Solar Panels: What if I need a New Roof?

We installed solar panels in 2007 and we added more panels in 2011. Now, all these years later, it's time to replace our roof and we want to keep our solar panels. Where to start?

I had a lot of questions: 

• How does that work?
• How much does it cost?
• Are the footings for the solar racks removed too? 
• How are the roof penetrations sealed until the new roof is installed? 

I'll tell you all the answers I found to these questions. You'll see the contractors we used and how our experience went. I hope you find it helpful. 

Eventually, all roofs need work, so if you have solar panels or you're thinking about solar panels, this could be helpful information. 

Don't Bury the Lede

I usually like to tell the story of our experience and how that led to the conclusions. In this case, I'll reverse that. Here's what I learned. If the conclusions make sense to you, then you can stop reading. If you disagree or don't understand, read on to see how we came to these conclusions (then you can disagree while being well-informed).

So let's just answer each of the above questions: 

• Q:   How does that work?

This process is called a "Removal and Reinstallation" or R&R. Here are the steps: 

1) The solar panels are removed and stored on-site. 

2) The rails are removed and hauled off. 

3) The feet of the mounting system are left on the roof (to be removed along with the old roof). This is so roof penetrations are not exposed and cause leaks. These can be removed for recycling on roof removal day.

4) The old roof is removed.

5) The new roof is installed. 

6) The next step is "Wait." This is a step I didn't expect. I learned that the new solar panels are not installed immediately after the new roof is installed. Instead, after the new roof is installed you have to wait for a "curing time*". This can be 14 to 30 days.

7) Finally, the solar panels are reinstalled (along with new footings and a new racking system*). Then the panels are reconnected to the inverter.

* more on these two questions below 

• Q:   How much does it cost?

If your original installation contract included an R&R clause, you'll want to exercise that option because it can save you money. We had two PV systems on our roof. One had this clause and all 36 panels were removed and reinstalled for just $500. The other, our smaller PV system, on the other hand, had no such clause and we received quotes anywhere from $200 to $300 per panel. With the "per panel" portion of those quotes, the costs add up quickly. We had 20 panels in the smaller system, so using the cheapest bid, it was $4000; on top of the roof expense. So, in total (not counting the roof), our R&R was $4500. This is just to get the solar panels that we already have on our roof removed and then put back. Since they were doing all this work, I considered upgrading but decided to just keep the panels that we have.

• Q:   Are the footings for the solar racks removed too?

Here's another thing that I didn't know. Completely new rack mounting systems are installed as part of the R&R process. Both of our installers did this. There are a couple of reasons: first, rack systems are not that expensive compared to the panels and inverter; second, rack systems have improved significantly over the last decade. Newer systems are quicker to install and less likely to cause roof leaks (I like that).

• Q:   How are the roof penetrations sealed until the new roof is installed?

The rack footings are left on the roof so leak holes are not exposed while waiting for the roof removal crew. These are removed with the old roof. One of our PV systems had aluminum footings. We recycled those. 

Our Story

We first had solar panels installed in 2007 by a local installer called Mr. Sun Solar and then we had a second system installed in 2011 by SolarCity. Sixteen and twelve years later respectively in the summer of 2023, our roof was old and needed to be replaced.

3 Contractors?

We have two solar PV systems on the roof. The roof under them was pretty bad and many of the plywood sheets needed to be replaced. This meant the entire solar system, mounting rails and all, needed to come off. The three contractors were the roofer (Geek Roofing - they don't deal with solar panels), Tesla (they won't touch the non-Tesla system), and Sun Path (for the Mr. Sun Solar system).

1: Tesla

Our contract with SolarCity/Tesla includes an R&R clause that says they will remove and reinstall the system one time, for the small fee of just $500. They would not touch our other, non-Tesla panels 😞 so we had to find a second solar contractor for that work.

