Tesla Plans Robotaxis in 37 Cities This Year

Scaling Tesla's Robotaxi Service:
50% of US Population by 2025

Tesla’s Robotaxi service, launched in Austin, Texas, on June 22, 2025, is a bold move toward autonomous transportation. On the recent financial call, Elon Musk announced that robotaxi service will expand significantly in Austin, launch in the Bay Area within one to two months, and cover 50% of the US population by the end of 2025. This an ambitious scalability plan. How many cities would the service need to operate in to cover 50% of the US population? 

The Austin pilot began with 10 to 20 Model Y vehicles in a 42-square-mile geofenced area, with safety monitors onboard. By July 2025, the fleet had grown to about 35 vehicles. The service relies on Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) software, using cameras and AI. The service currently charges $4.20 per ride and is invite-only for select users.

Musk’s goal to reach 50% of the US population (approximately 170.9 million people) by year-end requires expanding to major metropolitan areas. Based on 2024 Census Bureau data, the top 37 metropolitan areas are home to about 171.7 million people. Musk has named Austin, the Bay Area, Phoenix, Florida (Miami/Tampa), and Nevada (Las Vegas) as targets, with more cities planned. The top 5 areas likely to be included, based on population and Musk’s statements, are:

• New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA (19.6 million): The largest US metro area, critical for population coverage.
• Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA (13.3 million): A key West Coast hub, complementing the Bay Area.
• Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI (9.9 million): A major Midwest market with high urban density.
• Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX (8.1 million): A Texas expansion alongside Austin, leveraging permissive regulations.
• San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA (4.6 million): The Bay Area, explicitly named by Musk for near-term launch.

To cover 50% of the US population, Tesla would need to operate in approximately 37 metropolitan areas, based on cumulative population data. Tesla’s generalized FSD approach, designed to adapt without city-specific mapping, could enable rapid deployment. Musk predicts over 1,000 Cybercabs in Austin by 2026, leveraging Tesla’s manufacturing capacity.

However, challenges persist. Videos show Austin robotaxis making errors, like veering into oncoming lanes, and a July 2025 incident involved a safety driver averting a train collision. Regulatory hurdles, like Texas’s September 2025 autonomous vehicle law and California’s strict permitting process, could delay expansion. Tesla’s current reliance on teleoperators limits cost efficiency, and achieving a 100:1 vehicle-to-supervisor ratio demands further software advancements.

Ride costs of $0.25 to $0.40 per mile could disrupt ride-hailing and reduce emissions. Success hinges on overcoming safety, regulatory, and trust barriers.

Wrapping Up 

In conclusion, Tesla’s Robotaxi service is poised to revolutionize transportation, targeting 50% of the US population by the end of 2025 with its expansion to 37 metropolitan areas, starting with Austin and the Bay Area. Despite challenges in safety, regulation, and public trust, Tesla’s cost-effective FSD technology and vast vehicle fleet offer a promising path forward. This service provides affordable mobility far below traditional ride-hailing rates. For those unable to drive due to age, disability, or financial constraints, Robotaxi offers unprecedented access, fostering inclusivity and reducing reliance on personal vehicles, potentially reshaping urban mobility for all.

Here's the complete list to get to half of the US population: 

	Metropolitan Area
1	Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX: 2,368,947
2	San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA: 4,579,599
3	New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA: 19,641,225
4	Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA: 13,288,904
5	Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI: 9,879,320
6	Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX: 8,100,037
7	Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX: 7,510,246
8	Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV: 6,432,346
9	Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL: 6,183,199
10	Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD: 6,268,536
11	Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA: 6,345,112
12	Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ: 5,070,110
13	Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH: 4,919,294
14	Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA: 4,485,498
15	Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI: 4,365,250
16	Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA: 4,044,837
17	Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI: 3,706,478
18	San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA: 3,298,634
19	Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL: 3,342,048
20	Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO: 3,005,131
21	St. Louis, MO-IL: 2,818,249
22	Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD: 2,848,104
23	Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC: 2,805,115
24	Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL: 2,817,933
25	San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX: 2,703,378
26	Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA: 2,510,352
27	Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA: 2,428,209
28	Pittsburgh, PA: 2,346,747
29	Las Vegas-Henderson-North Las Vegas, NV: 2,336,989
30	Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN: 2,288,614
31	Kansas City, MO-KS: 2,221,297
32	Columbus, OH: 2,180,271
33	Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN: 2,142,193
34	Cleveland-Elyria, OH: 2,030,305
35	Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, TN: 2,104,235
36	Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC: 1,854,876
37	Jacksonville, FL: 1,713,432