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Thursday, June 4, 2020

2020s The Decade Of The EV


The decade* has not gotten off to a good start: a pandemic, giant killer hornets, racial strife, Ebola outbreak, Michigan dam breaches, Puerto Rico earthquakes, Australian bushfires, Cyclone Amphan, Cyclone Harold, Taal volcano eruption, Brazilian floods & mudslides...

Some of these disasters could leave an indelible mark on this decade; and while I hope that we learn our lessons from these tragedies and improve our society, that's a topic for another forum. This blog is about electric cars and EVs are sure to leave their mark on the 2020s.

Technologies frequently limp along for 10 or 20 years before the stars align and they suddenly become an "overnight success". This decade will be the one where EVs hit this overnight success tipping-point and become the norm. By the end of the decade, new car sales will be dominated by electric vehicles. When you are car shopping in 2029, considering a gas-powered car would be like considering a flip-phone in today's smartphone world.

Source: BloombergNEF
Why do I make this assertion?
  • First, EVs are more fun to drive (they are quieter, smoother, quicker) 
  • Gas prices are volatile and change with the whims of politics, saber-rattling, hurricane refinery outages... Electricity prices are far more stable and you can even generate it yourself from your own roof.
  • Battery prices have and will continue to drop. Batteries are the most expensive component in electric cars today and their price of manufacture has continued to drop. More battery factories are being built today than ever before in history.
  • EVs will be more affordable than gas cars by 2026. Today, if you consider fueling and maintenance, EVs are cheaper from the long term total cost of ownership perspective. However, for many people today, the initial sticker shock drives them away from an EV purchase. Following on the trend of battery costs, the sticker price for EVs will continue to drop. 
  • Charging speeds will increase. As battery tech improves, the causes of battery degradation will be mitigated and batteries will continue to toughen up and become tolerant to higher charging rates and more heat.
  • Ranges will increase. As battery tech improves, more energy will fit in the same space with less weight. This will be driven by both technology improvements and cost reductions.
  • Charging infrastructure will continue to proliferate. Unless you drive an EV, you are likely unaware of all of the charging infrastructure that already exists. Take a look at the map on plugshare.com, there are many places you can plug-in. And as more people start driving EVs, more infrastructure will be deployed at businesses that want to attract EV drivers and by utilities that want to sell electricity.
  • Electric fuel is cheaper. As I write this, gasoline prices are cheaper than they have been in decades. However, even at $1 per gallon, charging overnight at offpeak rates, I'm paying ~70% less per mile than a similar gas-powered car (25MPG @ $1 per gallon compared to $0.05 per kWh @ 4 miles per kWh). 
  • Update: @KennyBSAT pointed out that I forgot to mention the variety of vehicles that will become available during this decade with choices that can "carry more people or a bunch of stuff or tow, all while maintaining range." Good point!

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