Saturday, May 1, 2021

Everything You Want To Know About Tesla Powerwalls



We've installed Tesla Powerwalls on our home! Now that we've had them for several months, in this post, we'll explore all the cool things you can do with Powerwalls. Forgive the clickbait headline, but this will be a long post and it will cover a lot! Bookmark it for later reference if you'd like. I should also specify that this is my understanding of how things work. I'm not an electrician, all of this data should be double-checked with your installer.

Powerwalls are something that we first considered in 2018, ordered in late 2019, and had installed in late 2020. 

What Are Powerwalls? 

Let's start with the basics. Powerwalls are rechargeable batteries made by Tesla for residential home use. They can be charged by solar (if you have it) or by the grid. They can be used to provide power during a blackout and/or to time-shift your grid energy use.

We're primarily using them to time-shift our energy usage. I find this fascinating, sunlight that hits our roof at noon now powers our lights at 6PM. We've had solar since 2007, the panels allowed us to be solar-powered when the sun was shining (but only when the sun was shining). Now, however, with Powerwalls, we control when we're solar-powered. Put simply, we're able to store sunlight in a box 😁 

*The engineering part of my brain hates over-simplifications like that. The sunlight is not literally stored. The PV generates electricity and the electricity causes an electrochemical reaction within the battery known as recharging and we can use software to manage battery discharge. However, I have to admit that "Sunlight in a Box" is a simpler (and much more fun) message.

With solar panels, we were solar-powered when the sun was shining.
Now, with Powerwalls, we're solar-powered whenever we want.


Below we'll cover our installation, cost and tax incentives, time-of-use considerations, app improvement suggestions, home automation options, and answer many many more questions. 

Is There an App? 

Yes, Tesla has an app that you can use to check the status of your Powerwalls and configure them. This is the same app that you use for Tesla's cars. So if you already have a Tesla vehicle, you'll get a new page in your existing app. 

How It Works

I'm going to cover the concepts and I'm not going to go into specific Amps and Volts. That's not the important part of the story unless you are installing a system (and then I suggest another source). 

The heart of the system is the Tesla Energy Gateway. This may also be referred to as Home Energy Gateway or Backup Gateway. In the above image, this is labeled "Switchboard" and that is a relatively good description. It directs the energy flows between multiple energy sources and multiple energy receivers. The energy sources are the solar PV system (left), Powerwalls (right), and the grid (top). The energy receivers are the home (bottom), Powerwalls, and the grid. 

The Energy Gateway is the conductor of the energy orchestra that powers your home.

Looking at this energy source and receiver list, you'll see that Powerwalls and the grid can be either an energy source or an energy receiver. This gives the gateway the ability to use them for either purpose depending on the moment's energy need and the system settings (much more on this later). The Energy Gateway is the conductor of this energy orchestra. It coordinates the various energy sources and receivers based on many factors including your preferences, the battery charge state, the cost of grid energy... We'll cover this more in the next section, Modes, below.

AC vs DC


Now that we know what 'AC battery' means, this leads to the discussion of AC vs DC within the system. When you have DC coming from solar panels and (eventually) DC going into batteries, it seems odd to convert it to AC (by the solar inverter) and then convert it back to DC by the Powerwall to store it in the batteries, then when the battery discharges convert it to AC again for the home to use.

Each of these conversions has a small loss, then why do so many conversions? Answer: Compatibility. Our homes run on AC (Tesla/Westinghouse did win the current war after all); so having AC as the standard for energy exchanges makes it simple. This allows the Powerwalls to work with grid power or any standard solar inverter. The loss from conversions is a small price to pay for broad compatibility. There have been battery systems that charge the batteries with DC directly from the solar panels and these are more efficient, but the array size, inverter, and batteries have to be well-matched and you still need monitoring and other electronics to avoid overcharging and other problems. AC systems, on the other hand, allow independence of the battery and PV array sizes, the solar inverter is matched to the solar panels while the inverter within the Powerwall is matched to the battery capacity of the Powerwall. This independence makes Powerwalls great for retrofits as well as new installs.

How It Works: Energy Flow 

Below is one view of the energy flow from Tesla's app. It shows a simplified view of the energy flow orchestration. It's not all that different from the image above except that it has solar on top (where it belongs). In the app, this flow display is animated and you can see what is sourcing the power and what is sinking the power in near real-time. I occasionally find myself staring at this screen, watching the energy bubbles move about, it can be hypnotic.


The above image is an example of a cloudy winter day. The solar panels are charging up the battery so they can discharge later in the day at peak time and the grid is powering our home. As the loads and solar availability change throughout the day, the lines are redrawn and the flows redirect. If you don't like how it's going, you can change modes in the app. Speaking of modes, there are several options in the app, let's cover that in the next section.

Here's a fun example. The solar panels are powering our home, feeding the grid, and charging the Powerwalls (a little). This was occurring at 9:30 AM on a winter morning.

Modes (Self-powered, Cost Savings...) 

Our primary Powerwall use case is time-shifting solar energy use from mid-peak times to peak times. This will reduce stress on the grid, while reducing our electricity bill. However, this is just one of the use cases that the Tesla app supports, let's go through all 3 (or 4) of them.  

1: Backup Only

This one is very straightforward. The batteries charge up to 100% and stay at 90% plus, ready to power your home during a power outage. If you have solar, that's used to charge up the batteries; otherwise, they'll charge from the grid. If the system detects that the state of charge of the cells in the pack are unbalanced, it may cycle the battery by discharging below 20% and then recharging. This should be a very rare event, but if you see it happening, now you know the reason. 

2: Self-Powered

The goal of this mode is to minimize grid power usage. Your home is powered with solar whenever possible. Surplus solar is used to charge the batteries. If (and only if) the batteries are full, then surplus solar is sent to the grid.

Similarly, when there is not enough solar to power the home, the batteries are discharged. If the batteries are fully discharged (down to an outage reserve level that you can set anywhere from 10% to 100%), only then does the system draw power from the grid.

The simple explanation for this mode is "use the grid only as a last resort."

3: Advanced

This is where things get interesting. Under Advanced, there are two options: Balanced and Cost Savings. Both of these modes consider the price of electricity from your utility and how the price changes throughout the day. This is called time-of-use (TOU). Many utilities have a time-of-use fee structure with prices that vary throughout the day as well as on weekends and holidays. Additionally, there may be seasonal considerations. Below is an example from my local utility, Portland General Electric.

Time of Use


For some utilities, TOU is all that they offer. Others have flat-rate or TOU fee schedules and you can select which program you'd like to be on. My utility defaults to a flat rate. Every kWh costs the same (with some usage tiers) no matter what time of day you consume it. However, they also offer a TOU plan that you can opt into. The rule of thumb is that if you can move half or more of your electricity use to off-peak, then the TOU plan will likely save you money. For us, we have two EVs that charge up overnight. Then we have the solar panels that reduce our daytime grid demand, so TOU was worth it. Now with the Powerwalls, we'll be able to take weekend and mid-day sunshine and feed that into the grid during peak hours. This will further increase the savings that time of use offers us. After we have a few months of bills, I'll post a Powerwall savings blog entry.  

Sunday's sunshine will power our home on Monday morning during peak price hours before the sun comes up.
As you can see in the footnotes of the image above, Saturday has no peak hours and all-day Sunday is considered off-peak, making this the prime time to charge the Powerwalls to 100%. 

For Portland General customers on TOU, some holidays are off-peak all day. Some holidays? Here's the list: New Year’s Day, Memorial Day, Independence Day, Labor Day, Thanksgiving, and Christmas. 

Let's look at a simple example of load shifting. 

The above graph is from the Tesla app. It shows that from 8AM till 4PM we were generating solar electricity. This was a cloudy January day, so we didn't make much and you can see there was a short break in the clouds around 2PM where production spiked. Without Powerwalls, this energy would have been used to run our home or been feed into the grid for net-metering. Instead, this all went into the Powerwall (green below the line is charging). Then at 5PM, after the sun had set, Peak time started. This is when electricity is at its highest cost of the day. So, instead of using grid power, the Powerwalls were discharged to power our home for 3 hours, eliminating our evening peak load from the grid.

I have a 50% reserve setup, so if solar production is low for a given day, the Powerwall will stop discharging (even during Peak) when it gets to 50%. This way we always have at least a 50% charge if there's an unexpected power outage. 

Let's look at another, more interesting example of load shifting.

You can see that we have two peak times. During the AM peak, the green above the line shows that our home was powered by the Powerwalls until the sun came up. When the peak ended, the Powerwalls went into recharge mode, as you can see from the green below the line. Around 3 PM the Powerwalls were full. Then we hit the PM peak time. From 5PM till 8PM our home was once again battery-powered. These are peak demand times and we are using zero energy from the grid. This saves us money and reduces grid peak demand.  

Setting TOU Hours

The app interface to set the TOU schedule (below) is pretty straightforward. You grab and slide to set peak and off-peak. Anytime leftover is considered shoulder. 


Now that we've gone through TOU meanings and setup, we can finally get to the two Advanced Modes that depend on TOU. 

3a: Advanced (Cost Savings)


This is the mode we use. The utility sets the prices highest when they have the most anticipated demand. So by trying to reduce our bill, we also reduce stress on the grid. Removing our peak load means that it is a little less likely that the utility will have to spin-up the peak load power generation. This is when they must use 'peakers' to keep the grid operational. Peakers are often the dirtiest sources of electricity on the grid. They can be diesel generators or quick-fire natural gas plants that run at much lower (less efficient) temperatures than their high-efficient high-temp fellows.

