Traveling Oregon in a Tesla - Photo Journal (Part 3 Oregon Caves)

In part 2 of our electric Oregon tour, we visited Crater Lake and headed back to the motel on the Rogue River. In this phase of our journey, we'll visit the Oregon Caves and travel to Sutherlin, Oregon.

Traveling to the Oregon Caves

At our Rogue River motel, as we did the night before, we plugged into the 120V outlet and charged the car overnight. The next morning we were up early and headed into Grants Pass. As we've done many times before, we plugged in at the Grants Pass Supercharger in the parking lot of the Black Bear Diner. However, this time we went into the restaurant for breakfast.

We've charged here several times, but had never eaten there. The food was good and the fresh squeezed orange juice was some of the best that I've ever had. We have a Black Bear near our home, yet we've never gone there. It was just not a place that we considered. Now that we know they have good breakfast options, we'll be going there when we're home.

Tesla Model X at Black Bear Diner

After breakfast, we set out to for the Oregon Caves. It was a relatively short drive to Cave Junction from Grants Pass. We arrived at the caves with plenty of charge. We scheduled a cave tour and checked into the chateau.

Here are a few photos from our cave tour.

After the cave tour, we took the longer hiking trail back to the visitors' center.

Our timing was great to see the sunset on the Siskiyou Mountains.

After the sunset, bats came out. It was fun to see them flying around the trees with incredible speed.

We stayed the night at the chateau at the caves. Unfortunately, there was nowhere to charge up there. They have a low-tech theme and they even proudly tout that they don't have Wi-Fi with a sign that says, "The best way to connect, is to unplug." While I agree that it is nice to unplug your mind when you are on vacation, I'd still like to plug in my car. But the trip from Grants Pass was not that far, so we had plenty of juice left.

There's a bumper sticker motto in there somewhere "Plug in your car and unplug your mind" ... Maybe not.

The next morning we set off for Sutherlin. Where we were staying there, they have destination charging. This is nice, we'll be able to start the next morning with a full charge.

Our next adventure: Part 4: the Oregon Wildlife Safari.

Tesla Truck Strategy

Tesla Pickup Truck concept via Truck Trend

Tesla has changed the game in the luxury car market. Audi, BMW, & Mercedes are losing market share to Tesla. With more than 400,000 people reserving a Model 3, Tesla hopes to do the same to Toyota, Nissan, Ford, and others in the mid-sized sedan market. With large screens, over-the-air updates, self-driving, and other features, Tesla has crafted an image as an innovative company advancing automotive technology. This has given them a devoted following among the early adopter crowd.

One of the products that Tesla has announced as part of their plan is to launch an electric pickup truck. The top three selling passenger vehicles in the US are all pickup trucks, so this is an important market segment if Tesla wants to meet their goal to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport. 

It is not clear if the truck buying customers will be as enamored with the Tesla brand and innovations as the luxury and midsize sedan buyers. Tesla will have to wow them to woo them.

           

Truck buyers - to Woo them, Tesla must Wow them.

Semi First

Many truck-buyers have ignored or dismissed electric cars. For those that are aware of Tesla, many view the company's longevity and technology claims skeptically. There are many arguments that are used to dismiss electric vehicles such as range, recharge time, performance, styling... Tesla has been able to address each of these in their cars. For trucks, they will have to make all the persuasive arguments to a new class of buyers.

The easiest way to allay these concerns is to show a vehicle that is awesome and defies all these concerns. The Tesla Semi is expected to be shown in October of this year. If it meets expectations of range and power that Elon Musk has presented such as being able to pull a standard semi uphill in a tug-of-war, this will have a wow-factor and should eliminate any concern that Tesla cannot make a powerful truck. Pickup truck buyers are far more likely to be interested in and talk about the semi-truck features and performance than the Model S/3/X.

Fleets

Pickup trucks are often part of a work fleet. So perhaps more so with trucks than with Tesla's previous car offerings, they will have to appeal to fleet managers. Fueling cost and maintenance are significant factors that good fleet managers consider when making purchases. The total-cost-of-ownership, rather than just the initial price tag is what matters.

If Tesla can find features to add to the trucks that help reduce job costs, their trucks will be given serious consideration.

