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Sunday, February 23, 2025

Tesla Shedding Early Adopters Could Accelerate Move To EVs


Elon Musk has undeniably become a divisive figure in recent years. Once hailed as the nerd king of innovation behind Tesla and Space X, he’s now a lightning rod, putting half the population into a frothy rage with every unfiltered X post. Musk’s wrecking ball actions with DOGE and his infamous inauguration salute have endeared him to some while alienating others, creating a stark divide among his followers and critics. This polarization extends beyond his personal brand to the companies he leads, particularly Tesla. Musk's persona has shifted from that of a future-focused visionary to a right-wing culture warrior. Love him or loathe him, he’s become as divisive as a Thanksgiving dinner with your unvaccinated uncle.

Many of Tesla's early supporters wonder where the Obama-era liberal Musk has gone. Where's the man who believed climate change was a bigger threat than wokeness. Musk's shift has caused some of Tesla’s early adopters to race away from the company faster than a Roadster's zero-to-sixty. These initial buyers—often tech-savvy, and environmentally conscious—were drawn to Tesla’s promise of cutting-edge electric vehicles (EVs) and a sustainable future. They were once Tesla’s ride-or-die crew. However, Musk’s increasingly polarizing behavior has led some loyalists to reconsider their allegiance. Reports of long-time Tesla owners trading in their Model S or Model 3 vehicles for alternatives from brands like Rivian, Lucid, or even legacy automakers (gasp!) signal a subtle but significant exodus. For these early adopters, Tesla’s allure has waned.

Meanwhile, the legacy automakers—Ford, GM, Volkswagen, the whole gas-guzzling gang—are flailing like fish on a dock trying to pivot to EVs. These dinosaurs spent a century refining the internal combustion engine. Now they're scrambling to retool factories, retrain workers, and revamp supply chains for battery-powered vehicles. Navigating disruption is not in their DNA. Their factories are creaking, their unions are confused, they don't have software expertise, and their EV game is stuck in neutral. The shift is proving costly and complex, with production delays and tepid consumer uptake of their offerings hampering progress.

Models like the Ford Mustang Mach-E or GM’s Silverado EV show promise, but these companies struggle to match Tesla’s scale and profitability in the EV space. As we've pointed out, Tesla's biggest advantage was that it didn't have to compete against, well, Tesla. Legacy auto's EV hesitation has created a gap between ambition and execution, leaving them vulnerable (especially to Chinese brands) in a rapidly electrifying market. It’s like watching your grandpa try a TikTok dance—cringe, awkward, and a little late to the party.

Ironically, the early adopters abandoning Tesla might be the golden ticket the wheezing car giants need to jumpstart their EV sales. These buyers are typically affluent, environmentally aware, and willing to embrace new technology—traits that align perfectly with the demographic legacy brands must court to gain traction in the EV space. These Tesla defectors value innovation and sustainability over brand loyalty and are not particularly price-sensitive. Legacy brands need these smug trailblazers to strut into dealerships and say, “Sure, I’ll take your overpriced electric box, at least it’s not a Tesla.” If Ford or GM can stop tripping over their own spark plugs, they might court this crowd and finally get some EV traction.

But don’t cry for Tesla just yet. 

Tesla’s greatest strength lies in its ability to convert skeptics—those who previously dismissed EVs as impractical or unappealing. Tesla is a gateway for drivers who never imagined ditching gasoline. Musk's swing to the right might have a few folks on that side of the aisle considering an EV. These are the folks who thought EVs were for granola-crunching hippies. Tesla’s not just selling cars; it’s converting heathens, one tire-squealing burnout at a time.

With compelling new lower-priced products like the anticipated $25,000 compact EV (Redwood / Model Next), Tesla is poised to attract a new wave of buyers, drawing in consumers who prioritize affordability. If the Cybercab launch this summer is successful, Tesla won't be able to build them fast enough.

Together, Tesla's shedding of early adopters and the appeal to the right might be a one-two punch that helps put more EVs with more nameplates on the road, removing more tailpipes and their emissions from the global fleet. The atmosphere doesn't care why someone stopped driving a vehicle with a belching tailpipe; only that they did.

disclaimer: I'm long TSLA.