3b: Advanced (Balanced)


Balance sounds nice. Who doesn't want balance? This mode attempts to reduce peak energy use and provide more self-power than the Cost Savings mode. This mode uses Tesla's Energy Forecasting to estimate future production, if it determines that you are likely to generate enough to cover the next peak event, then it will allow the battery to continue to discharge down to your reserve or the calculated value (whichever is higher). This increases your self-powered score and probably won't cost you much if any. 

In my tests with this mode, I found it often discharging the battery during the evening in off-peak hours. However, I'd prefer that it save that energy for our morning peak hours. However, the Tesla app only allows you to set one peak time (not two like our utility uses in the winter). So, until the app allows for more configuration, the Powerwall system does not have all the information that it needs to best orchestrate the energy flows and I'm going to avoid this option for now.

Picking A Powerwall Mode:
Backup Only, Self-Powered, Cost Savings, or Balanced


In the above image, it is peak time and the system is in Cost Savings mode. This means the batteries are being used to power the house and, as you can see, the solar power is currently flowing into the grid to offset our prior grid usage. This often brings up the question, can you get paid for supplying energy to the grid, so I'll cover that in the next section, but now let's finish looking at considerations for picking the mode that's best depending on your needs.

For us, having Powerwalls as backup power is a nice bonus, but not our primary reason for having Powerwalls. We'll keep something like 30% to 60% in reserve for black-out protection, but we want the batteries to actively participate in our home energy system, so we won't be in Backup Mode. 


Self-powered is a good goal, but this mode does not comprehend the TOU rate variations and so is not the mode that we'll be using. If you are not on a TOU program, this might be a good choice.

Advanced: If you are on a TOU plan, this is the mode you likely want to use. Either of these (Cost Savings or Balanced) are good options and most of the time they will yield very similar results. The only difference might be some grid feed-in occurring in Cost Savings mode vs a similar number of kWh going directly to the house in Balanced Mode. The differences between these modes would be based primarily on the forecast by Tesla for your energy use and energy production.  

The only reason that I hesitate to use Balanced Mode is that in the winter, we have two peak times and the app currently only supports one peak time. So I don't want the battery to continue to drain in the evening after the peak time has passed. I would rather use that energy the next morning during the morning peak before the sun has come up (even if that means I need to move the peak around manually in the app occasionally or use smart home automation - more on that below). Maybe I'll try balanced in the summer when we only have one peak time and lots of sunshine. So our selection for the best mode is Cost Savings.

Can You Get Paid For Supplying Energy To The Grid?

Maybe. This is highly dependent on your local utility. There are about 200 major utilities and more than 3000 in total in just the US. I'm not going to cover each of these, but I will tell you what to look for on your utility's website. There are two general feed-in recognition schemes: One, Renewable Feed-in Tariffs and two (the far more common) Net Metering. With a feed-in tariff, you can actually get paid. With net metering, you can reduce your bill. Let's look at each of these a little more.

Renewable Feed-in Tariffs

These programs pay you when you send renewable energy to the grid. They can even pay you more than the market rate for energy. The idea is that for the utility to generate renewable energy, it would have had to spend millions on a renewable plant and even more for on-going staffing and maintenance. Rather than spending this money to build and run their own plant, that same money goes to encourage homeowners and business owners to install renewables and feed their surplus into the grid.

The only drawback to these programs is that they are limited and infrequently offered. There's a fixed budget for these programs and they tend to go quickly. The last time that I could find this offered from Portland General was 2013, so it's not likely that there will be another one offered around here anytime soon.

One aside (because that's what we do here). It's called a "Renewable Feed-in Tariff." When I see the word tariff, I think of a tax or an import duty. I think of it as something that I have to pay. Well in this case it's the utility that is paying and you are the one getting paid.

Net Metering 

If you are not among the lucky few that got into a feed-in tariff plan or VPP, net metering is your next best option. This is a relatively simple scheme. When you are using electricity your meter is "spinning" forward. With net metering, when you are feeding the grid, you are spinning the meter backward. You are then billed for the final reading on the meter (the net of spinning forward part of the time and backward part of the time). However, if the meter result is negative (meaning you feed in more than you used), you receive a zero kWh bill and this extra is carried forward to the next month. Feeding in more than you use is also referred to as "banking kilowatt-hours" because they are saved for later months (like winter) when you may not generate more than you use. 

This carry-forward or banking is nice so that summer months can build up credits to be used in the winter. Here, in Oregon, the net metering "year" starts in April. Starting the spring is the best way to make sure all the banked credits have a chance to be used. If you still have credits leftover when the year ends, these are donated to the utility's low-income program.

TOU can add an extra layer of complexity to this. Each TOU zone (peak, mid-peak, off-peak) has its own mini net metering within that zone. For each bill, any surplus within a given zone drops to the next zone down. Check with your utility to see how they handle this case.  

Virtual Power Plants (VPP)

VPP: One more way you might get paid for owning Powerwalls. Some utilities are implementing virtual power plants (VPP). If you have Powerwalls and you join a VPP, the utility has the ability to charge/discharge your battery as the grid needs fluctuate. To compensate you for the extra wear and tear on your equipment, the utility will pay you or provide you the Powerwall at a discount (or even free). Participation payments may be a flat monthly rate (like PGE Smart Battery Program) or by kWh.

How Powerwalls Made Our Solar Worth 75% More

First, I have to say thanks for reading this far (or skipping to here, that's okay too). This has been a long one. Now that we've covered TOU and time-shifting with the Powerwalls, we can look at how this impacts our electricity bill. 

Here are our TOU rates: 
TOU Zone     Price per kWh
Peak 12.38¢
Mid-peak 7.051¢
Off-peak 4.128¢

Most of our solar production occurs during Mid-peak. That means that each solar kWh that we generate was offsetting 7¢ mid-peak energy from the utility. However, now, instead of using that solar energy immediately when it is generated, it gets stored in the Powerwall. Then it gets used during peak time. That makes our solar is worth 12.4¢ per kWh instead of 7¢. That's 75% more. 

Time-shifting with Powerwalls made our solar panels worth 75% more.
This time-shifting will mean that our peak usage will be zero on days with even a moderate amount of sunshine. This could make TOU an option for homes where it was otherwise not a good choice. 

Here Sunday is off-peak all day. This allows us to fully charge the battery for use throughout the rest of the week. So on Monday, during the morning peak, we've using energy that would have been offsetting 4¢, to offset 12¢ power. In that case, the Powerwalls are tripling the value of our solar energy. 

The extra cost savings is nice. It won't pay for the Powerwalls by any means, but cost savings was not the reason that we purchased these (it's just a nice side benefit). 

Powerwalls: Do They Have To Be Inside?

Powerwalls can be installed inside or outside, but there are considerations. Lithium batteries have a preferred operating temperature range. Luckily, Tesla is well aware of this from their other battery-powered products (cars) and Powerwalls have a thermal management system built-in. They can operate in temperatures from -4°F to 122°F. However, at extreme temperatures, the Powerwall may limit charge or discharge rate to improve its lifespan. If you are in an area that is often outside of the 32°F to 86°F range, Tesla recommends that Powerwalls are installed indoors. In extreme temperatures, the thermal management system runs to maintain the batteries, this effectively reduces the energy-in to energy-out efficiency of the system.

Here are some other considerations that Tesla recommends: For best performance, avoid installing Powerwall in locations exposed to direct sunlight. Humidity and rain do not pose a risk, Powerwall should not be installed in locations subject to flooding or near water sources such as downspouts, faucets, or sprinkler systems. In order to maintain proper ventilation, Powerwall should be kept clear of debris such as leaves, dense brush, and areas that accumulate snow.

How Can Powerwalls Be Mounted?

When you have multiple Powerwalls they can be mounted side-by-side on a wall or floor or stacked front-to-back on the floor.

4 Powerwalls Mounted Side-by-Side via Eric Schorvitz

Side-by-Side Mounting

When mounted side-by-side, each Powerwall must have enough clearance on the sides for electrical connections and proper ventilation. As you can see in Eric's install above, the Powerwalls have space between them. 

4 Powerwalls Mounted 2x2
Two Front-to-Back and Side-by-Side
via Revision Energy 

Front-to-Back Mounting

When stacked front-to-back, up to three Powerwalls can be grouped together. For this stacked method, the Powerwalls are floor-mounted or concrete pad mounted and anchored to the wall. Stacks cannot be hung on the wall. The stacked Powerwalls are joined together with special hardware. This method may use fewer conduits in some installations.

How Loud Are They?

Noise production: up to 40 dBA (quieter than most refrigerators)

Powerwalls do make some noise. They have fans and pumps that are used as part of the internal temperature control system. They are not that loud, but you should consider this when you are selecting the mounting location. You would not want Powerwalls mounted near a bedroom window, for example. 

How Big Are Powerwall 2s? 

L x W x D
45.3" x 29.6" x 5.75"
1150 mm x 753 mm x 147 mm

How Much Do They Weigh? 

251.3 lbs / 114 kg (current) 

When initially introduced the weight was 269 lbs / 122 kg.

What Color Are They?

There are two color options: white or red. White ones are the standard units. Red ones are the signature units and supposedly only available via the referral program. However, I have heard of cases where contractors have had several red units available. Additionally, many people that earned a Powerwall via the referral program were not in a position to install it, so they occasionally appear on eBay and the like. 

Are Signature Powerwalls Actually Signed? 

Powerwalls that were earned via the referral program and delivered in 2018 or earlier were signed by Elon Musk, JB Straubel, & Franz von Holzhausen. However, now, despite the name, the signature units currently being delivered are no longer actually signed 😢

Powerwall 1 vs Powerall 2

The Powerwall 1 was released in 2015. Tesla quickly followed this with, the current version, Powerwall 2. This second version made several improvements. It has more than twice the storage capacity packed into a smaller space and it has triple the power output over Powerwall 1. Powerwall 2 has a more robust cell chemistry and, unlike its predecessor, uses the same cell type for both systems intended for backup only purposes as well as for daily use time-shifting systems. 