2: Sun Path

The other, older, PV system was installed by Mr. Sun Solar. They are no longer in business, so we had to find someone else to remove and replace these panels. It took a lot of phone calls and emails. We were told over and over by various solar contractors that they would not touch a system they hadn't installed. After calling about 20 solar companies, we finally found 3 companies that would do it. The bids ranged from $200 per panel to $300 per panel. There are 20 panels in this system. That means the cost ranged from $4000 to $6000 to remove and reinstall the system. I understand that it is a lot of work and they need to be paid for it, but in the end, we just have the same PV system that we started with. Compared to the $500 for the Tesla system, $4000+ is hard to swallow. After confirming the contractor license and checking BBB for complaints (and finding no complaints), we selected the cheapest bid, Sun Path Services. I was really happy with their work (more on this later).

3 Geek Roofing

Oh yeah, the point of all of this was to get a new roof. We contacted several roofers and received 4 bids. We were hoping to find a roofer that could also handle the non-Tesla R&R, but had no luck there. Some made referrals, but none would do it themselves or subcontract it.

After looking at all the quotes, unlike the solar remove/reinstall, we didn't select the cheapest bid this time. Roofing materials have improved greatly since our original roof was installed in the mid-1990s. We selected Geek Roofing because they impressed us with their presentation, attention to detail, and advanced materials. The contract included gable vents, a new skylight, and more.

Timeline Scheduling 

We wanted to have the panels off the roof for as short a time as possible. With three contractors to coordinate, this was not easy; here's how it went.

May 26th - Tesla Solar Removal 

7AM: The doorbell chimes! They are here to start the removal of the SolarCity Tesla panels. It's a team, 5 members strong. I snap a couple of before pictures of the roof/panels. They put an empty pallet on the patio and leaned ladders against the house as if storming a castle. Up the ladders they go; our guard dog barks, and Here Comes The Rooster rings out from their boombox as they work; a little revenge on my neighbors for all those early morning leaf blowers and pressure washers😆 An hour or so in, a battery from a portable tool, tumbles off the roof and hits the deck with a loud 'thump'; startling, but no damage to anything or anyone below.

9:30AM: Just two and a half hours later, the panels are stacked up on the patio. The crew is packing up and I snap a couple of after photos. They left several meters of wiring conduit on the roof. I pointed that out and said, "This is still on the roof and needs to be removed so the new roof can be installed there." The Tesla rep assured me that it is no problem for the roofers to slide under those. They also left the mounting pucks/feet on the roof. They said they're left on so they don't expose roof penetrations and cause leaks. They can be removed and disposed of with the old roof. They hop in their truck and van and they are off to another job. It was impressive how fast they were. Cost: $150

Old roof with solar panels removed

Tesla Solar Panels Stacked Up

10:30AM: I sent photos of the conduit to our roofer and asked if this was going to be a problem. I was ready to call Tesla and tell them to come back and finish the job. I didn't want to have our roofing crew show up and then not be able to get started because there was still solar wiring on the roof. To my surprise the roofer said it was 'no problem'; they could work around it. 

June 5th - Mr. Sun / SunPath Removal

1PM: The dog barks and I look out the window to see a truck pulling up. It was Chet from SunPath. He was here right on time to remove the Mr. Sun Solar panels from our roof. Unlike the crew from Tesla, this was a one-man effort. Chet removed the panels and rails and carefully leaned the panels against the fence (these are 16-year-old panels after all). Cost: $1300 

June 9th - Roofing Supplies Arrive 

7:30AM - Doorbell chimes, I was still in bed asleep. Throw on some clothes and open the door. The shingles and other roof supplies were here. This job is scheduled to start in 2 or 3 days and they didn't tell us to expect a delivery before then. I move the car out of the driveway and a giant crane truck moves in. It hoists pallets of roofing materials off the truck and up onto the roof. This seems like a much smarter way to do it than carrying them up a ladder by hand. 20 minutes of pounding supports into place and craning it all up there and they were gone. Some materials were left in the driveway. We moved these to the side of the house so we could go in and out of our garage. 

