ts.la/patrick7819

Tesla Model 3 Center Cap Removal on 18" Aero Wheel

When you purchase a Tesla Model 3, you have several choices to make: battery size, paint color, interior... One of those choices is the wheels. Unless you upgrade them, the Model 3 comes with 18" Aero Wheels.

The aero wheels are great if you want to maximize range, but many find them visually unappealing. Luckily, for those that find the aero covers aesthetically-challenged, the aero cover pops off and the wheels underneath are not bad looking. To improve the look even more, you can replace the aero cover with a wheel cap kit. This kit covers the lug nuts and has a Tesla logo center insert. You can see the installed kit in the image below.

Model 3 Aero Wheel Cap Kit 

If you plan on taking a road trip, you might want to put the aero cover back on to improve your range. To install the aero cover, you must first pop the Tesla logo cap out of the center of the wheel. However, many people have found that the center logo cap is not easy to remove. This is good because you want it to be secure as you drive down the road and you wouldn't want someone to walk by in a parking lot and just grab your center cap.

So how do you remove the center cap? You can use a spudger, a screwdriver, or something else to pry the cover out, but this might not be able to squeeze in or it could scratch the wheel or center cap. The smart way to remove the center cap is to use a small suction cup that's designed to replace smartphone screens. These little suction cups are inexpensive and you can find them on eBay and Amazon.

Screen Suction Cup, perfect for removing the wheel center cap

You can see Mark Coughlan from The Tesla Life demonstrating the technique in the video below:

To purchase your own suction cup, click here: Amazon.
If you want the cap kit, click here: Tesla shop.


http://ts.la/patrick7819

Tesla: What to Expect in 2019

What does Tesla have in store for us in 2019? We had a list of things to expect for 2018, here are a few from the list that they delivered:

• Ramping Model 3 production to 5,000+ per week
• Dual motor Model 3 deliveries
• Sneak peeks of the Roadster 2020 and Semi as they start road testing
• New Tesla mobile app with several new features
• Performance Model 3 deliveries
• Navigation route following for AutoPilot
• Announcing locations and perhaps even breaking ground on one or two new Gigafactory locations (They delivered on one of these in Shanghai, China)
• Delivering their 200,000 US vehicle in July of 2018 triggering the countdown to the start of the tax credit phase-out (They delivered in July, just as we forecasted) 

Tesla delivered the above and more such as when they surprised everyone with the introduction of the Model 3 Mid-Range in 2018.

There were also a few things on our list for last year that they did not deliver:

• Standard range Model 3 ($35k variant) deliveries 
• Coast to coast autonomous drive demo
• Solar roof tile high volume deliveries
• Megacharger (for Semi) deployments
• Stop sign \ Traffic light recognition
• HUD option for Model 3

Should we expect to see any of these leftovers in 2019? I think most of these are have a good chance of occurring this year. The HUD seems to be off the table since we have not heard any mention of it recently. 

What can we add to the list for this year? For this, I'll also borrow from last year's long-range view of ideas:

• Reveal event for Model Y (where the Tesla pickup might be the surprise "one more thing")
• Model S and X interior redesign to bring it up to snuff with the Model 3 minimalist design 
• Model S and X moving to the 2170 cell architecture 
• If Model S and X move to 2170 cells, this could bring more range, faster 0-60, & faster charging 
• Improved voice commands that reduce the need to use the touchscreen for many settings
• First deliveries of the Tesla Semi (low volume/beta) 

For our 2018 list, these were listed as coming in 2019 or later. Will they happen in 2019? Tesla has to bring Model Y, Pickup, Semi, & Roadster to market, bring Giga 3 online, locate Giga 4, all while growing the Supercharger network. That is a lot on their plate. Redesigning the battery and interior of the Model S & X effectively makes them new vehicles. They may want to stick with the current 18650 and interior for one more year.

As a side note: When the Model S and X move to the 2170 cell, do you think they will move to the "Standard Range/Long Range" badging, or do you think they'll stay with the kWh nomenclature?

A few new things to add to the list that we may see in 2019: 

• When the standard range Model 3 is introduced, initially you'll only be able to order it with the premium interior and glass roof; this will keep the average selling price up and allow them to be sold profitably
• AutoPilot Hardware 3
• Model 3 leasing (This is one of Tesla's primary demand levers)
• Supercharger V3 (and we find out that under ideal conditions the Model 3 can charge faster than 120kW)  
• Another US price reduction in July 2019 as the tax credit halves again (perhaps $1000 this time)
• Model 3 orders/deliveries start in Europe and China
• European Gigafactory location announced / groundbreaking
• The mid-range Model 3 discontinued soon after the standard range is introduced (after all it is called the Lemar (LEMR) b/c it is a limited edition)

For completeness, I'll include a few things I don't expect to see from Tesla in 2019:

• Full self-driving
• TeslaTunes streaming music service
• Tesla Network ridesharing service

Following Tesla, there are always surprises. You never know when Elon Musk is going to launch a car into space, tweet about drilling tunnels, sell (not a) flamethrowers, or build a 50s style diner with food delivery via roller skates.