Truck Features

Battery and Range
The truck is likely to have the biggest battery pack of any of Tesla's passenger vehicles. Trucks often spend long days driving between job sites, often while hauling or towing loads. Long-range and hauling take energy. Depending on the load, the energy needed could be twice as much as a load-free drive.  

Elon Musk tweets that the Tesla Pickup will have a large battery pack (above 100 kWh)

We can expect to see a 120+ kWh option in the truck's battery pack. I hope to see 160 kWh or more on a high-end pickup truck. This would allow long-range while pulling a loaded one-ton tractor-trailer or a bed full of bricks.

Truck Frunk Box (say that 5 times fast)

Tesla's cars have a front trunk or frunk. They have made luggage to fit the frunk. The truck is likely to have a frunk too. For the truck, this can be a custom toolbox, slotted for removable compartments. The frunk should also have electrical outlets to allow charging for cordless power tool batteries. Perhaps a custom recharging dock partnership with Makita that Tesla sells in their accessories store. 

Electrical outlets
Speaking of power-tools, one of the things that are often toted to job sites are generators to run the corded power tools. If Tesla's truck has outlets near the tailgate, these can be used to power table-saws and other corded power tools. This will mean that you don't have to buy, haul, fuel, or maintain a separate generator. This would be another money saver for contractors and fleet managers. This is also another reason that the truck battery pack should be a little larger. A built-in auto-retracting cord reel would be a nice addition too.


Tesla is full of surprises. We'll have to wait and see what they offer and how the truck buying marketplace receives it. We live in exciting times.

Traveling Oregon in a Tesla - Photo Journal (Part 2 Crater Lake)

Previously, in part 1 of our summer family traveling adventure, we went to the Painted Hills in our Model X.

In part 2, we head to southern Oregon. In the morning, we were charged up and packed. We hit the road heading south. Our first charging stop was in Eugene. We stopped at the nearby Dutch Brothers and Subway before heading to the Supercharger. Our little family ate lunch and talked while we charged up. After lunch, we continued south.

Map of our Southern Oregon Trip

Our next stop was in Grants Pass. As we descended the Cascades and approached the city, the air began to thicken from the multiple forest fires burning in the region. We arrived in Grants Pass and plugged in.

Grants Pass SuperCharger at Sunset with Smoke in the Sky from Nearby Forest Fires

This Supercharger in the parking lot of the Black Bear Resturant would turn out to be our hub for our southern Oregon adventures. We charged up and headed to our motel for the evening. At the motel, we parked in front of our room and we plugged into a 120V outlet (with permission) overnight. This overnight charging only added ~20 miles, but it was all that was available and plugging in lets the owners of the motel know that EV charging is an amenity that we EV drivers are looking for. Perhaps they'll install a NEMA 14-50 which EVs and RVs could utilize.

The next morning we had a nice breakfast at a 1950's themed restaurant overlooking the Rouge River. Then we set off for Crater Lake.

Trees through the forest fire smoke on the drive to Crater Lake

Heading up the mountain the smoke began to thicken the air. We wondered if we'd be turned back or if it would be smart to turn back. We had checked the night before so we knew Crater Lake National Park was still open, so we pressed on. Biohazard mode comes in handy in times like this.

Vidae Falls Near Crater Lake

Surprisingly, there were pockets where the air was clear. We saw a beautiful waterfall and stopped to enjoy the view. After snapping a few photos at the falls, we continued to the rim.

We arrived at Crater Lake.

Wizard Island through forest fire smoke

We scheduled a boat ride on the lake for later in the day and enjoyed the view from the visitors' area. As we walked around, butterflies filled the air. I'm not sure if the fires drove them to this area, or if this is an annual occurrence. But it was magical as they flew up the caldera and surrounded us as we looked at Wizard Island and the beauty of the lake.

Now it was time to head over for the boat ride. The boat dock was on the other side of the lake. Because of the fires, the shorter route was closed. The drive up the mountain had used more than half the charge we had and I wanted to make sure we could get back to the motel. I had not planned on taking the long way around the crater when I mapped this out. At least the drive back was mostly down hill, we should have plenty of range. So we took the long way around and pulled into the parking area.