New Shingles Arrived

June 12th - Roof Removal Day 

A big deuce-and-a-half style truck backed into our driveway at 7:45AM. Tarps went down and ladders went up. The hammering and sawing went on throughout the day as materials rained down and fell in (or at least near) the bed of the truck. 

Old Roof Removal

June 13th - Roof Install Day 

The new roof is going on. Our old roof didn't have air intakes on the roof or an apex vent; the new one will. The new air intakes are generally installed 3 feet from the gutter; however, this area will be covered by our solar panels. So the roofing team decided to install the air intake a little lower on the roof so air flow is less likely to be impeded by the panels. 

New Roof Being Installed

June 14th - Final Roof Day

For the final day, we have a half crew. They were installing the new skylight and cleaning up.

June 15th - Pressure Washing and Haul Away (guess yesterday wasn't the final day)

They ran the nail magnet around the house one more time. Final walk-through. There were a few minor things that were found in our review with them: The flue was supposed to be repainted, the pressure washing job was not complete, and one of the roof anchors was missing.  

June 16th - Pressure Washing Round 2 - Fix the things from the final walk-through

They fixed all the issues from the walk-through and our new roof was looking good.

New Roof Complete
(now it's time to get the panels back up there)

Tip: Magnet Sweep It For Yourself 

A tip I received from a friend was to run a magnet over my lawn before mowing and over the driveway before driving over it. I assured him that they had a big rolling magnet and they ran it over the area twice, so that was unnecessary. He insisted, dug out a magnet wand that he had, handed it to me, and said that he'd buy me a beer if I didn't find a bunch of stuff they missed. With nothing to lose, I couldn't say 'no' to that deal. 

Magnet Pickup Tool

Well, he was right and I didn't get that free beer, but I did avoid a punctured tire and having my lawn mower blade launch a nail at the speed of sound into who-knows-what. Here are the things I found:   

Found After Roof Work

I cannot tell you that all of this is from this job. Some of them are pretty rusted and may have been there for a while, but now they are collected. I also cannot promise to buy you a beer if you don't find anything after your roof work, but I do highly recommend that you use a magnetic pickup tool after any roof work. 

Scheduling the Solar Reinstalls

Now that the roof was complete, I wanted to get both PV systems back to production as quickly as possible; some sunny days were coming.

I text SunPath first. They quickly got back to me and said they could be there on July 5th. That was easy. 

Tesla, on the other hand, was not so simple. Our Tesla energy rep was not returning my emails or calls. I tried to schedule the reinstallation via the app, but we already had an open "Remove and Reinstall," case (and had someone assigned to it) so I didn't want to open another one that was just a reinstall. Eventually, with nowhere left to turn, I called the customer support line, went through the long phone tree, waited out the hold time (thank you for the 'hold for me' feature on my phone), and finally, I talked to someone. They updated our case, flagged it for scheduling, and said that I would be able to schedule the reinstall date in the app in 3 to 5 days.

"Cure Time"

Both SunPath and Tesla require a waiting period after the roof is complete before they will reinstall the solar panels. SunPath required 2 weeks and Tesla required 30 days. I guess this is to make sure there are no problems with the roof before they go up and there. 

Reinstall - SunPath 

July 5th SunPath Reinstall Day

The SunPath crew of three people arrived at 8AM. They laid out all the panels in the grass and cleaned them. The panels were really dirty and desperately needed to be cleaned. The new panels were completely installed and ready to power on before 2PM. 

Power-on unfortunately was not smooth. The old SMA SunnyBoy inverter didn't want to start up. They spent a couple hours on the phone with SMA support before they found the magic settings that would allow the old girl to get going again. Cost: $2700

Reinstall - Tesla Solar

August 11th Tesla Solar Reinstallation Day 

The Tesla crew arrived just before 8AM. All the panels were installed and wired up before 11AM. But there were two problems. One, the panels were really dirty. They have sitting on a pallet under a tree for 6 weeks. You can see how dirty they were in this photo: 

Dirty Solar Panels

I asked them to clean the panels. They said, "No problem," and hosed the panels off. They cleaned up easily. 

