On July 23rd of this year, Tesla held their Q2'26 financial call. In that discussion, Elon Musk reported that Tesla Robotaxi services would be available to half of the US population by the end of 2025. Based on this, we calculated that Tesla would need to have Robotaxis operational in 37 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) including the Austin and Bay Area regions where they already Robotaxis rolling around.
Yesterday, Musk announced that those plans have changed. On October 22nd, Musk scaled back from half of the US population to "8 to 10" MSAs by the end of 2025. Here's Musk's complete quote:
"We do expect to be operating robotaxi in, I think, about eight to ten metro areas by the end of the year. It depends on various regulatory approvals. You can actually think most of our regulatory applications are online. You can kind of see them because they're public information. We expect to be operating in Nevada, Florida, and Arizona by the end of the year."
Given this scaled back ambition, we did exactly as Musk suggested and took a look at Tesla's permit requests to try to determine which regions Tesla is likely to cover with robotaxis by yearend?
Tesla Robotaxi Permit Applications by Region (as of October 22, 2025)
Tesla has applied for (or obtained) permits in the following states:
| State | Status | Details |
|---|---|---|
| TX | Obtained (August 2025) | Secured statewide rideshare license for unsupervised operations; launched pilot in Austin with fleet expansion. |
| NV | Obtained testing permit (September 2025) | Approved for public road testing; targeting Las Vegas launch by year-end. |
| AZ | Applied (July 2025) | Submitted for robotaxi certification; expected operations by end of year. |
| CA | Applied for partial permits (September 2025) | Seeking ride-hail approvals at San Francisco, San Jose, and Oakland airports; Bay Area expansion in 1-2 months pending full driverless permit. |
| FL | In application process (ongoing) | Regulatory approvals sought for Miami/Tampa; operations expected by end of 2025. |
At the time of writing, I could not find confirmed applications for New York, Illinois, or Colorado.
So, let's look at these confirmed states and see which locations are candidate for these new service areas.
MSAs with Population Over 1,000,000 in States with Confirmed Tesla Robotaxi Permit Applications
Below is the further filtered (list from our July post) of MSAs from Texas, Nevada, Arizona, California, and Florida. This results in 12 MSAs expansion candidates.
Texas (Top 3 MSAs)
| MSA Name | Population (2023 est.) |
|---|---|
| Dallas–Fort Worth–Arlington, TX | 8,100,037 |
| Houston–The Woodlands–Sugar Land, TX | 7,510,253 |
| San Antonio–New Braunfels, TX | 2,703,999 |
Nevada (Primary MSA)
| MSA Name | Population (2023 est.) |
|---|---|
| Las Vegas–Henderson–North Las Vegas, NV | 2,336,573 |
Arizona (2 Largest MSAs)
| MSA Name | Population (2023 est.) |
|---|---|
| Phoenix–Mesa–Chandler, AZ | 5,070,110 |
| Tucson, AZ | 1,063,162 |
California (Top 3 MSAs)
| MSA Name | Population (2023 est.) |
|---|---|
| Los Angeles–Long Beach–Anaheim, CA | 12,799,100 |
| Riverside–San Bernardino–Ontario, CA | 4,688,053 |
| San Francisco–Oakland–Fremont, CA (Bay Area) | 4,566,961 |
Florida (Top 3 MSAs)
| MSA Name | Population (2023 est.) |
|---|---|
| Miami–Fort Lauderdale–West Palm Beach, FL | 6,183,199 |
| Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater, FL | 3,342,963 |
| Orlando–Kissimmee–Sanford, FL | 2,817,933 |
From 50% to Less Than 18% for 2025
In conclusion, Tesla's Robotaxi rollout has shifted from an ambitious nationwide push covering 50% of the US population to a more measured expansion into 6 to 8 new regions for a total of 8 to 10 service areas by year's end. These 12 candidate MSAs encompass roughly 61 million people, or about 18% of the US population. While challenges like regulatory hurdles and safety validations persist, this targeted approach allows Tesla to refine its Full Self-Driving tech at scale with safety monitors as needed.
Ultimately, Robotaxi promises personal mobility at affordable prices. This will empowering the elderly, disabled, or low-income individuals while reducing vehicle crashes and emissions. But you might have to wait until 2026 to try it out for yourself.
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