The only thing Powerwall 1 had that might be considered better than 2 is a stylish curved cover, reminiscent of the car. It looked really cool but didn't allow the units to be stacked. 

What Battery Chemistry Does Powerwall 2 Use? 
Or: Does the Powerwall Use the Same Batteries as Tesla's Cars?

Tesla uses a variety of battery cell chemistries including Nickel Manganese Cobalt (NMC), Nickel Cobalt Aluminum (NCA), and Lithium Iron Phosphate (LiFePO 4 battery) aka LFP battery (Lithium Ferrophosphate).

Tesla's vehicles are far more demanding on batteries than are Powerwalls. With Powerwall, they don't have to accelerate from zero to 60 in 2.3 seconds. They don't have to absorb massive regen one moment and then discharge the next. The flow of energy into and out of Powerwalls is controlled and limited. Additionally, Powerwalls also don't have to be carried around, so the energy to weight ratio (aka gravimetric energy density) is far less important than it is for a vehicle battery pack.

All this is to say that any of the chemistries that would work in a car, would easily work in a Powerwall. LFP would likely be the best candidate, if for no other reason than they tend to be the cheapest. LFP is also more tolerant to sitting at a high state of charge without impacting the lifespan of the battery. 

While trying to find out which cell chemistry is used in Powerwall 2 packs, I found conflicting information. I could not find an official statement from Tesla naming the specific chemistry. Some sites said that they were using NMC (Nickel Manganese Cobalt) cells and other sites said they were using LFP (Lithium Ferrophosphate). It's possible that both are correct and that Tesla has been utilizing each cell chemistry at various times. They certainly would have battery management systems available for each. However, LFP generally does not have as high of a peak power output as NMC. The 7kW peak power output (~50% C rate) is well within LFP's capability. So, it could be either, but more sources indicated that NMC was Tesla's chemistry of choice in Powerwalls. If Tesla used NMC in some and LFP in others, there would be a weight difference and I think they would need to list the two weight options, which I have not seen, so I assume that they are using NMC and only NMC (for now). 

Since we're talking about cell chemistries, it's important to discuss Cobalt. 
Cobalt is a conflict mineral and it's expensive. These two factors are compelling many cell manufacturers, including Tesla, to develop methods to reduce or eliminate Cobalt from their cells. LFP, for example, is Cobalt-free and the energy density has been increasing with each year as battery tech continues to advance. In 2020, CATL announced a cobalt-free battery for use in EVs. These would not be for 300 mile+ range vehicles, but these are great for more affordable EVs and perfect for Powerwalls.

Can I Buy Powerwalls for my Existing Solar? 

On April 24th, 2021 Tesla updated their policy to sell Solar and Powerwall as a bundled package and only as a bundled package. This was a big change from their previous policy. There was a large demand from people with existing solar PV systems to add Powerwalls. After the power outages that much of the US experienced in February of this year, many people (with or without solar) ordered Powerwalls.

This demand put Tesla in a pickle, they had customers installing solar (panels or glass roof) that wanted Powerwalls as well. They were supply-constrained and made the choice to favor their solar customers, rather than other potential customers. This is the most effective use of their limited supply. The Tesla crew is already there installing the solar system, rather than scheduling a job just for the Powerwalls. I suspect, as their supply increases, Powerwall sales may open up again, but I wouldn't count on it since batteries will be in constraint for several years as Tesla continues to sell more vehicles.  

There are some 3rd party installers that have a small supply of Powerwalls, if you are lucky enough to find one of them, you may be able to have Powerwalls installed on an existing system.  

Other Fun Stuff (Storm Watch and EV Charging)

Storm Watch


Storm Watch is a great feature of Tesla Powerwalls. Since Powerwalls are internet-connected devices, they will receive a signal when an outage is likely in your area, then the Powerwalls will top up to be fully ready to power your home if there's a blackout in your area. This is the only time (if you have solar) that Powerwalls are allowed to recharge from grid energy. 

The cool thing about this feature is that it is not just used for storms. Perhaps this mode should be called "Disaster Watch" since storms are just one of the disasters that cause them to charge up. Tesla has access to alert forecasts from the National Weather Service; these alerts cover severe winter weather, flooding, thunderstorms, tornados, hurricanes, fires, tsunamis, drought, general emergency alerts... This means, even if you miss the news, your Powerwall is watching out for you (if you enable this feature). 

EV Charging


Tesla's cars have big batteries and long-range. The two Tesla EVs in our garage are the equivalent to about 12 Powerwalls. That means, if they were to start charging during a power outage, the cars could quickly drain our 3 Powerwalls, leaving us with no energy for our home during an outage. Knowing that Tesla Powerwall owners are likely to be Tesla vehicle owners, Tesla thought of this situation and gave you a way to manage it as you'd like.

The great thing about having the cars and Powerwalls in the same connected ecosystem is that they can work together. If there's a power outage, you can control whether or not the car will charge based on how charged up the Powerwalls are. Additionally, when the car is charging from the Powerwall, the power level that the car requests is adjusted to allow for load sharing with the house. You would not want the Powerwall to shut down because the load had exceeded the maximum that it can supply (5kW continuous, 7kW bursts per Powerwall).

10 Powerwalls (and an EV charging station) via Jason Bloomberg on TMC

The "Vehicle Charging During Power Outage" setting allows the car to charge when the Powerwalls are near full. This has an advantage that might not be obvious at first glance. If the Powerwalls are approaching full, charging the electric cars makes room in the Powerwall for more solar to be stored and, if we need to leave, our cars will be charged up.

Additionally, if we really needed to, we could power some of our needs from our cars with an inverter plugged into the 12V outlet.

Solar Gateway 

There's supporting hardware that comes with your Powerwall. One of these extra items is a data gateway called "Solar Gateway". This is data gateway connects your Powerwall system to the internet. This is how your Tesla app connects to your Powerwall system. This allows you to set the Powerwall mode and see the current state. The data gateway also collects all the energy telemetry streamed from your Home Energy Gateway and sends it to Tesla's servers. From there, your Tesla app can access that data in beautiful multicolor graphs.

How Many Powerwalls Do I Need? 


There are at least a couple of ways that you could determine how many Powerwalls you should get. The first, and simpler method, is (assuming you have solar) to divide the size of your PV system in kW by 5 and round up. For example, if you have a 6kW system, you'll need 2 Powerwalls; if you have a 14kW PV system, you'll need 3 Powerwalls. This method ensures that your Powerwalls will be able to absorb all the electrons your PV system excites during peak output.

The second method is a little more complicated. This method asks the question, how long do you want the Powerwalls to last when the grid is down. To answer this, the first question is do you want to back up your whole house or just the essentials? This will greatly impact the number of Powerwalls that you need. As you can see in the image below, there are options. You can back up everything or just your refrigerators and furnace. Running your entire home will obviously require more Powerwalls than just running the essentials. If you want to keep an AC unit running for hours, you'll likely need 3+ units. If you have a small home and/or consistent solar production, one Powerwall might be enough. Tesla has a design guide that will help you determine how many you should have. 

 

The next question is "do you have solar?" With solar panels, you have energy coming into the system, even during an outage. That helps keep the lights on. However, here in northern Oregon, our wintertime solar production is generally low. We are most likely to have a power outage during a snow or rain and wind storm, this is also when solar production would be at its lowest. So, we'll need a few more kWhs of storage for the winter months.

Understand Your Energy Use

To determine how many Powerwalls you need, you'll need to understand a little bit about your energy usage. 

Seasonal Considerations

Take a look at your electric bill and see how many kilowatt-hours you use on a typical day. If possible, check your electricity bills from different seasons. Do you have an AC unit that runs full blast all summer, do you have electric heating that runs all winter? Take the worst one and then determine how many days of backup energy you'd like to have. For us, our worst grid energy use month is January because that's when solar production is at its lowest. We run the AC frequently in July through September, but the solar production during this time more than compensates for this extra energy use.

Taking our worst month (Jan) we use about 50kWh per day. Our 3 Powerwalls only have ~40kWh, so these 3 would last less than a day if we had a blackout, no solar production, and continued to use electricity at our normal rate. However, we can relatively easily cut our daily energy use down to ~15 kWh per day for a short duration. This would allow us to stretch the Powerwall out for nearly 3 days. We'd likely have some solar production over a 3 day period too, stretching our blackout tolerance period even further. 

We were able to test these assumptions in February when we (and much of the US) lost power temporarily due to an arctic blast. 

How To Stretch The Powerwall Duration

If you want to make your Powerwall last as long as possible during a power outage, you need to do more than just turn things off. Many devices have standby energy draws even when they are turned off, this is called a Vampire Draw. To avoid these vampires, you can unplug the device or, even better, turn off the circuit breaker they are on. Printers, computers, TV, and many appliances continue to draw power even if they appear to be off.  

Try a dry-run: If possible, it might be nice to spend some time at your breaker box and get to know which items are on which circuits. Make a list of essentials and a list of the circuits that you can turn off during an outage without having the food in your frig spoil or your home temperature becoming unbearable. If you can do this dry run, when you are in 'essentials only' mode, go to your meter and see what your energy usage looks like. Make sure to monitor it for a few minutes since a frig compressor or the like might cycle on or off after a minute or two. 

One Powerwall?

Even just a single Powerwall is very useful. If you have solar, the Powerwall allows the solar to stay operational during an outage. If you have a gas furnace, a single Powerwall allows the fans to run and for the furnace to heat your home. It can back up your refrigerator (especially an energy-efficient one) and keep your food from going bad. However, a single Powerwall is only 13.5 kWh of energy. That's just over a dollar's worth of electricity here. You can't expect it to run your home for days. 