The parking lot was under construction, which of course made me wonder if EV charging is part of the plan for this new parking area. With the hike down, the boat tour, and the hike back we'd be parked here for about 5 hours. A Level 2 charging session could add over 100 miles of range during this time.

We parked and hiked down to the boat dock.

An outbuilding on Crater Lake

After a short wait, we were on the water for a ranger guided tour around the lake.

On Crater Lake, smoke to the left, clear skies to the right

Phantom Ship Island on Crater Lake

We finished our boat ride and headed to a Mazama Village.

Our Tesla Model X on the drive back from Crater Lake

 Driving down the mountain, we saw one of the sources of the smoke.

Spruce Lake fire, seen from Crater Lake, ~4700 acres burning

On the way down the mountain, we stopped for dinner in Mazama Village. They had a Tesla destination charger housed in a tiny A-frame house at the restaurant.

Charging at the Mazama Village destination charging station at Sunset

After dinner, we had a few extra Watt-hours and we headed down the mountain on our way back to our motel next to the Rogue.

On the drive down the mountain, we had more regen than I've ever seen. We were averaging negative 116 Watt-hours per mile. The batteries were getting charged up as we drove at ~50 MPH. EV ownership would be super easy if you could always drive downhill :)

Energy display showing 15 minutes of downhill driving

We made it back to the motel with plenty of remaining capacity.

The next day we were setting off for the Oregon Caves. I'll save that for part 3.

Tesla Model 3: We Don't Need No Stinking Badges

The real advantage of changing badging on Model 3 is not what you may think.

Tesla Model S P90D Ludicrous badge

Model 3 is now shipping! At the reveal event, one of the things we learned is that Tesla will not be badging Model 3 in the same way that they currently badge Model S and Model X.

With Model S/X the battery pack capacity is clearly labeled on the back of the vehicle. For example, a P90D badge indicates that it is a performance vehicle (P), it has a 90kWh pack (90), and the D indicates that it has dual-motor all-wheel drive. If the badge is underlined, as in the image above, this additionally indicates that the vehicle has the ludicrous performance upgrade.

Through their various incarnations over the years, Model S has had pack sizes of 40, 60, 70, 75, 85, 90, and 100 kWh. In some cases, these were software limited versions of larger capacity packs. In the history of Model S, one of the things that you could count on was that the battery capacity in Tesla's vehicles would periodically increase as battery tech advanced.

There are two battery pack options for Model 3: standard and long range. Edmunds reports here, that the long range pack is actually 80.5 kWh. When Elon Musk was asked about this in an investor call, he said it was "closer to 75." In that same call, Musk mentioned that standard range pack was "just over 50."

Badges? We Don't Need No Stinkin' Badges

I assumed that the Model 3 we were shown on July 28th would be the starting point for Model 3 and that it would have a similar march forward of battery capacity that we've seen with Model S. With this march forward, you'd need to be able to distinguish the various models with badging. To my surprise, Model 3 will not be badged with the pack capacity. Instead, Tesla will be referring to Model 3 variants by their relative range, rather than by their battery capacity.

This makes sense from a messaging perspective. Engineers talk about kilowatt-hours, Joe and Jane car buyer talk about range. Moving to a mass market, it's important to simplify things; boil them down to what's important to the car-buying public.

           

The only point of capacity is to provide range. Range is king.

The simplified messaging is important, but there's another advantage (perhaps even the real reason) that the badging has been changed for Model 3.

No Badge Equals More Margin

When the range is advertised instead of the capacity, improvements to the vehicle can be used to improve the profit margin on each vehicle, rather than increase the range. For example, say they make a small improvement to the inverter, motor, weight reduction, and/or aerodynamics for a 1% efficiency improvement. With this 1% improvement the car could have %1 more range. However, instead of the new models having 2 or 3 more miles of range, Tesla can reduce the pack capacity by a similar 1%. This will result in vehicles that have the same range advertised previously while the pack has a slightly smaller capacity.

In the above example, the new vehicle will have a slightly higher MPGe rating and an equivalent range. If the pack size is what was advertised, then reducing the pack size would seem like a step-down, even if the range was identical. By keeping the capacity unadvertised, its importance is deemphasized.

           

"Range badging" allows Tesla to turn efficiency into profit.

