The Rise and Fall of Oil

Crude Oil vs. Electricity: A Century of Energy Drama (and the Plot Twist Ahead)

Introduction

Humans love energy. Since our first campfire, our energy needs have only increased. We've burned stuff for heat, for transportation, and now to train AI models that hallucinate 6-fingered cat images. For most of the last hundred years, the star of the energy show was crude oil: portable, dense; it worked for cars, planes, and plastics. Electricity started as a sideshow in the 1920s, mostly lighting rich homes, but it has quietly turned into the workhorse that powers everything from fridges to factories. Today, in late 2025, the world guzzles about 195 EJ of primary energy from crude oil and petroleum products every year (roughly 104 million barrels a day), while final electricity consumption sits at around 110 EJ (over 30,500 TWh). Oil still edges it out in raw primary-energy terms, but electricity is closing the gap faster than a performance Tesla in ludicrous mode. The next twenty years look set to flip the script entirely.

Where We Stand Today

In 2024 (the latest year with complete data), global primary energy demand hit roughly 630 EJ. Oil delivered about 31% of that, or 195 EJ, while electricity came in at ~110 EJ. Oil is still ahead, but remember that electricity is way more efficient: almost none of it is wasted as heat up a smokestack before it reaches you. On a useful-energy basis, the two are already neck-and-neck, and electricity is pulling away.

A Quick Romp Through the Last 100 Years

In 1925, the world used approximately 45 EJ total, mostly coal and firewood. At that time, oil was a plucky newcomer at ~8 EJ, and electricity generation was a pathetic 200 TWh (~0.7 EJ). Fast-forward to 1950: oil had climbed to ~30 EJ and was the cool new kid. By 1975, during the disco-and-oil-crisis era, oil peaked at ~45% share and 130 EJ absolute. Electricity had grown to 6,000 TWh (~22 EJ). Since then, oil's share has slid to ~30%, but absolute consumption kept rising. Electricity, meanwhile, multiplied like rabbits: from under 1,000 TWh in 1950 to 15,000 TWh in 2000 to over 30,000 TWh today.

Year	Total Primary Energy (EJ)	Oil (EJ / % share)	Electricity Generation (TWh / EJ equiv.)
1925	~45	~8 / 18%	~200 / 0.7
1950	~100	~30 / 30%	~950 / 3.4
1975	~280	~130 / 46%	~6,200 / 22
2000	~450	~160 / 36%	~15,600 / 56
2024	~630	~195 / 31%	~30,500 / 110
Historical energy consumption trends (approximate values)

Electricity grew ~150× over the century; oil “only” grew ~24×. Moral of the story: wires beat barrels at compounding.

The Next 20 Years: The Great Flippening

According to the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2025, things are about to get spicy. In the realistic Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), oil demand plateaus around 102–104 mb/d through the early 2030s (~210 EJ primary), then gently declines as EVs, efficiency, and petrochemical saturation bite. The more ambitious IEA scenarios see sharper drops, but even the business-as-usual Current Policies path only pushes oil to ~113 mb/d by 2050.

Electricity, on the other hand, is about to go supernova. Demand rises ~40% by 2035 in STEPS, and keeps climbing. By 2045, we are easily looking at 55,000–65,000 TWh (~200–235 EJ). Drivers? Electric cars (840 million on the road by 2035), heat pumps, air-con in a warmer world, and yes, data centres training the next Grok while you read this. Renewables cover most of the growth, with solar and wind doing the heavy lifting and batteries smoothing the bumps. The result: sometime in the 2035–2045 window, electricity overtakes oil as the biggest single chunk of global energy delivery. Oil hangs on for planes, ships, and plastics, but the center stage belongs to electrons.

Primary Energy                     

Useful Energy Is What Matters

Energy Carrier	Primary Energy (2024)	Typical End-Use Efficiency	Approximate Useful Energy Delivered to Society
Crude Oil & Products	~195 EJ	Road transport (ICE cars): 20–30% Aviation/shipping: 35–45% Petrochemicals/heating: 70–90% Weighted global average: ~35–40%	68–78 EJ of useful energy (most of the rest is wasted as engine/boiler heat)
Electricity	~110 EJ (final consumption)	Electric motors: 85–95% LED lighting: 60–90% Heat pumps: 300–500% (COP) Resistance heating: ~99% Weighted global average: ~75–80%	83–88 EJ of useful energy
Bottom line (2024): On a useful-energy basis, electricity already delivers more real work than oil, even though oil still looks bigger in raw primary-energy numbers.

The point of energy is to do useful work: move a car, toast bread, or run a server farm. Electricity dominates in turning primary energy into useful work because it dodges the cursed Carnot limit that caps heat engines at ~40% efficiency. Petrolium must be burned or exploded (throwing away 60% as heat), then fight friction to produce motion. Electricity skips the bonfire: it flows through a wire, spins a 95% efficient motor, or drives a heat pump that delivers 400% “efficiency.” Same joule in, massively more work out. That, friends, is why electrons will eat oil’s lunch.

Useful Energy                       

Conclusion

Over the past century, crude oil took us from horse-drawn carriages to jumbo jets and suburban sprawl. It was a hell of a run. But the physics of efficiency and the economics of plummeting solar/battery costs are merciless. The next twenty years will see electricity surge past oil in useful energy delivered, all while the total energy pie keeps growing to lift billions more people into decent living standards. Oil won’t vanish; it will just become a supporting actor instead of the lead. If that sounds like progress without the doomsday vibes, that’s because it is. The grid is getting cleaner, cheaper, and frankly more fun. Time to plug in your EV, heat pump, and solar panels and enjoy the ride.