With just one Powerwall, the system is limited to 5 kW of sustained output (with spikes of 7 kW allowed for up to 10 seconds). This means that you'll likely have to add an inrush current limiter or "slow start" unit to your air conditioner or any water pumps. During the first few seconds of their start-up, AC units and other large motors draw a significant amount of power. This can exceed the power that a single Powerwall can supply, but a slow start unit can allow the motor to spread that load out allow it to be started without exceeding what a single Powerwall can provide.

Although even just a single Powerwall is very useful, it has a rather limited amount of storage, so I would only recommend one Powerwall if you have a small energy-efficient home or if that's all you can afford. If you're considering more than one Powerwall, check out the next section. 

More Than One Powerwall?

You can have up to 10 Powerwalls in a standard residential installation. Additional equipment may be required for more than 6 units. Each Powerwall adds another 13.5 kWh of usable energy and it adds another 5 kW of power to the sustained output. This additional power output likely means that with 3 plus units you won't need a slow start device on AC units and the additional energy means that you'll be able to keep the lights on longer. 

We opted for three Powerwalls. This is a sweet spot for functionality and cost, IMHO. Although, now that I have them installed, I think I'd order 5 or 6 if I were ordering it now. Just as buying an EV, you never regret having more capacity. With 5 or 6 Powerwalls, I could leave the equivalent of 3 fully charged and then have the other 2 or in play for daily time-shifting of grid demand energy use.  

How Long Will Powerwalls Power My House?

I don't know, I've never been to your house☺But seriously, there are many considerations. What's your home energy use, do you have solar, what's the production, will the Powerwalls need to heat or cool themselves?...

The analysis above for "How Many Powerwalls Do I Need?" walks you through how to determine this.

Is There Energy Loss? or What's the Round Trip Efficiency? 

All systems have some energy loss. As we discussed in the AC/DC section above, the energy that flows in and out of the Powerwall has to be converted. These conversions have some loss. The round trip efficiency is 90%. 

The Powerwalls additionally have to maintain their internal temperature control, this too uses energy in extreme weather conditions (especially in outdoor installations). 

Where Can I Order Powerwalls?

From Tesla! Tesla can install them or work with a certified contractor to have them installed. Many local solar installers also can install energy storage systems from Tesla or others. 

How long is a Tesla Powerwall lifespan?

Tesla guarantees that each Powerwall will retain 80% of its capacity over 10 years. That means, after 10 years, you can expect at least 10.8 kWh of storage per unit. 

Power and Energy Explained (kWh vs kW)

There are two important items in the specs that you should understand. Energy and Power. 

Energy is the capacity of the unit. Using a fluid analogy, think of this as the volume (liters, gallons) that it can hold. Energy is measured in kilowatt-hours (kWs). 

Power is the rate at which energy is moved into or out of the unit. Continuing the fluid analogy, think of this as the flow rate that the bucket is being drained (or filled). Power is measured in kilowatts (kW). 

If you had a full 1 kWh battery and you were able to drain it at a consistent rate of 1 kW, it would take 1 hour to drain the battery completely. 

Power and Energy Specifications

Each Powerwall 2 has a usable capacity of 13.5 kWh of capacity. For home use, you can gang up to 10 of them together for 135 kWh. 

Powerwall 2 has a sustained recharge/discharge rate of 5kW and a peak rate of 7kW that can be used for up to 10 seconds. This peak rate is often needed when starting an electric motor such as an AC unit or heat pump. Just as with the energy capacity, this power level is also additive. With 10 units you'd be able to support a sustained 50kW load with spikes up to 70kW.

UPDATE (April 21st, 2021): Elon Musk tweeted today that based on data that Tesla has collected, the Power rating of Powerwall 2 will be increased by up to 50% in ambient temperatures. A firmware update will be coming to all Powerwall 2s with these new specifications and we'll know more soon. This is the great thing about having an internet-connected system.

How long does it take to charge a Tesla Powerwall?

Powerwalls have 13.5 kWhs of storage and they can charge (or discharge) at a rate of 5kW. That means they can be charged from empty to full in about 3 hours assuming full power is provided. If they are being charged from solar, it depends on the day's weather and the capacity of your PV system. 

When Storm Mode is activated, the Powerwalls charge from the grid. When our system charged up during the Valentine's Day outage, our 3 Powerwalls charged at 10 kW. That's only 2/3rds of the sustained maximum. At that rate, it would take just over 4 hours to charge up to full. 

Can I use a Tesla Powerwall to go off-grid?

The short answer is: yes, you can. The long answer is: It depends. Some states require you to be grid-connected if electric service is available in your area. Even if you have enough solar and storage, to be off-grid, these states might require you to attach. 

Another consideration is cost. Depending on your energy needs, you may need a significant number of Powerwalls. Staying connected to the grid allows you to use the grid effectively as additional energy storage via net metering or as a supplemental supply during low solar production months. 

Can I use a Tesla Powerwall without solar?

Yes, you can!* Powerwalls can be used without solar. They can be used either for backup or for timeshifting energy use. Without solar, you'd need significantly more kWh (more Powerwalls) to have a significant backup duration. 

* If allowed by local state/regional laws. 

Currently, Tesla is only selling Powerwall 2s when they are bundled with solar. Some authorized independent contractors may still have Powerwalls in stock, so it is possible to have them installed even if you don't have solar. By the time you are reading this, Tesla may have relaxed their policy and may allow sales without solar, so it's best to check on that directly. 

Can I use a Powerwall with a Generator?

Yes, you can have a backup for your backup.
 
Powerwall 2 can be added to a system with a backup generator connected with an external Automatic Transfer Switch (ATS) or a Manual Transfer Switch (MTS). If you have an MTS, you must (as the name implies) manually flip the switch to power your home from the generator. Note that Powerwalls should not be charged from a generator. 

In an outage, Powerwall responds immediately and provides backup power before the generator can detect the outage. The generator should be turned on only after the Powerwall has a low charge, or if loads exceed Powerwall's maximum output.

When grid power returns, the generator should be turned off and Powerwall can resume normal operation (charging from solar or the grid). 

Can I Access My Powerwalls If My Internet Is Down?

Yes, you can. You don't have as much control as you do with the app, but you can access the Tesla Energy Gateway (TEG) via your home intranet. Just follow these steps to connect the TEG to your local WiFi and you can access it locally to see what's going on. 

Local Network Access Screen


Can I use a Powerwall with Residential Wind or Hydro?

No. 

As I write this, Tesla's FAQ says, "Powerwall does not currently work with existing battery systems or other (non-solar) renewable energy sources, such as wind or hydro." 

I assume that Tesla is not supporting this because they are smaller markets than solar. As AC-connected batteries, as long as the power rating is observed, the system should have broad compatibility; but if it's not supported by Tesla, you could void your warranty if you use it this way.

During an outage, Powerwall 2 does some smart things with the electrical frequency to ensure that solar production does not exceed the battery's storage capacity. If your wind or hydro inverter didn't respond to these frequency changes in the same way that solar inverters respond, this could create a hazardous situation, so I would not recommend it unless Tesla announces explicit support for specific inverters at some future date.   

Will There Be a Tesla Powerwall 3?

Tesla has not announced any plans for a Powerwall 3 AFAIK. Battery technology is advancing quickly, and Tesla iterates quickly so I wouldn't be surprised if a new version were announced. Stationary storage is not as demanding, as automotive so this product could have a longer revision lifecycle.

Powerwall+

I have been working on this article for days, and now, just hours before this was to be published, there's a leak about a "Powerwall+". To be clear, this is just a leak/rumor and little is known about it as I write this, so take a full grain of salt with this section. Here's the leaked document: 
As you may know, Tesla recently started making their own inverters and they make the energy gateway. Additionally, Tesla recently announced that all solar installations would include at least one Powerwall. One of the stated reasons was that this would ease installation. Taking all of this into account, this leak makes sense. Rather than installing a separate Energy Gateway and inverter, combine them into one unit (which they can do now since they make both) and simplify the installation. 

According to the leaked spec sheet above, there is also a soft start (aka inrush current limiter) built in. These are used to prevent motors (such as those in pumps or air conditioners) from drawing too much current too quickly on start-up and damaging the batteries. This means that Tesla would not have to go install these individually on each pond pump, sump pump, and air conditioner at the site. This will further speed up installation. 

The above side-by-side shows how this simplifies things: fewer components, less conduit... Although, this side-by-side is not exactly a fair comparison since the old install has a separate subpanel. If you only want to backup part of your home, you'll likely need that in the new Powerwall+ installations too. 

It is possible that this new arrangement might also allow the Powerwall to charge directly from DC from the solar panels, but that is just conjecture at this time and we'll have to wait for the official details about Powerwall+ from Tesla. It's exciting to see Tesla continue to innovate (assuming this leak turns out to be true).

Ordering & Installation

When ordering, you have to decide how many Powerwalls you want. Tesla's site helps you to figure this out. On the site, you select full home backup or partial backup. You let them know if you have a solar PV system and, if so, the zip code for a sola production estimate. See the How Many Powerwalls Do I Need? section above for pros and cons to having from 1 to 10 Powerwalls. You can order  Powerwalls and/or solar from here.

Our Ordering & Installation

We ordered our Powerwalls on December 8th, 2019. 

Our installation happened on the last day of 2020. Getting it installed at the end of the year is nice in that it reduces the amount of time from payment to receiving our related tax incentive (more on tax incentives in the next section), but it was stressful having it come down to the last day of the year when it was unclear if the tax incentive was going to be reduced or not in 2021.