For a mass-market car, the margins are vital to the company's profitability. This system allows Tesla to turn efficiency improvements into margin improvements. Tesla has stated that they will have a 25% margin on Model 3 sometime in 1H 2018 after exiting "production hell" and reducing overtime pay. Musk went on to explain that they have an eventual 30% margin target for Model 3.

Hitting this target would give Tesla the best gross margin in the auto-industry. Most mainstream automakers such as GM and Ford command blended margins of under 15%. Porsche is the industry leader with 26.9% gross margin.

If range badging is the strategy that Tesla is taking, the days of hearing about a larger battery pack every other year or so are over. Model 3 will be sticking to the 220 and 310-mile range into the foreseeable future.

Maybe in 2025, Tesla will add a super long-range option.

Tesla Model 3 with no rear badging, photo via quiznosofficial on imgur

Any Badging?

Today, there is only one variant of Model 3 for sale. Soon the standard range option will be out and soon after that the dual-motor option and perhaps a performance version. When these other variants arrive, how will they be distinguished? Will the car have a PLRD badge? Or will this info only appear in the touchscreen rather than the rear of the car. When the standard range cars start shipping later this year, we'll find out.

Tesla Model 3 Dual Motor - Is the wait too long?

Like 400,000+ other people, we have a Tesla Model 3 reservation. And now we're excited to have an official delivery date estimate from Tesla. As you can see above there are three options for a delivery date window. One, if we select the initial configuration (long range, premium package), we could have our car this year. Two, if we want to save some money, we can receive the base model about 2 months later. And finally, if we want the dual motor all-wheel drive (AWD) vehicle, we can expect it to arrive in Q3 of next year.

For clarification, we are day-one reservation holders, on the west coast, and current Tesla owners. This gives us a pretty good place in the queue.

We are interested in the AWD, so my question is: if we wait for the dual motor option, will we receive the full federal tax incentive?

The way the incentive works, the full incentive will remain in effect for 3 to 6 months after Tesla sells their 200,000th car in the US. If Tesla sells their 200,000th US vehicle in Q1 of 2018, then the incentive will be halved on July 1st, 2018. This means that the AWD vehicle will effectively cost us $3750 more (half the US federal incentive). If, however, the 200,000th vehicle is sold on or after April Fools' Day 2018, then we'll qualify for the full incentive.

So, waiting for AWD is a $3750 gamble. For us, it is more important to have the vehicle that meets our driving needs than to qualify for an incentive. So we're planning to wait for the dual motor vehicle and let the incentive chips fall where they may.

That said, I'll continue to watch Tesla's vehicle sales and attempt to project the 200,000th US sale. It is possible that as the 200,000th sale is approaching, Tesla will stockpile vehicles for delivery. If they do, they'll impact their revenue for that quarter, but they'll quickly make it up in the following quarter and they'll have many more happy customers.

Traveling Oregon in a Tesla - Photo Journal (Part 1 - Painted Hills)

This is the first summer that I've owned a Tesla. Our Model X 90D arrived in October and we've put about 12,000 miles on it since then. To put this into perspective, most years I only drive about 8,000 miles. This vehicle is a lot of fun and we've been using it to explore our home state.

Our first family vacation trip was to eastern Oregon to see the Painted Hills. We found lodging in an old hotel in Prairie City that has Tesla destination charging (and charging for other EVs too). It was not too far from our first destination, the Painted Hills, and it had nearby bike paths and hiking.

From Beaverton to Prairie City 

The trip planner said that we could make it to Prairie City with just a single charging stop in The Dalles. I was less certain. We had our CHAdeMO adapter and connectors to plug into RV campgrounds if things didn't go as planned. I decided to play it safe and head to Pendleton instead. This allowed us to arrive with more charge remaining. If there were any issues with the destination charging, we'd still have enough charge for our next day's plans. It added some time to the drive, but better safe than sorry.

The trip was an easy drive. We stopped in The Dalles for a late lunch while we charged. We headed to Pendleton and had a bathroom break and a drink while we charged. That evening, two thousand dead bugs and 360 miles later, we arrived in Prairie City. We checked in, plugged into the destination charger, and made our way to our room.

The next day we were charged up and after breakfast, we headed to the Painted Hills.