The second problem was a grounding wire. It's not easy to see, but if you look left of the house, you can see the wire hanging down in this photo: 

Dangling Ground Wire

It looks like they forgot about it. I asked them to reconnect this. Seems like it might be important. They said they'd take care of it. Great, I went back in the house. I came back out about a half hour later and they were gone. Okay, they could have knocked and said they were done.

I did a walk-through to see how it all looked. I could see things running at the inverter. I could see the solar production in the app. They didn't leave any gear. So far, so good.

Then I got around to the corner of the house with the grounding wire. It was gone. Rather than reconnecting it to the solar panels, they just removed it. When they reinstalled the panels, they didn't put them back exactly where they were the first time. They shifted them about a meter away from this ground wire. Rather than extending the wire, they just *removed* the ground wire completely. If you know anything about electricity, then you know ground connections are an important safety concern. 

I immediately messaged them. I didn't know if it was safe to leave the system operating without this wire connected. I received a reply that simply said that "the grounding wire was not needed" with no additional information.

I was not happy with this terse response. I asked for more information. I explained that before the removal, there was a connected ground wire, so part of reinstallation must include reconnecting this ground wire and that I was not sure that it was safe to keep the system operating without this connected. Again the only response I received was "This wire is not required." Ugh. I insisted that they install the grounding wire. They refused.

This was a removal and reinstallation. No changes to the system were part of the deal. I was not a happy customer.

Are you can see, things were not going well with Tesla. They were failing at communications. I expressed a safety concern and received a condescending "don't worry about it" response. Cost: $350.

SunPath to the Rescue

I remembered the SunPath folks telling me they have done several Tesla R&R jobs. Maybe they know more about the ground wire. So I emailed Chet at SunPath and asked him about it. If it was needed, I was ready to pay him to do what Tesla had refused to do. 

The answer I received from Chet was comprehensive and explained (in detail) that the Oregon electrical code was updated a few years ago and that auxiliary ground wires like this one were no longer required by code. Aux ground wires are no longer part of new solar installations and it is not required for safety. I wish Tesla would have given me this information (at least the second or third time I asked). Cost $0 - priceless peace of mind.

Final Reinstallation

Now that it was all done, Geek Roofing wanted to double-check things and make sure the solar installers had not messed up their roof. They came out in a car, with no ladders. I was wondering how they were going to check the work without getting up on the roof. The answer was a drone. The little thing buzzed up there and landed on the roof near the panels. The camera was low enough that there was a clear view of the roof under the solar panels. The drone hopped from spot to spot as they checked various spots and connections. They gave it a thumbs up and hit the road. I received a copy of the video later that day. 

Lessons Learned

1. If you are installing a PV system, make sure your contract has an R&R clause in it. This saved us $3500 for the system that had it ($500 compared to $4000). Roof damage and aging can happen and this clause will save you some money at a time that you're already spending for a high-dollar item in a new roof.
2. Pick a larger solar company. There's no guarantee that they will still be in business 10+ years later, but the odds are a little better and things happen and you may need some service. 
3. Sweep for nails, clips, staples, etc. even after they have. 
4. If you want prompt attentive service, pick a local installer. (I know this is at odds with lesson #2)
5. Your costs associated with solar R&R work might be eligible for tax incentives.
   
   

Check For Incentives

If you're considering solar, it's worth looking into the incentives that are out there. In the US, there's a 30% federal incentive. In Oregon, there's a $0.20 per Watt incentive. If you're in the Energy Trust region, there's an additional $400 incentive. If you qualify, these can add up. 

Referrals 

If you're within 50 miles of SunPath's office in Beaverton, Oregon; I recommend getting a quote from them for your solar project. Also (after you have the quote) if you tell them you were referred by Patrick from CarsWithCords.net, you'll get $500 off and I'll receive a referral bonus. 

If you're considering Tesla for your solar project, you can use my referral code (https://ts.la/patrick7819) for $500 off and I'll receive referral points for Tesla merch.

