The Cybercab Trojan Horse

Tesla Cybercab - Image: Tesla

Tesla unveiled the Cybercab at their 10/10 event. It's a 2-seater with a large rear cargo area and no steering wheel or pedals. During the event, Elon Musk announced the Cybercar would be in volume production in 2026.

Musk has a nearly decade-long history of overly optimistic predictions related to self-driving. Cybercab, as revealed, can only be released once autonomy is solved.*

Self-driving is a "long tail" or "march of nines" problem, meaning there are problems you cannot even know exist until you've solved all the prior issues hiding them; rinse & repeat. This makes clearly seeing the finish line impossible. So what happens when the Cybercab production lines are ready in 2026 if autonomy is still a year or two away from being widely deployable? A pivot. That pivot will be a more affordable Tesla vehicle.

Tesla designed the Cybercab to be an autonomous-first vehicle, but it's still a normal vehicle form factor. This contrasts with a vehicle such as the Zoox, which is far from a standard car. By taking this path, Tesla has left the door open to pivot. 

Zoox Autonomous Vehicle

A More Affordable Tesla

Tesla has teased a $25,000 vehicle in the past. Some call this more affordable car Model 2, we call it Model Next. Musk has said that this more affordable vehicle will not be needed. He claims that the Cybercab will make transportation-as-a-service so affordable and convenient that vehicle ownership will be a luxury that most people will not want.

Musk will eventually be right, but it's unlikely this is what the bulk of the world will look like in the (just around the corner) year 2026. This cheap and easy ride-hail vision may be true in a few cities by then, but a few cities will not support the production of millions of Cybercabs annually. Hence, there's a pivot coming in 2026 where the Cybercab platform will be the trojan horse hiding Model Next.

via Reddit user u/Donfatty

Emerging From Trojan Horse
(it's not just Cybercab with a steering wheel)

First, I must acknowledge that designing Model Next is more complex than adding a steering wheel and pedals to the Cybercab and then hitting the production button. Tesla had a project called NV91 to create Model Next. This program was canceled, but it can still be resurrected in a way that leverages much of the Cybercab platform.

What vehicle will emerge from Cybercab's platform? Let's start with the things that will not carry over. The peddles, steering wheel, and side mirrors are the most obvious additions to Model Next. The Cybercab's butterfly door will certainly be gone. These are great for a cab but too expensive for an affordable car. The large wheels of the Cybercab will not be used on a more affordable Model Next. Smaller wheels are cheaper and more efficient; you can expect to see 16" wheels on Model Next. Two seats: Even a tiny car like the Chevy Spark has four seats; you can expect four seats and four doors on Model Next.

The things that will carry over are under the hood (or frunk). The Model Next will share the same RWD drivetrain and battery pack. This means that Model Next will be the slowest vehicle that Tesla makes (assuming it comes out before the Robovan) and with a range of around 250 miles, it will likely be the shortest-range vehicle that Tesla makes at that time. The focus will be on affordability. If you want more range or better zero to 60, you'll need to look at the Model 3, Y, S, or X. 

Although Model Next added a steering wheel, it will not have mechanical linkage. Model Next will be drive-by-wire like the Cybertruck and may even use the same squared-off steering wheel design.

Next on our list is Etherloop, Tesla's innovative system that replaced the CAN bus in the Cybertruck. You can expect Etherloop in all of Tesla's future vehicles (Model Next included) and eventually, in refreshes of the existing lineup.

Timing

Since Tesla does not want to disrupt their current vehicle sales, you can expect them to keep this announcement under wraps as long as possible. The Model Next test mule vehicles will be skinned as Model 3 or Y vehicles so they don't draw too much attention.

If we're lucky, they'll hold an unveiling event in July'26 and begin taking orders that night for deliveries starting later that same year.

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* Self-driving being "Solved" is an oversimplification. In this case, it means better than a typical human driver. Improvements will continue well beyond that point.