Tesla Model X w/ Bike Rack at The Painted Hills in Oregon

The hills were great, a part of nature that's a rare sight. I'll spare you the description of the cause, if you're interested, feel free to google it.

From here we went to the Little Pine Cafe in the town of Mitch. As we parked and my daughter opened the falcon wing door to get out, one of the locals asked if our car was a Dodge. I told him it was a Tesla, to which he replied, "That's the future right there."

Cowboy Boots in Mitchell Oregon

We stopped at the nearby fossil museum and learned a few things about the massive weather pattern changes to the region over the eons. The next day we explored Prairie City and John Day on foot and bike. The visitors center in John Day has level 2 charging with places to explore and eat nearby.

On day 3 we drove into the Strawberry Mountain Wilderness area.

It was a dusty drive.

From the parking area, it's a hike to the lake.

The next day we packed up to head home, we were fully charged thanks to the destination charging at the hotel. This time, I was confident that the navigation system was correct and that we'd make it to The Dalles on a single charge. The bikes on the rack on the back mean that it is not accurate and I would just need to have a little buffer, but the nav system said that we'd have more than 30 miles left when we arrived. You can always stretch the range a little by slowing down a little if needed. So we headed north.

Going home we passed through the town of Fossil, Oregon. The town's name has nothing to do with fossil fuels, but I quipped that they'll need to change their name to Renewable, Oregon if they want to survive. Speaking of renewable energy, on the drive back we passed through the Biglow Canyon Wind Farm, as you can see below.

We made it to The Dalles with about 20 miles of range left. From there, after lunch and some charging, it was an easy drive home.

In part two, we'll head to Crater Lake.

Towing w/ A Tesla

Yesterday I moved my camper to a new storage facility. The trip was only about 45 miles and mostly on Interstate 5. This gave me a chance to see the range impact of towing on the Tesla Model X.

2016 Tesla Model X towing a Coleman Tacoma pop-up camper 

Before connecting the camper, I had to go buy a trailer ball mount and ball. The Tesla tow package only comes with a hitch receiver, not the complete tow kit. This is standard in the industry since they don't know what you may be towing and what type of tow kit you'd need. Perhaps you are just getting this for a bike rack and the receiver is all that you need.

Here is the installed tow ball.

Tow Kit Installed in a Tesla Tow Receiver

Now the part of the story that you've been waiting for: How much did this impact the range? Here is the energy data from the Tesla when we finished the trip.

Trip energy info from the binnacle display at the end of our towing trip 

Let's unpack this a little. I usually see around 335 Wh/mi, so 458 is a 27% increase in "fuel" consumption compared to my typical driving. Using just quick math, at 458 Wh/mile with a 90 kWh pack (85.8 usable in the 90D) results in 187 miles of range. Compared to the 257 miles of range rated by the EPA, this is a 27% reduction in range. A 27% reduction in rated range is not bad, I was expecting a ~40% reduction.

To be clear, this was not an EPA range test, it was one short drive on a mostly flat part of I-5. I may not even get the same results if I were to reverse the trip, but it is one example that can give you a good idea of the scope of the range impact.

187 miles is plenty of range for the places where I typically camp and if it is farther, there are Superchargers to extend the range (although this may be complicated with the camper attached). Also, assuming there is service where we're camping, I'll be able to use an RV outlet (NEMA 14-50) as a "destination charger" to recharge the car overnight.

Before signing off, here are three misc. things I learned on while towing for the first time in the X. One, the car automatically switches into tow mode when it detects something plugged into the 7-pin outlet used to control the trailer lights and braking. Two, when the X is in tow mode, Autopilot is not available to be enabled. You have to actually drive yourself when you are towing (#FWP). Third, our X has smart air suspension and it adjusts the suspension height as you drive and it also undoes this adjustment after you have been stopped for a few minutes. We were unhooking the trailer when the car decided to lift up a couple inches. This was annoying and a little dangerous as I was unhooking the camper at the time.

Stay safe, have fun, charge on.

UPDATE: I was informed by a reader that the tow kit shown above has a 2" drop and that is not recommended by Tesla. According to the reader, the ball can be straight or have up to a 3/4" rise. Luckily, the mount kit shown above is reversible and when reversed, it goes from a 2" drop to a 3/4" rise. I have now moved the ball and flipped it over. Next time I pull the camper, the trailer tongue will be 2 and 3/4" higher.