What surprises do you expect from Tesla in 2019?

http://ts.la/patrick7819

Driving A Tesla Model 3 To The Moon - 11 Years Of Solar Production

• If you could drive a Model 3 to the Moon, how much energy would it take?
• The Moon is ~238,900 miles away
• In a dual motor Model 3, it would take 69,281 kWh to drive that far
• We have generated 69,460 kWh from our solar PV systems
• A brief history of our EV ownership and PV installations

Eleven years after the PV on our rooftop came to life, it has generated 69,460 kWh of energy.

The graph shows that we have not one, but two PV systems on our roof. Our first system was installed in late 2007. This is a 4 kW array and it has produced 41,398 kWh. Our second array was added in 2015. It is an 8 kW array and has produced 28,062 kWh.

Why Solar?

In 2007, we purchased our first EV, a Chevy S10e electric truck. With the aged NiMH batteries, it only had 40 miles of range, but it was great. It was my commuter and errand runner. It was nice to have a truck for Home Depot runs. Our first PV system was installed later that year so we could power our EV with homemade electrons.

In 2011, we traded the truck in for a Nissan Leaf with nearly twice the range. Now even more of our miles were electrically powered and we started taking short road trips in the Leaf.

In 2015 we added more PV, tripling the capacity of our system.

In 2016 we traded our remaining gas car in for a long-range Tesla Model X. We were now a 100% EV household.  With 2 EVs in our household, we are no longer buying gasoline and all of our transportation is "fueled" from the grid and our solar panels.

In 2018 we traded the Leaf in for a long-range Tesla Model 3. We are now a 100% Tesla family.

We have switched to Time-Of-Use electricity schedule. The solar panels reduce our daytime use and we charge the cars overnight at off-peak times. The off-peak rate here is only 4¢ per kWh. Electricity was already a cheap fuel, this makes it even more affordable.

Enough Energy To Drive To The Moon

The energy our PV systems have generated is enough to power our Tesla Model 3 for ~240,000 miles. Based on the EPA rating, this is enough to drive around the equator nine and a half times or, if you prefer, the distance to the Moon. This is also more than 1 light-second (appropriately powered by light).

Tax Credit & The $35k Tesla Model 3

The New Year is here and with it, the tax credit for new Tesla vehicles drops by 50%, from $7500 to $3750. In July of 2018, Tesla sold their 200,000th EV in the US; that meant that the tax credit for Tesla's vehicles was set to begin its phase-out by dropping to $3750 on January 1st, 2019; then to $1875 on July 1st, 2019; and finally vanishing as we ring in 2020.

You will undoubtedly see headlines such as "All Tesla Cars Just Become $3,750 More Expensive", but that may not be completely true.

There are a couple bills that could extend the tax credit. One extends it for 3 years, while the other extends it for 10 years. There is even a 3rd bill related to the EV tax credit, but this third one seeks to eliminate the credit immediately. For this exercise, we'll assume that none of these bills pass, although we have our fingers crossed for the first two.

The EV Tax Credit & You

The incentive dropping might not be as bad as it seems at first. The way that the tax credit works, it can only offset your tax liability. The US tax credit is a non-refundable credit with no carry-forward. This means to take full advantage of the $7500 credit, you would have needed to have a tax liability of $7500 or more.

To clarify, your tax liability is not the tax bill you may have to pay when you file. Rather, this is the sum of all your federal withholdings throughout the year then adjusted by the payment or refund from tax time.

I'll give a few simplified examples, but taxes are complicated, so consult your own tax professional as needed.

Half Tax Credit Amount Might Be Just Right

If you've been holding out for the more affordable $35k version of the Model 3, you might be disappointed if the tax credit is halved before you can pick up your car. The good news is that it might not matter. Remember the two points from above: One, you can only use the tax credit to offset your own tax liability (it is not just a payment to you); and two, there is no carry-forward to the next tax year.

There are plenty of people with large tax bills that prefer to buy affordable cars, but there are also plenty of people on the reservation list that are stretching their budget to buy their first Tesla. If you are doing "the Tesla Stretch" then this reduction in the tax incentive might not matter to you.

How Much Tax Credit Can You Use?
$7500 

You can find your gross tax liability on line 47 of Form 1040, on line 30 of Form 1040A, or on line 10 of Form 1040EZ. If your income is similar this year to last year's, then last year's taxes will give you a good idea. However, if you don't want to dig out your old taxes, let's run some back of the napkin numbers.