The process was a little complicated by a couple factors: one, we have two solar PV systems on our home; two, the fact that we have a free Powerwall through the referral program (great to get one free, but it bumped us out of the normal process).

They came out the day before the planned install day to make a plan (where to hang them, where to put the new circuit breaker and Energy Gateway, how to get the wiring to the existing service panel...).

The next day they arrived before 9AM and worked all day. Just after 5PM the install was done. They confirm the functionality with a quick power outage simulation and that I could see the system in the app.

Powerwall Cost & Tax Incentives

Tesla's price for Powerwalls has increased a couple of times as their popularity (order backlog) increased.

Cost

Here's the current price as of March 2021: 
  • Base Unit Cost: $7,500
  • Additional Required Hardware: $1,000
  • Installation: $3,500
  • Total Costs: $12,000
These prices do change periodically, so do check the latest price on Tesla's site. In January of 2021, Tesla increased the price per Powerwall from $7000 to $7500. This was only a few months after increasing the price by $500 in October of 2020.

More recently, due to a significant increase in demand after the massive Texas outage, Tesla has temporarily restricted sales to solar installations only. It is too bad that they are supply-constrained. However, given this constraint, it makes sense to prioritize solar installations. Powerwalls can be used without solar, but 'with solar' is where they really shine and they would not want to delay a solar installation because Powerwalls were not available.  

Tax Incentives

Depending on where you live, there could be state, federal, and/or utility incentives that apply to Powerwalls. As I write this, there are many discussions about new green initiatives happening in DC, so there may be new, more generous, incentives coming soon. Some of the solar incentives also apply to energy storage systems like Powerwall when they are installed as part of the solar PV system so make sure to look in the solar incentives for energy storage incentives too. Here are a few links to check out to see if the incentives could apply to you.


The federal incentive is up to 26% of the cost. The Oregon incentive is a little more complicated. Here are the residential rules: 
Rebates may cover up to 40% of the net cost installed for a customer that is not considered low- or moderate-income. Up to 60% of net cost for a low- or moderate-income customer may be covered. 
For residential projects, the maximum rebate is $5,000 for a solar electric system and $2,500 for an energy storage system.
Additionally, your local utility may have incentives too. Currently, my local utility, Portland General, has two incentive programs. The first only applies to homes within their "Smart Grid Test Bed." This incentive is up to $3000. The second incentive they have is income-based and part of the "Solar Within Reach" program. This incentive is up to $5000. You can find out more about these programs here
 
So, if you're in Oregon, and qualify, up to $2,500 could be cover by the state's energy storage incentive. Let's see how these would apply to the $12,000 single Powerwall example from the cost section. 
  • Initial Cost: $12,000
  • Federal Incentive: $3120
  • Oregon Incentive: $2500
  • Final Cost: $6380
So the Oregon state and US federal incentives, in this example, nearly cut the cost in half. Subtract another $3000 or $5000 if you are qualified for the utility incentives and you can have that $12,000 battery for as little as $3380 or $1380! 

Home Automation

If you love the tech and you have Powerwalls, you might want to add them to your home automation. One of the cool things about having a Tesla product is that there's a community that's passionate about these products and making cool toys and accessories for them.

Here are a few home automation options to enhance your Powerwall ownership: 

Tesla's app has relatively good control options for the Powerwalls, but it is missing a few things (see suggestions in the next section). If you'd rather now wait around for app updates, you can control the system yourself. You can add custom schedules for changing modes (Backup-Only, Self-Powered, Advanced Balanced, or Advanced Cost Savings). You can also adjust the reserve level throughout the day as you see fit. One final cool thing you can do with this is to shut off other smart devices in your home if the Powerwall detects a power outage.

You can query the status of the Powerwall and write code or scripts to respond to changes in the Powerwall or the grid. You can monitor things including State-of-charge, current load, frequency, solar power level, and more.

Collect, analyze, and display data from your Powerwall in a dashboard view. You can track your energy costs and savings and watch your Powerwall state-of-charge throughout the day. 

Use a Rasberry Pi to control programable LED strips based on the status of your solar and Powerwalls. Have a bar of green LEDs to show your Powerwall charge/discharge power level, a yellow bar to show your solar production, a blue bar to show your home load, white to show how much you are feeding to/from the grid. How you configure it is up to you!

If you've found others (or made your own), leave a link in the comments.
 

App Improvement Suggestions

The Tesla app is great. I occasionally find myself watching the energy flow like a high tech lava lamp. The time-of-use configuration is intuitive and simple to use with easy sliders and a nice visual indicator along with text indications. That said, there's always room for improvement. 

I looked at the app update history and the trend is a new release of energy features every two months or so. That's great, it means that the app is improving and there's a good chance that some of the limitations that I'm seeing now might be addressed in a future release. Here are the things that I'd like to see. 
  • Automatic TOU configuration 
    I'd like the app to be able to gather time-of-use information from my utility. I know there are thousands of utilities and this would be very impractical if every utility published this data in unique ways, but there are a few standards that some of them support. These are used by some internet of things devices for energy monitoring. This would allow the Tesla system to automatically update for seasonal changes, weekends, holidays... without user intervention. 
  • More TOU options (1/3) - Multiple Peak Times
    The above is the holy grail; it gets the info directly from the utility daily and it knows-all. Short of this, I'd like a little more configurability in the Advanced mode. Specifically, our utility has morning and evening Peak Rate times during the winter. The app needs support for this. 
  • More TOU options (2/3) - Saturday vs Sunday
    The app has one setting for "weekend." However, my local utility (and I assume many others) has a different price schedule for Saturday than it has for Sunday. Neither have peak hours, but most of Saturday is a mid-peak (or "shoulder" in Tesla's language), whereas all of Sunday is off-peak.
  • More TOU options (3/3) - Holidays 
    The app has no concept of a holiday. My utility, however, has several holidays that are off-peak all day. Since I have no way to tell the app this directly, it will not treat them as off-peak. This means that the Powerwall would start discharging at a time that it thinks is a peak time, rather than saving those kWhs for the next day. 
  • Powerflow: As I mentioned above, the power flow screen is hypnotic, I love it. However, it is missing one vital thing, the battery charge level. I find that I'm flipping back to the gateway screen to see this. The simple answer is to add the charge % (SOC) after the word 'Powerwall' at the bottom of the screen.
  • Battery SOC Graph: The energy flow graph shows when the battery is charging or discharging. This is great but much like the Powerflow screen, it would be nice to have battery state-of-charge information too. Specifically, I'd like to see how often the pack is hitting 100% full in a day. Based on this, I might adjust my reserves and more or less of the battery "in-play." 

Fixed schedules vs real-time demand 

Currently, the TOU systems that electrical utilities use are based on a fixed time schedule. This is not an accurate picture of the grid's state at any moment in time. My local utility has a "Rush Hour" program where they can send a signal to the smart thermostats of participating customers to time-shift their AC use. Participating customers are paid for their participation and they tend to have the AC come on sooner to pre-cool the home before the anticipated Rush Hour. This is not on a fixed schedule; instead, it's based on the weather forecast for the day. This is not real-time, but at least it's "same day." 

Powerwall could take this to the next level and allow the utility to change the home's grid load within seconds. Virtual power plants that gang groups of homes with Powerwalls under some level of control by a central utility currently exists in Hawaii, Orange County, Santa Barbara, Redwood Coast, and (the big 50,000 homes with solar PV and Powerwalls) across South Australia.

Will This Impact My Property Value, Taxes, or Insurance?

You, generally, have to pull permits for a project like this. That means the county or local government is aware of this upgrade project, so it could impact your property assessment.

As for insurance, you'll want to check to make sure that the Powerwalls are covered by your homeowner's insurance.

Is It Worth It to Buy Powerwalls?

That was a lot of information, but, in the end, it all comes down to 'is it worth it?'  For me, the answer is a solid Yes. I love the fact that our lights and furnace will stay on during a blackout. I love the tech. I love that we can utilize more of our solar directly and when we want it. 

If you want battery backup for blackout prevention, Yes. 
If you want to improve your energy independence, Yes. 
If you want to reduce your peak demand footprint, Yes.
If you want to reduce your carbon footprint, Yes.
If you want integration of your car and your home energy storage system, Yes. 
If you want to save money, Maybe. 

Powerwalls are game-changers for homeowners with solar. You have blackout protection, your solar continues to work during a power outage, and you can time-shift your solar. 

If you want Powerwalls, click this link to use my referral code.

Alternatives to the Tesla Powerwall

Tesla Powerwalls are not the only energy storage option available. LG Chem, Sonnen, and Powervault all offer home battery products with a variety of capacities and price ranges. If you're just looking for energy storage, they're worth consideration.  

If you own a Tesla vehicle, these alternatives won't integrate with your car to coordinate vehicle charging or share an app, so you'd be giving up this Tesla ecosystem integration. 

---------C= 

Disclosures: 
This article may include Amazon Associates links.
I'm Long Tesla

Saturday, April 24, 2021

40 Thousand Miles In A Tesla Model X

My daily driver is a 2016 Tesla Model X 90D. Although the term 'daily driver' doesn't mean as much as it used to since I work from home nowadays #pandemic. I've done annual reviews of the vehicle each year since I purchased it, you can see them here: 1, 2, 3, 4. 

Painted Hills biking adventure with our Model X

This is not an annual review, it's just a quick post, not for an annual milestone, but for an actual mileage milestone. The odometer just rolled over 40 thousand miles. A record by no means; but these miles have been fun. We drove to Grants Pass in the winter, the Painted Hills in the desert of eastern Oregon in the summer, brought home an Xmas tree on the roof, we pulled our camper, went to Comic-Con in San Diego, to Crater Lake, the Oregon Caves, through a wildlife safari, to a butterfly pavilion, and to Thor's Well on the Oregon coast. We used biohazard mode during the Oregon fires. And it was all fueled by free Superchargers and the solar panels on our roof.