Tesla Semi Speculation

Battery swap, solar roof, conveyor floor, glass cab, and more. Tesla has an opportunity to reinvent the semi truck.

Tesla is known for their fast, luxury, long-distance EVs. This month they are shipping their mass production Model 3 and branching into a new market. This fall they will be showing off their new venture into semi trucks.

Tesla has scheduled the big reveal event for their all-electric heavy-duty long-haul semi truck in September of this year. Until this event, we are not likely to know much about the vehicle. Let's look at the market requirements and see if we can use this and what we know about Tesla's first principles approach to make some guesses about the Tesla Semi. Then, for fun, we'll round out the list with some things that would be cool to see.

Tesla Semi - What We Know

Elon Musk has said few things already, “It is a heavy duty, long range, semi-truck. So it has the highest weight capability and with long range. So essentially it’s meant to alleviate the heavy duty trucking loads.”

Musk says it will be heavy duty, how heavy? He said it will be long range, how long? Below we'll try to put bounds on these superlatives.

Musk continues, “And this is something which people do not, today, think is possible. They think the truck doesn’t have enough power or it doesn’t have enough range. And then with those with the Tesla semi we want to show that no, an electric truck actually can out-torque any diesel semi and if you had a tug-of-war competition, the Tesla semi what will tug the diesel semi uphill.”

How Long Is Long Range?

How far will Tesla's semi truck need to go on a single charge?

Eventually, Tesla's semi will be fully autonomous, but for now, let's assume that they will be human-piloted and they will need to conform to the national laws for semi driving. Here are some of the relevant US laws:

Legal drive time is 11 hours of driving with 10 hours of break thereafter. Additionally, drivers are restricted to 70 hours in an 8 day period.  via TruckersReport.com

Driving for 11 hours at 60 MPH is 660 miles of range. At first glance, this seems like an impossible range. It's more than double the range of Tesla's longest-range vehicle on the roads today. Is it possible? For comparison, consider that BYD has a 60-foot bus with a 270-mile range. To achieve this, they use a 547 kWh battery pack. Assuming Tesla's semi would have a similar efficiency as the bus, the semi would need about 1300 kWh in its battery pack to achieve a 660-mile range. That is the equivalent to 13 packs in a Tesla Model S 100. That is a massive battery pack, but not impossible.

How Heavy is "Heavy Duty"? 

In the trucking industry, heavy duty generally means Class 8. A Class 8 truck has a total weight limit of 80,000 pounds. Typically the load maxes out at 40,000 pounds with the truck itself weighing at ~35,000 pounds.

By this definition, a Tesla semi would need to be capable of carrying the same 40,000 pounds of payload.

Based on the few scraps of information that we have, to be considered long-range and heavy duty, our best guess is that this vehicle will be capable of 600+ miles range and 40,000 pounds of payload.

Tesla has reinvigorated the auto industry. The trucking industry is now on their radar. What other cool things might Tesla do in the semi truck space.

Trailer 2.0

The trailer that semis pull has been generally ignored by the industry. It is just something that the truck connects to. It has been an idle passenger. Tesla could change this.

What if the trailer had motors of its own. We know that the Tesla semi will be using “a bunch” of Model 3 electric motors. If these are placed on the trailer as well as the truck, there are a lot of cool things the trailer could do.

18-Wheel All-Wheel-Drive

If Tesla is going to use the Model 3 motors, it will need several of them. Putting them on the trailer as well as in the semi would allow for more power and control. This makes the trailer a vital part of the vehicle system. 

Once the trailer has its own motors, it makes sense for it to have its own batteries too. If they are going to put 13 cars worth of batteries someplace, the floor of the trailer seems like a place with ample room. 

Trailer Summons & Tank Turns

Now that the trailer has its own motors and batteries, there are many more cool things that could be done with the trailer. Imagine a yard where the trailers can be summoned. To do this, the trailer would need its own camera system, so let's put 8 or more cameras around the trailer. 

With the independent motors, the trailer would be able to move in ways that are impossible when they are being towed by a semi. For example, they could turn in place like a tank. This would allow for maneuverability that is important in crowded yards to move to loading docks and connection points. 