Let's see what income you would have needed to take full advantage of the $7500 tax credit. Before we start with the numbers, it is impossible to have a single answer to a tax question because everyone's situation is different and will be impacted by things like:

• Filing/marriage status 
• Mortgage interest
• 401(k) contributions
• State and Local Taxes You Paid
• Interest You Paid
• Gifts to Charity
• Medical Expenses
• Casualty and Theft Losses
• Personal Legal Bills
• Health Insurance Premiums
• Babysitter Payments While Volunteering
• Lifetime Learning Expenses 
• Self-employed Social Security

For this exercise, I'll assume Married Filing Jointly, using just the standard deduction, making some pre-tax 401(k) deposits (assuming you're using a traditional 401(k) and not a Roth 401(k)). If you're over 50 years old, you can put an additional $6,000 into your 401(k), but for this example, I'll assume you are under 50 or not opting for the $6k catch up. If this is not your situation, the exercise will show you how to construct your own.

For a household to have a $7500 in tax liability, you first need to have more income than the standard $24,400 deduction then there's the maxed out pre-tax 401(k), that's $19,000 for 2019. Then you enter the 10% bracket for the next $19,400. Next, you enter the 12% bracket. You'll need to earn another $46,330 in this bracket to hit the full $7500 in tax liability.

Adding this all up, to utilize the entire $7500 tax incentive, you'd need to have a household income of ~$109,000+. According to Bankrate, only 20% of US households have a $100,000+ income.

How Much Tax Credit Can You Use?
$3750

Using the same back of the napkin math for the half tax credit, you'd need to have a ~$78,000 household income to qualify for the full $3,750 tax credit. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the median household income is ~$60,000.  So for most US households, a $3750 tax credit is adequate to refund all of your tax liabilities. The average Tesla buyer is likely to be above the median income, but even if you are ~$20k above the median, the half tax credit is enough to wipe away most of your federal tax liability for 2019.

Conclusion: Tax Credit for the $35,000 Model 3

If you've been holding out for the $35k base model variant of the Model 3, but you're bummed that the tax credit is currently cut in half, the odds are that the half tax credit is nearly as useful. We just need to see the $35k Model 3 shipped in the first half of 2019.

http://ts.la/patrick7819

Two Years of Tesla Ownership

We've had our Tesla Model X for 2 years now. Last year I detailed the delivery story and a few minor issues here in our 1 year of ownership post. Now at the 2-year mark, I can report that I still love the car. It is so much fun. This is by far the best (and most expensive) car that I've ever owned. The software updates bring improvements and easter eggs that keep the car exciting.

How is the car aging?
We have nearly 25,000 miles on the odometer. With my other cars, I would typically only have 9 or 10 thousand miles per year. I enjoy this can so much that I'm looking for reasons to drive it. I've taken two road trips to San Diego and for a family vacation, we toured the 7 Wonders of Oregon, we traveled to southern Oregon multiple times to visit family, and we've taken it to the coast for beach clean-up events. We've even used bioweapon defense mode while traveling through the smoke of raging forest fires.

After buying a Leaf in 2011, I was hooked on electric and knew that I was never going back to a gas car. However, the Leaf experience left me concerned about battery degradation. Before buying the Model X, I researched Tesla's battery lifespan & degradation and was impressed by graphs like the one below:

Seeing that they have been highly reliable is great, but how is my car doing? Similar to the tracking that I've been doing with our Leaf since 2012, I've been collecting and charting battery data for our Tesla for over a year now. Here's the resulting graph:

The first graph shows degradation based on distance driven, whereas my graph is based on age, but we do know the odometer reading.

2-years, ~25,000 miles ~40,000 km, degradation = 4.3% 

This puts my results inline with others in the first chart. The good news is that degradation seems to significantly slow down after ~5%. Time will tell. Our Leaf never seems to find a spot where the degradation slowed. As the range decreased, the demands on the battery capacity grew and with it so did the degradation this caused. The Tesla, on the other hand, has far more capacity and a far better thermal management system. Next year's 3-year report will be telling.

National Drive Electric Week event in Wilsonville on September 15th, 2018

NDEW 2017 at Washington Square Mall Indoor Display

The OEVA is holding their National Drive Electric Week event in Wilsonville on September 15^th from 10-3.

A big part of the event is the PGE Electric Test Drive – people who test drive EV’s leading up to and at the event can earn free entries into the OEVA fundraising raffle. The prize is $5,000 towards the purchase or lease of an EV (new or used)! Note: Current OEVA members are NOT eligible to win, but someone that joins after Sept 1^st is OK.

The OEVA is selling raffle tickets @$5 each, PGE is purchasing the free tickets that are given away for test drives. If you know friends/co-workers that want to buy tickets, we will have them for sale at the event (and at our monthly meeting on Thur)

We currently have 10+ dealers providing test drives at the event, with more giving free entries for test drives at their locations leading up to the event.

Platt Auto will be doing test drives on used EVs and we will draw for a fun door prize – 3 day extended test drive of a Tesla Model S subject to availability). He is also giving away a JuiceBox Pro 40 at his booth – stop by and enter the drawing.

As always, we can use volunteers!

You can get more info and register to attend (or volunteer) at:

https://driveelectricweek.org/event.php?eventid=1293

Gary Exner