I've continued to track the battery degradation. As you can see in the graph below, it has started to level off. 


The other degradation charts that I've shared were time-based. This one is mileage-based. Here's to 40 thousand more miles of fun before I upgrade to a 2025 Model X with full self-driving

Disclosure: I'm long TSLA

Saturday, April 17, 2021

Moore's Law, Wright's Law, Swanson's Law, & Jevons Paradox: How these axioms will impact EVs and our future energy system

Original scaling predictions by Gordon Moore
This became the basis for Moore's Law

In this post, we'll look at a few "laws*" that have (and will continue to) transform our world. We'll look at how these laws (or more accurately, axioms) came about, how they've impacted society, and how these laws apply to Electric Vehicles (EVs) --  since that's kind of what we're about here. 

Moore's Law 

Moore's Law is the most well-known axiom we'll examine. It's named after Gordon Moore, the co-founder of Fairchild Semiconductor and Intel, as well as the former CEO of the latter.

In 1965, Moore observed that the number of transistors in integrated circuits had been doubling about every two years. Moore projected that this exponential growth would continue for at least the next decade.

Now, 5+ decades later, the trend has continued and has had huge implications on the cost of computing power. This exponential growth means that the phone you likely have in your pocket is more powerful than the computers used to land the first humans on Luna. Compared to 1965 (when Moore made the observation), computers are now everywhere and have changed the way we live. Moore's Law has resulted in lower cost, lower power, and better performance computing. It has allowed chips to be used in nearly everything we own from toys and cars to appliances. This has been a springboard for innovation: the internet, smartphones, the cloud, console & computer gaming, and even the current streaming wars are all the result of Moore's law.

How does this apply to EVs?

With all of their high-tech features, Tesla's vehicles have been called computers on wheels. The impact of computing on personal transportation is most obvious in a tech-forward car like a Tesla, but computer chips are used throughout all modern vehicles for functions like antilock breaks and airbag deployment. This became painfully apparent in early 2020 when several auto manufacturers had to shut down production due to a worldwide chip shortage.

Looking forward, the increase in computing performance and cost reduction will enable better in-car entertainment, communications, and (eventually) autonomous driving.

Wright’s Law

Next, we'll look at Wright's Law. Theodore Paul Wright, also known as T. P. Wright, was a U.S. aeronautical engineer. He had a storied career at Curtiss-Wright Aeroplane Company, where he started out as a Naval Aircraft Inspector and moved up to Chief Engineer. From there Wright became a member of the National Defense Advisory Committee under President Franklin D. Roosevelt. In this administration, he had several roles and titles primarily focused on the production of military aircraft.

It was during this time that Wright determined that for every doubling of production, the labor requirement per airplane was reduced by 10-15%. In 1936, he detailed his findings in a paper titled “Factors Affecting the Costs of Airplanes.” The paper described that the cost of each unit produced decreases as more units are produced.

This is the "economy of scale" axiom. As you make more of something, you can expect the per-item cost of manufacturing to drop. This follows that the manufacturing equipment would have higher utilization; you'd be able to buy materials in bulk and receive better pricing from suppliers, etc. As production grows, optimizations for scalability allow manufacturing costs to be further amortized.  Thereby, creating a positive feedback loop where more production leads to lower labor and supplies costs, allowing for more production.

As production costs drop, prices can be reduced. As prices are reduced, it becomes easier to displace older (stagnated) technologies. Additionally, with lower prices, new uses are found, thereby creating growth opportunities (TAM expansion), further allowing production to expand, further reducing costs.

One of the lesser-known aspects of Wright's paper is that it lays out a “we learn by doing” principle. The lesson is that it's better to go forward with an 80% plan rather than waiting for a 100% complete plan. Until you start, you don't know all the issues you'll encounter, so rather planning out the final 20%, you could instead start and find out where you really need to focus your attention. This paper was published 64 years before the Agile Manifesto, yet they share this start-early core principle. You cannot know the unknown unknowns without 'doing'. “Ready, Fire, Aim” is a similar concept.

How does this apply to EVs?

Batteries are currently the largest cost factor for EVs. The battery pack in a vehicle is a significant factor in its range, performance, and cost. Luckily, batteries have been following Wright's Law. Production has been steadily increasing and costs have been on a steady decline since the start of this generation of EVs began a decade ago. EVs started on the high end of the price range. To date, affordable EVs have been ranged limited (sub 100 miles). By mid-decade, this will change. EVs will be as affordable as similarly equipped (and ranged) gas cars. By 2030, EVs will be notably cheaper than their gas-powered cousins.
 

Swanson's Law

Swanson's Law is named after Richard Swanson, the founder of SunPower Corporation, a solar panel manufacturer. Swanson regularly gave talks and wrote papers and articles that showed the cost decline trend of solar photovoltaics (PV). Specifically, his data showed the price of PV modules dropped ~20% for every doubling of production.

This is an industry-specific application of Wright's Law unit cost curve or economies of scale.

How will this impact EVs? 

As solar prices decrease, it will be more affordable to cover your rooftop in solar and to have solar canopies over parking lots. These solar canopies both provide shade and generate electricity. It's incredibly rewarding to know that your car can be powered by the sunlight hitting your roof. Each 1kW of solar on your roof is enough to power an EV for about 4000 miles.

Solar production scales well with electricity needs in many parts of the world. Solar generates electricity during the day when we tend to be more active and grid demand is higher. PV also generates more electricity in the summer when the air conditioning units are running. 

Combine the price reductions for batteries (see Wright's Law above) with the price reduction of solar panels and you soon have the ability to have a home battery and industrial-scale battery backup. This turns energy "digital." Today's energy grid has to match supply and demand in real-time. This makes for a fragile system. To compensate for this, utilities have to over-provision and/or have wasteful, polluting spinning reserves to avoid rolling blackouts or other outages.

Batteries, on the other hand, can respond in milliseconds and can provide hours of backup. If there's a short-term increase in demand, batteries can easily cover it. If it's a longer-term issue, the batteries give the grid operators the time they need to ramp up energy generation, bring more systems online, or recruit supply from neighboring systems. This makes for a far more robust energy grid.

For us, we use our home battery system to time-shift our solar production from mid-day to peak hours. This reduces the stress on the grid and reduces our electricity bill. Additionally, we charge our EVs overnight when there is surplus energy on the grid (this is when the wind mix is typically at its highest) and electricity prices are at their lowest.

Jevons' Paradox

The Jevons' paradox is named after the English economist, William Stanley Jevons. It was described in his 1865 book, The Coal Question

Jevons observed that England's consumption of coal soared after James Watt introduced a more efficient coal-fired steam engine. A more efficient system uses less fuel, yet consumption greatly increased; hence, a paradox. This has also been called the Rebound Effect or the Backfire Effect. 

This paradox is often misunderstood or even maliciously misconstrued to attack efficiency efforts so we'll spend a little more time on this one.

In retrospect, the cause of the soaring coal use in steam engines is apparent. In the 1800s, most labor was done with muscle power (either human or livestock). When the steam engine became more efficient, the cost of using coal became affordable and it started to displace workhorses, draft horses, mules, oxen, and the like. The society of the time was starved for horsepower to achieve the burdensome labors of the day. 

They were early in the S-curve of work energy (see below). Before Watt's engine, few people were using coal-powered machines. So coal, engine parts, and repairs were all expensive. The improved steam engine overcame the cost of coal, this cost was the barrier to entry for many applications of the technology. Clearing this barrier allowed steam engines to move up the slope, from the initial slow growth phase to the exponential phase. 


Technology Lifecycle

The decline phase is generally kicked off when a better alternative arrives, rather than the underlying need disappearing. The steam engine displaced animal labor. The steam engine was later displaced by a combination of internal combustion and electric motors, thereby completing the lifecycle.

Coal, on the other hand, was not as quickly dismissed as the steam engine. It found additional uses in electricity generation. Coal use hit its peak in 2007 and was generally displaced by natural gas (methane). Advancements in hydraulic fracturing of shale caused a "fracking boom." This left coal at a major cost disadvantage just as coal had done to ox power more than 100 years before. 

It's Not A Backfire Effect 

Now, with some perspective, you can see that this was not a Rebound Effect or Backfire Effect. It was a Breakthrough Effect! When an underlying demand is poorly served, a new technology that makes it easier to access will greatly increase demand.

The Jevons Paradox was not a Backfire Effect; it was a Breakthrough Effect.

Unpriced Externalities Causes A Tragedy of the Commons

Coal was cheaper than draft horses because of the more efficient steam engine but also because there was no direct cost to pollute. When you purchased coal (then and now), there was no additional cost for the air pollution that it would cause. That price would be paid collectively by everyone that had to breathe polluted air. 

How does Jevons Paradox apply to EVs? 

Our need to travel is not disappearing, it just might be served in a new and better way. 

Just as Watt's steam engine was more efficient than the ones that came before it, the electric vehicle motor is far more efficient than the internal combustion engine that it is replacing. Electricity is far less expensive to use as a fuel than gasoline or diesel. Electric motors require far less maintenance. EVs now have the ability to have similar ranges as gas-powered vehicles and the growing plug-in infrastructure makes it nearly as convenient to plug in as it is to fill up. Plugging in an EV in your garage to charge up overnight is even more convenient.

Given the cost, maintenance, and convenience advantages, once the initial cost reduces, EVs will have a "Jevons' Breakthrough."

Tying It All Together

These Laws are closely related and help us understand how things change with exponential growth. Wright's Law is about the reduction in labor cost as production scales. Swanson's Law is about the reduction in unit cost with scale. And Jevons Paradox is about the adoption of technologies, thereby enabling the prior. All the while, with Moore's Law continuing to increase compute horsepower to underpin all this growth.

