Peak ICE, the Year That EVs Became Unstoppable

The Critical Cracking of Combustion

Technology adoption changes gradually, then suddenly. It starts as a stroll, turns into a turbulent mess, followed by a vertical ascent. This is how tipping points go. The magical hockey stick moment happens after a new technology captures roughly 15% to 18% of the total market. This is called crossing the chasm. Once the "Early Majority" hops over this gap, the new technology is on the path to domination, and the old way of doing things will quickly become a historical footnote.

In the automotive world, 2025 was that decisive year. The internal combustion engine is not just losing its lead. It is losing its future relevance. This transition is not just about tailpipes or tax credits; it is about the inevitable shift of capital, culture, and convenience. We are witnessing the most significant transport transformation since the horse was released from the stagecoach.

The Peculiar Physics of Popularity

The Diffusion of Innovations theory describes how ideas spread through a population. It categorizes consumers into distinct groups based on their tolerance for risk. First come the "Innovators." These people like shiny, expensive, and sometimes buggy gadgets. They represent the first 2.5% of the market. These are the people who bought the Tesla Roadster in 2008-2012, and the first generation Model S. Next come the "Early Adopters." These individuals are the opinion leaders. They represent about 13.5% of the market. These are people who bought the Nissan Leaf, Chevy Volt in 2010 - 2014, and the Tesla Model 3 in 2018 - 2022. When these two groups are saturated, critical mass is established.

This critical mass is around 16% for most technologies. At 16%, the technology is no longer a weird hobby for Silicon Valley residents. It becomes a viable tool for suburban parents, commuters, and logistics managers. This percentage is the point of no return. This is an important amount because it robs the incumbent technology of market growth; this means the economies of scale for legacy products begins its reversal; once this starts, the end is already written.

Beyond this line, the "Early Majority" enters the fray. These people are pragmatic. They wait for the bugs to be worked out. They want to know that the tech will not vanish in three years. Once they see their neighbors charging in their driveways, the floodgates open. This is when the growth curve stops being a gentle slope. It becomes a rocket launch. The market stops asking "will it work?" and starts asking "how can I get one?"

The Global Grid: Winners, Whiz-kids, and Wait-and-seers

Looking back at 2025, the data tells a story of diverging regional destinies. Globally, we have crossed the threshold. Approximately 25.5% of new car sales last year were cars-with-cords (this includes both battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids). However, this shift is not spread evenly around the globe.

China is the clear leader in this race. It cleared the 15% line in 2021. Today, over half of its new car sales are electrified. Europe followed a similar path. It hit the tipping point around the same time. Despite some political friction in 2024, European adoption remains robust at 26%. Then there is the US. The US is a laggard. We currently sit at 10.5% and have not yet cleared the 16% hurdle. High interest rates and inconsistent federal policy have kept the "Early Majority" on the sidelines for now. However, albeit a slowburn, the momentum is still building.

EV Adoption Milestones by Region

Region	2025 Market Share	Tipping Point Year	Adoption Phase
China	53%	2021	Late Majority
Europe	26.2%	2021	Early Majority
Global	25.5%	2023	Early Majority
US	10.5% (Lagging)	Projected 2028	Early Adopters

The Impending Infrastructure Inversion

Economics drives the engine of change. For years, the upfront cost of EVs was the main barrier. Today, that barrier is dissolving. Battery prices have plummeted. We are seeing a massive shift in how people view their cars as financial assets. A gas-powered vehicle purchased today is a depreciating asset with a looming expiration date. What will the resale values be for a gas car in 2032, when most new cars are cars-with-cords? Why would a buyer in 2032 want a 2026 vehicle that requires expensive fuel and specialized maintenance?

This creates a "death spiral" for legacy technology. Businesses want to support growing markets. As demand for gasoline drops, gas stations will close. Maintenance shops will transition to electrical work. Spare parts for old engines and transmissions will become rare and expensive. The infrastructure that once made the gas car convenient will become its greatest liability. The cost of ownership for an electric car is already lower. Maintenance is simpler, fueling is cheaper. There are no oil changes, timing belts, or spark plugs to replace. In 2026, with the proliferation of LFP batteries, the sticker price will match. Buying a new V8 in 2026 is like buying a high-end fax machine in 1998. It might look impressive on your desk; however, your colleagues are going to look at you with a mix of pity and confusion while sending emails to each other talking about that guy who still wants to fax people.

The Scintillating Schedule of the Silent Shift

The road ahead has several specific markers that will define the next decade. Let's look at a timeline. We just discussed 2026's "Sticker Price Parity." This means an EV SUV, crossover, or sedan will be equivalent to a similar-sized gas burner. When this happens, no subsidies are required to make the purchase math work for the average consumer. The financial argument for combustion is simply evaporating.

In 2027, battery advancements will continue. This may be the year that solid-state batteries enter the consumer market. These batteries could offer 700 miles of range and charge in ten minutes. But even if solid-state never arrives, battery tech gets better by 5% to 7% each year. Stack another decade of improvements, and this will be the final nail in the coffin for all corners of ICE transportation. By 2030, we will reach "Peak ICE." This is the point where the total number of gas cars on the road actually starts to decrease globally. Even if some people still buy them, the scrap heap will grow faster than they roll off showroom floors. By 2035, the global market share will clearly be past 50% (even in the US). The sound of a revving engine will shift from a symbol of power to a nostalgic curiosity. It will be something you hear at a classic car show, not at a stoplight.

The Final Farewell to the Fire-Breathers

The transition is happening. It is not an act of charity; it's driven by economics. It is an act of evolution. We are moving toward a world that is quieter, cleaner, and more efficient. The internal combustion engine served us well for a century. It powered our growth, our wars, and our adventures. But its time is up. The math is simple; the momentum is absolute and undisputable.

We are not just changing how we fuel our cars. We are changing how we interact with our cities and our surroundings. The air will be clearer. The streets will be quieter. The economic benefits will be distributed more broadly as we move away from volatile oil markets. As we look toward the 2030s, we can see the outline of a smarter transportation system. The global tipping point is behind us. The steep part of the curve is starting now. We are finally driving toward a future free from fossil fuels.