Trailer As Battery Swap

Tesla has tried battery swap before and some people have speculated that the idea will be resurrected for the semi truck. To me, it seems unlikely that they will retrace this ground, at least not in the same way.

Above we have two assumptions: one, the vehicle will have a ~1300kWh pack and, two, some (perhaps a majority) of these batteries will be in the trailer. If these assumptions (or something like them) turns out to be true, then here's an interesting possibility: What if a driver could pull into a loading dock, drop off a trailer with a depleted battery, hook up to a trailer with a fully charged battery and get back on the road. Depending on the split of the battery pack (say 350/950), this could restore a majority of the vehicle's charge in just a few minutes.

If the load needs to be transferred from the depleted trailer to the charged trailer, there are many options. With a flatbed, the cargo could be stored in a standard shipping container, then moved from trailer to trailer with a crane. Another option would be for the Tesla trailers position themselves next to each other and to have a conveyor floor on the trailer to slowly transfer the container from one trailer to the other.

Solar Roof (and sides)

On a car, you don't have a large roof and solar is just not that effective at adding significant range to the vehicle. You are far better off spending that money to put solar on your home, if you are interested in powering your commute with the sun. A semi truck is another story.

The conveyor floor mentioned above is an option for flatbeds, but there are other options for enclosed trailers (dry vans, and refrigerated trailers/reefers). An enclosed trailer is typically 45 to 53 feet long and the width is 92 to 98 inches wide. For a larger trailer, this is over 400 sq ft; that's a large roof, large enough to put about 8kW of solar panels on the roof.

Depending on the sun exposure, this could add 40 miles of range to the battery pack each day. For refrigerated trailers, these solar panels could be used to keep the contents cool without depleting the range of the truck.

They are less optimally angled to the sun, but solar panels on the side would add more energy. Would that make it a panel van? ☺

Semi 2.0 Misc.

I'm sure Tesla will have some surprises for us in September. Tesla is known for their glass roofs. The Model X has the largest windshield of any passenger vehicle currently in production. We are likely to see a plentiful use of glass on the semi too. The big screen that Tesla is known for will also likely be in the semi with a new utility. The cameras that surround the cab and trailer could also give the driver a view of the lane next to them or a view of blind-spots.

What other things could this trailer include:

• Air suspension - this would raise and level the trailer to align it to loading dock platforms. This is a common feature in many trailers. Loading docks are typically anywhere from 48 to 52 inches high. Tesla has air suspension in the Model S & X, the semi and trailer will likely have it too. 
• Ramp - Ramps and lift gates are common features in many trailers today. Tesla is likely to have these options too, but what innovation twist might they add? 

Market Size

About 250,000 semi truck cabs are sold in the US each year. And the US is just one of many markets of course. The average selling price for a cab is ~$155,000. Tesla's semi is likely to cost much more than this, but it will be far cheaper to fuel and there will be far less maintenance. Fleet owners are generally more concerned with the total cost of operation. Lower fuel and maintenance costs would give them headroom for a higher monthly vehicle payment. And after the vehicle is paid off, they will still enjoy the lower monthly fuel bill and increase their profit for moving goods. 

Wrap Up

This is highly speculative, but it's fun to guess. We'll learn more in September and there may be some more hints in the quarterly financial calls or Musk's tweets. We'll see if any of these guesses turn out to be accurate.

The Ultimate Nerd Road Trip 2017

This summer I'll be taking the Model X on several road trips. One of them I've dubbed The Ultimate Nerd Road Trip 2017.

It's a road trip from Portland, OR to San Diego to attend Comic-Con. I've never been to Comic-Con. This should be fun. A friend and I are leaving from Portland. After a few charging stops, we'll arrive in San Jose to pick up our third amigo. After a night in San Jose, all three of us will continue south the next morning.

We'll spend several days at the con and in San Diego then head back north. While we're heading back, we have scheduled a tour of the Tesla factory in Fremont.

This will be my longest road trip in the Tesla Model X. I've made a page on facebook where I'll be posting photos and updates from the road, the con, and the factory (at least as much as the NDA allows). If you'd like to follow my trek, like the page here.