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Monday, June 22, 2020

Elon's Estimates - Mistaking A Clear View For A Short Distance


Elon Musk is known for many things: Zip2, PayPal, SpaceX, Tesla, Boring Co...
But he is also known for his over-enthusiastic estimates of when a technology can be delivered. Other than Model Y, every one of Tesla's vehicles has been late to market. In December of 2015, Musk said that full self-driving would be available in 2 years; it has made progress, but it is still not here. And more recently on the Joe Rogan podcast, Musk predicted that within 5 to 10 years people will be able to directly communicate thoughts via brain implants rather than using the slow analog process of speech or writing.

For followers of Musk (fans and detractors alike), this is known as MST or Musk Standard Time. Converting from MST to a Gregorian calendar is not an easy task. It involves leap years and slide rules and it is not possible in all instances.

I don't point this out for ridicule; rather it is to ask the question: Why does Musk continue to make bold predictions on unrealistic timelines?

In short, I think that he is falling into the trap that Paul Saffo warned against:

       Never mistake a clear view for a short distance. ~Paul Saffo

Musk has a clear view of his plan. He's well aware that there will be challenges, but he has built teams and achieved many things that were deemed previously impossible. Create a door-to-door driving directions website - Check; Create an internet payment system - Check; Make sexy fast electric cars that blow away gas cars costing 10 times as much - Check; Create giant energy storage systems that change the way energy is bought and sold - Check; Land rockets on autonomous drones ships at sea - Check; Launch the largest network of low Earth orbit satellites that has ever existed to bring internet access to every square millimeter of the planet - Now underway and looking for Beta customers.

Class ½ Impossibilities

So it is not naiveté that brings Musk to these optimistic timelines. Rather, it's a series of successes. You look at the problem and ask yourself if engineering and innovation can achieve it, or would it require magic. If the answer is the former, then it can be accomplished. Cars will be self-driving, the only question is when. Humans will land on Mars, the question is will it be in this generation or another. When done, these will be incredible feats, but it will not be magic that brought them into existence. These accomplishments will be the product of hard-fought breakthroughs. If you have a vision, a roadmap, the ability to raise capital, the ability to attract great talent, and the ability to adapt based on feedback and learnings, the 'impossible' can be achieved. And maybe, just maybe, the people that accomplish it will be called sorcerers.

The Dunning-Kruger Effect is when someone has little skill or expertise in an area and assumes it will be easy for them. Their lack of knowledge gives them undeserved overconfidence. What Musk 'suffers' from is almost the opposite of this effect. He knows it will be Hell; it's just that he's been on the trail through Hell so many times that he could be a tour guide. And the one sure way to fail is to assume it's not achievable.

Musk has been on the trail through Hell so many times that he could be a tour guide.

What is the opposite of the Dunning-Kruger Effect? Would it be The Kruger-Dunning Effect or perhaps the Regurk-Gninnud Effect? 😃 Knowing something will be hard and doing it anyway is how great things are achieved.

The future will not be bound to a timeline. It is fickle and does not give up its secrets easily, but this should never stop the quest for a better tomorrow.

This post started off with a quote from Paul Saffo and I'll end it here with a quote from one of his contemporaries:

        "The best way to predict the future is to invent it." ~Alan Kay 

For more on Musk's Moonshot management style, check out this article.

1 comment:

  1. musk is simply much smaller version of Edison.

    https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2019/10/28/the-real-nature-of-thomas-edisons-genius

    ReplyDelete