How will these impact our renewable future? Wright's Law will result in battery prices dropping. This will result in EV prices continuing to drop. Since EVs are cheaper to operate, Jevons' Paradox means that new uses will emerge (ridesharing, delivery, autonomy, underground transport...). Moore's Law will enable more computing power, allowing EVs to become autonomous and connected with more in-car entertainment options.

Swanson's Law will continue to lower the price of solar panels. This along with the reduced price of batteries will allow for more renewable energy on the grid. This will further reduce the cost of energy and energy storage thereby making EVs cheaper to operate and again cheaper to build. This will further reduce our use of fossil fuels, moving them down the decline curve while providing us with cleaner air and water. 

These Laws create a self-reinforcing positive feedback loop that will accelerate EVs, energy storage, and renewable energy into multi-trillion-dollar markets.

Murphy's Law

Of course, you shouldn't forget Murphy's Law, which could bring all of this crashing down ☘️

and one more bonus axiom.

Hofstadter's Law

If you thought these changes were going to happen overnight, remember this recursive law:

It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law.
— Douglas Hofstadter, Gödel, Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid

Sidebar: "Laws*"

Many of the things we looked at are called Laws. However, they are not Laws of Physics (like Boyle's law), nor do they fall into the legal category of laws (like Megan's Law). There's a long list of better ways to describe these (e.g., observations, dictums, principles, effects, axiom, rules of thumb, razors, corollaries, heuristics, hypotheses, parables, emergent properties...). However, the English language (as far as I know) does not have an overarching word for this category. Calling something a "Law" is far more catchy than calling it a "Heuristic." Moore's Observation just doesn't have the same ring to it, so here we are. 

If you know of a better term for these types of "Laws," please let me know in the comments below. There may be some obscure German word that's perfect for this; until I learn it, I'll use the term axiom or law.


Meta Sidebar About Sidebars    

If you've read this blog for any length of time, you'll know that I cannot say something like Moore's Law, without a pedantic sidebar about it's not really a "Law." I recently did this in another post about the term "AC Batteries." The AC Battery sidebar occurred relatively early in its post and it was relatively long. This broke the flow of the post before it even had much of a chance to get started. So now, I'm trying something new and putting all the sidebar(s) at the end of the posts. This way I can still note and clarify the turbid occurrences without breaking up the flow of the primary story.

Disclosure: I am long Tesla

Tuesday, March 30, 2021

Musk's Empire - The Power of Engineering



Science is the body of knowledge learned from exploring the physical and natural world. 
Engineering is the application of knowledge in order to solve problems and fulfill needs.

No offense to Andy Weir but Mark Watney was applying his knowledge, so he didn't "Science the 💩 out of this," rather he "Engineered the excrement out of it." 😃

If you ask a scientist about a bridge design, they might say, "It works under one model, but fails under another model." So if you want to know if it would work in the real world, ask an engineer.

Engineering is about getting things to work in the real world. This is very different than getting something to work in a controlled lab. The real world has to contend with massive temperature variations, dirt, grime, margins of error, tolerances, weather, metal fatigue, wear and tear, etc.

Science's job is to be out ahead of the rest of us, making discoveries. The applications of those discoveries may not be readily apparent. When Michael Faraday first discovered the electro-motive force, his initial demonstrations were not much more than a metal needle spinning in a conductive fluid. At one of his demonstrations, he was asked what use could this invention ever have. His response was, "What use is a newborn baby?" Meaning this discovery had much-unrealized potential. Faraday didn't stop at just discovering the science; he went on to do the engineering work too and made the first electric motor and soon after the first electric generator. His discovery and the inventions that followed are at the heart of our modern world. Nearly all electricity (except solar) is created by turning a generator. This discovery was crucial; however, it was the engineering work that converted the scientific foundation from a newborn babe into useful machines.

Applying This To Elon Musk

One criticism of Musk is that the things that he's delivering were not his ideas. Musk is known for SpaceX, Tesla, The Boring Co., Starlink...  The criticism goes something like: there were electric cars long before Musk was born, they were not his idea. The "vac-train" was invented in 1799, so Musk's Hyperloop idea was not a new one. Starlink was not a new idea, SpaceX had even launched satellites for OneWeb. They took the idea from their customer. Landing rockets has been common in sci-fi since Buck Rogers in the 1930s and Bell Aerosystems demonstrated vertical landing rockets in 1961. Musk and Co have never had a unique idea. </crit>

Let's disassemble this criticism. I have an idea for a matter transporter. No wait, that was Gene Roddenberry. I have an idea for a time machine. No wait, that was H.G. Wells. Now if I actually built one of these (or both, because why not), would you say, "You just copied someone else's idea!"? Of course not. Imagining these is not the hard part; creating them is where the difficulty lies.

The idea is important, but without the engineering work to bring it forth into the world as a real thing that we can interact with, it's just an idea. Great for fictional works or demonstrations of a needle spinning in a dish of water, but these alone will not bring about the next industrial revolution or change how you and I live our lives.

Musk's accomplishments (actually all the engineers and technicians that work for him) are not coming up with new ideas. The accomplishments are solving all the problems that were encountered going from concept to product.

There are millions of ideas out there. What matters is selecting from them, something that is possible, meets a need, and has not been done yet. It's about looking at the good ideas that we already have and then making them work. It's about raising the newborn babe into a functional adult.

Let's deep dive into one specific product: Solar Glass Roof. The idea for roofing materials with integrated solar is not a new one. There are several patents (including one from NASA) dating back to the 1970s for "building-integrated photovoltaic."  Many many businesses have tried to make this into a viable product and failed. Some were solar roof tiles, some had flexible roll-on solar that went over a metal roofing, others even had solar collecting windows. In 2016, Green Tech Media wrote an open letter to Elon Musk and the Brothers Rive (then running SolarCity) asking them (nah, pleading with them) not to go forward with a solar roof product. The author didn't want SolarCity (this was before they became a part of Tesla) to die upon that precipice as had so many other solar companies. The author lists nearly two dozen companies and solar roof products that seemed like great ideas but never made it beyond the prototype phase and in some cases, took the company down with them. 

Musk didn't heed this warning; he couldn't be waved off. He uses first-principle thinking to determine what is and what is not possible. This thinking had led him to determine that a solar glass roof was possible. Musk also adheres to the motto, although it may be difficult, that doesn't mean it shouldn't be attempted. He has said that when Tesla started, he knew the most likely outcome was failure. 

Tesla moved ahead with solar roof developments. They ran into many of the same problems as the other companies. However, Tesla had money, time, and brilliant engineers. Previous attempts were missing one or more of these vital ingredients. Tesla did not make the bulk of their revenue from solar, so they could take their time and work out the bugs. They had problems with wiring, couplings, clips, installation time, and more. They iterated the product, fixing, refining, improving. They hired roofing crews and had them install solar roofs on test homes and then looked at the results (how long did it take, did they get it right, how much breakage...) and they iterated more. Finally, in the second half of 2020 (five years after the Green Tech Media open letter), Tesla started installing solar glass roofs in quantity. They now have several roofing companies certified to install these shinny black roofs all around the US and they are expanding into Canada in the first half of 2021. 

This is a perfect example of the need for great engineering. The science of solar roofing was solved. Integrate a solar cell under a transparent protective roofing tile, nail them down, hook them up, and easy-peazy you have a solar roof. However, to make a product that can be installed in a day, will last 20 years under the Arizona sun, and survive Canadian winters is a difficult engineering problem.

The Physics of The Impossible

In his book, Physics of the Impossible, Michio Kaku defined 3 levels of Impossible ideas: 

Class I impossibilities - technologies we have no idea how to achieve today, but they do not violate the known laws of physics, e.g., energy shields or artificial gravity. These are things that might be achievable in a few hundred years plus or minus (mostly plus). 

Class II impossibilities - technologies that "sit at the very edge of our understanding of the physical world." These (like Class I) do not violate the known physical laws, but we know a lot less in these areas. We need to learn much more to truly understand the feasibility and, if they are deemed possible, they may require the entire energy of a star or a black hole. That certainly makes them impossible today, but with a thousand (or millions) of years of advancement may become possible. 

Class III impossibilities - These are the things that (based on the science we already know) are impossible. For example, perpetual motion machines and precognition are class 3 impossibilities.  

Musk and The Physics of The Possible

Why did we go through the list of impossibility categories? Because the first step to creating an innovative product is knowing what's possible. 

When one of Musk's companies wants to make something, they don't ask if something has been done before or how it is currently being done by their competitors. The first question is, "Is it possible? If physical atoms are arranged properly, can they function as needed?" This "atoms up" thinking, means they will try things that been attempted before either with the ignorance of past failures or hubris based on the list of "previously impossible" things that Musk Co. have accomplished. This is what I call a Class ½ Impossibility. There are no laws of physics that limit its possibility, you don't have to wait 100 years for it, but it won't be easy; perhaps some prototypes or lab samples have been created, but it has not been productized due to some obstacles. 

It's relatively easy to take an existing product and make a derivative or a minor improvement. However, this will not result in a breakthrough product. If you want to productize something that's never existed beyond the prototype phase, that will be far more difficult. You might even say it will be hell, but as we said in our Mistaking A Clear View For a Short Distance article, Musk knows it will be hell; he's familiar with hell, he's walked the trails through Hell so many times, he could be a tour guide.

Musk has been on the trail through Hell so many times that he could be a tour guide.

Tesla's Innovation Moat 

This tendency to take on Class ½ Impossibilities gives Tesla (and other Musk-o-verse companies) a competitive advantage. Most businesses are worried about next quarter's results and would not be willing to fund product development for years without assurances that it will be profitable. 

Full Self Driving is another example. This falls into the category of things that are possible, but not yet productized. Tesla has been working on this since at least 2015. They have hired a hardware and software development team with some of the best talent in the world. According to our estimate, Tesla will be working on this until 2027 before they have a true Level 5 robotaxi fleet. That's 12+ years of engineering work before arriving at the destination. Although this estimate is a decade behind Musk's original estimate, it is still likely 5 years ahead of competitors. That's more like a Silicon Valley tech company than a car company. That's Tesla's Innovation Moat.


Disclosure: I'm long TSLA

Monday, March 22, 2021

Spring 2021 Has Sprung! First Net Positive Day w/ Tesla Solar and Powerwall


On Friday March 12th, we generated more electricity than we used. Here in NW Oregon, we usually have short cloudy/rainy days in the winter. Well, spring is here and the days alternate between sunny blue skies and rainy.

When July/August hit, we'll have more sun, but the AC will be on, boosting our energy use, raising the bar for energy-positive days, so these sunny spring days are the easiest. 

Looking at the timeline for our net positive day, there are a few interesting moments. 
  • 3AM the EVs charge up. You can see the big spike in energy use. On a power level, this event is far bigger than anything else that happens throughout the day. 
  • 6AM peak rate hour start. The Powerwalls start discharging to remove our home from the grid load. 
  • 7AM the sun comes out. Our PV system started generating power. Since we were running in Cost Savings mode, the PV energy is sent to the grid during peak hours. 
  • 10AM peak ends. I'm not sure why, but the battery continued to discharge. This is not what usually happens. 
  • Noon Powerwalls start charging with solar. 
  • 1PM Powerwalls stop charging. They were not full but stopped charging for some reason. 
  • 2:30 PM Powerwalls start charging again. 
  • 5PM evening peak starts. Once again the Powerwalls start discharging to remove our home from the grid load. 
  • 8PM peak ends. The evening peak ended and yet the Powerwalls continued to discharge for another 2 hours. 
  • 10PM off-peak. As we hit off-peak, the Powerwalls stopped discharging. 
Why did the Powerwalls continue to discharge? We have the system in Advanced mode which is an intelligent mode that uses weather forecasts to "make room" to store anticipated solar production. That means that occasionally you might see mid-peak discharging. 

Of course, if you don't want all of this charging and discharging, you can just put the system in Backup-Only mode, but that's no fun.

Happy Spring Time, enjoy it while you can.  

Monday, March 15, 2021

2020 Solar Production Recap

We had solar panels installed on our home in late 2007. That makes 2020 our 13th full year with solar panels on our roof. That's over 13 years quietly, dependably, making electricity to run our home. We started with a 4 kW system and then added another 8 kW in 2015.

In 2020, together these two systems generated 12,345 kWh. Yes, it was really 1-2-3-4-5. This brings our lifetime total to 94,137 kWh. At 14¢ that would be ~$13,000 worth of electricity. If these 94 MWhs were used to charge a Tesla Model 3 Standard Range Plus, it would be able to drive more than 600,000 km or nearly 16 times around Earth. 

Here's a chart of our lifetime production: 


If you look closely at the summer of 2020, you can see that the production flattens out faster than in previous years. That was due to the various fires that darkened our skies. It's ironic that the fires are made worse by global warming and they are reducing our solar production. A vicious feedback cycle.

2020 ended with our Powerwall installation on New Year's Eve. 

Referral code

If you are interested in a Tesla solar glass roof or their solar subscription program, you can use my referral link and after activation, you'll get $100 of free solar energy. 

Monday, March 1, 2021

When Will Tesla Cars Drive Themselves?


Tesla vehicles have amazing technology. They have big screens, real-time traffic, over-the-air updates, streaming music, you can play video games, and even watch Netflix movies (while parked). 

More to the point of this blog entry, they also have Autopilot. Autopilot is an advanced driver assistance system (ADAS) that includes:
  • Traffic-Aware Cruise Control: Matches the speed of your car to that of the surrounding traffic
  • Autosteer: Assists in steering within a clearly marked lane, and uses traffic-aware cruise control
As an ADAS, it is clear that the driver is required to be alert. This system is intended to ease cognitive load and allow the driver to have better situational awareness. It is *not* intended to allow drivers to use their phones or take naps. 

The next level up from Autopilot is Full Self-Driving (FSD) Capability. This includes: 
  • Navigate on Autopilot (Beta): Actively guides your car from a highway’s on-ramp to off-ramp, including suggesting lane changes, navigating interchanges, automatically engaging the turn signal, and taking the exit
  • Auto Lane Change: Assists in moving to an adjacent lane on the highway when Autosteer is engaged
  • Autopark: Helps automatically parallel or perpendicular park your car, with a single touch
  • Summon: Moves your car in and out of a tight space using the mobile app or key
  • Smart Summon: Your car will navigate more complex environments and parking spaces, maneuvering around objects as necessary to come find you in a parking lot.
  • Traffic and Stop Sign Control (Beta): Identifies stop signs and traffic lights and automatically slows your car to a stop on approach, with your active supervision
  • Autosteer on city streets (coming soon as I write this)
There are a few important things to point out about "FSD Capability." The first thing to note that all of these features still require driver supervision and many of them are still in beta or even in limited release beta. That is to say, this is not yet a fully autonomous vehicle, despite the FSD monicker. The second thing to point out is the word "capability." A piece of paper is capable of being folded into a paper airplane, but that does not make a flat sheet of paper an airplane. So when you buy the FSD Capability, you are buying a sheet of paper with some folds in it, and the promise that there will be updates to finish folding it the rest of the way.

If that's what you want to buy, good on you, go for it. I did and I've been very happy with the progress of the FSD Capability. I just wanted to paint a clear picture that when you buy the FSD Capability, you are (currently) still getting an ADAS, just one with more functionality than most. 

Musk's "Coming Soon" Comments 

When will Tesla's FSD evolve from 'just' ADAS to a true fully autonomous vehicle? Elon Musk has been asked this question in several public forums. Here are some of his replies:

[12.22.2015] “We’re going to end up with complete autonomy, and I think we will have complete autonomy in approximately two years.”

[10.19.2016] Discussing the new Autopilot hardware, Musk said, "It is fully capable of Level 5 autonomy, a big step forward." *Note the work 'capable' verses something like 'functional.'

[06.12.2018] Tesla’s cars will in August suddenly activate “full self-driving features,” the company's chief executive Elon Musk tweeted on Sunday. "Features" meaning some subset of "Full."

[10.21.2019] "Next year for sure, we will have over a million robotaxis on the road"

[07.09.2020] "I remain confident that we will have the basic functionality for level five autonomy complete this year." Where "basic functionallity" is again a subset of "full".

[01.28.2021] "Basically, I'm highly confident the car will drive itself with reliability in excess of a human this year. ...we need to probably do a little bit more work to prove that Tesla Autopilot is capable of full self-driving, which, I think, will become obvious later this year."

As you can see, in statement after statement, Musk had high confidence that FSD-Level 5 will happen soon (where "soon" is any time 2017 or later). I submit to you that all forward-looking statements about something that's never been done before should be taken with a grain of salt. Additionally, these statements are often made under a Safe Habor Clause that provides legal protection for optimistic speculation. Careful parsing allows you to find the caveats (e.g., 'I think', capable, features, basic...), that a quick enthusiastic read (or an intentionally malicious misread) will miss. If you want a vehicle to drive you from A to B tomorrow, I suggest that you take the train, a bus, use Lyft, or hire a chauffeur rather than buy FSD.

If you want a car that can drive you around right now, while you look at your phone, FSD is not it. Take a Lyft instead. 

If, however, you want to be involved in testing one of the most exciting robotic systems that humankind has ever created (and you don't mind continuing to be a responsible driver), then FSD might be worth your hard-earned money. Today, using the Smart Summon feature a Tesla vehicle can (usually) pull out of a parking space and drive to you in a parking lot. This is a nice feature to have if your parking spot has flooded or you have large/heavy items that you don't want to lug through the parking lot.

If you want to test one of the most exciting neural net robotics systems that humankind has ever created (while continuing to be an attentive driver), then FSD is worth the money.

So When Will Full Autonomy Arrive?

In other (less optimistic) statements, Musk has said that they'll have to "chase the nines" to get to full autonomy. I think these are the more realistic statements from Musk that acknowledge that there are many many edge-cases that they will need to resolve and that will be a long process. Musk is a perennial optimist and I don't think his estimates are meant to be deceptive. Rather, they are ambitious goal statements that he believes to be possible. Musk excites, motivates, and manages using moonshots and urgency. It is a proven formula at Tesla (and SpaceX). They have accomplished things that no other company has ever achieved (just not on the publicized timeline). It is also important to note that even though Musk's initial target was 2017 and full autonomy has still not arrived, Tesla has continued to make forward strides every year. Sometimes, when you are doing something for the first time, there are challenges that you didn't even know existed until you get there and encounter them (unknown unknowns). 

Stop Sidestepping the Question! When Will It Happen? Give Me A Date!

It is impossible to predict. Neural nets have a strange tendency to be incompetent for many many iterations and then, suddenly, something clicks and they do amazing things far surpassing your expectations. This means the next build could be the one, but I've gone on record saying that August of 2027 is when the scales tip and it is more likely than not that FSD (full autonomy, Level 5, remove the steering wheel, take a nap and wake-up at your destination) will emerge. That does not mean that it won't exist in limited forms (fair weather, geofenced...) before then, nor does it mean that it impossible before that date. It's just a probability distribution. If you want to know when it is 99% likely, move your bet to 2040.

Disclosure: I'm Long Tesla