   

Ω

6 Cent Electricity

The average electricity rate in the U.S. is currently 15.73 cents per kilowatt-hour. Hawaii has the highest average electricity rate of 41.6 cents per kilowatt-hour. While, North Dakota has the lowest average electricity rate of 10.23 cents per kilowatt-hour.

These are averages, so I'm sure there are some electrically co-ops out there that are cheaper. I'm not on one of those. Yet, my electric bill is only 6 cents per kWh. 

To be clear, my utility does not charge 6 cents to everyone; the standard residential rate here is 17.53 cents per kWh. This is just over the national average, yet I'm paying well below the lowest state average (North Dakota's 10.23 cents).

To get the 6 cent rate I had to optimize. This optimization required home energy storage batteries, solar panels, and changing rate plans.

The Plan

We have solar panels, but annually, they do not produce enough to zero-out our electricity bill. However, maybe we can use this energy to not only reduce the amount we purchase from the utility, but also to reduce the price we pay for the electricity that we do buy.

Our plan was to switch from the standard flat rate plan to the time-of-use (TOU) rate schedule that our utility offers. This TOU rate schedule charges more than the flat rate during peak hours (29 cents) and also more during mid-peak at 22 cents, but TOU charges significantly less than the basic rate during off-peak (6 cents). So, our plan was to reduce or eliminate all non-off-peak grid usage by using solar and batteries. As I said, our PV system is not big enough to offset all of our energy needs, but (with batteries) maybe it can eliminate our peak and mid-peak usage. 

A Sunny Day

Here's a graph of our solar production, home usage, battery activity (3 Powerwalls), and grid usage on a cool and sunny spring day.

data was collected via the netzero app

Let's breakdown the more important of these. First, our home's usage. This is where most of the energy goes, so let's start there. You can see in grey, overnight we're using the grid to power our home. This is when the grid has surplus capacity and when we get that nice low 6 cent rate. Increasing usage during these hours means that the infrastructure that's already deployed, is better utilized.

  

Morning (6AM - 10AM): Once 6AM arrives, the first peak rate window starts, and the battery takes over (shown in green). It will be another hour or so before the sun comes up. As the solar panels wake up, they take over and the battery ramps down.

Mid-day (10AM-5PM): For the bulk of the day solar powers our home, covering the mid-peak and the start of the evening peak window. 

Evening (5PM-10PM): There's a second peak window from 5PM - 8PM; the sun sets during this time and the roles of the battery and solar are reverse from their morning dance. As the sun sets the battery output ramps up, filling in the gaps the dimming light cannot provide. Once the peak rate period ends at 8PM, the battery will use whatever energy is left over above its outage/backup reserve to power our home during the mid-peak from 8PM till 10PM.

Night (10PM - 6AM): We've made it to the off-peak hours. This is when we'll charge up our battery and our electric cars. 

We looked at our home's use, now let's look at the grid activity since that's what will determine the bill.

Morning (6AM - 10AM): When the morning peak rate kicks in, we stop drawing power from the grid. As the solar ramps up and starts producing more than our home needs, the surplus is feed to the grid, running our meter backwards during peak prices. 

Mid-day (10AM-5PM): Once the peak has passed, that surplus solar goes towards recharging our battery rather than the grid, you can see the gap in the solar from 10AM till 11AM. Once the Powerwalls are full, the surplus solar goes again to the grid. By 5PM our surplus solar production has nearly stopped. This was about a week before the spring equinox, so the sunsets will keep getting later over the next few months.

Evening (5PM-10PM): We were effectively off grid for this time during the evening peak rate time. 

Night (10PM - 6AM): You can see the energy use from the grid jump as soon as the off-peak rate started. The green is area is going to charge the batteries and the blue is running our home. 

Wrapping Up

For this day, we our net usage was negative 7.2 kWh. So we could have been off grid for the entire day. Instead, we were active positive participants. We supplied energy to the grid during the peak and mid-peak hours. We didn't import from the grid at all during these times of highest demand and we used the grid at off-peak times when there's surplus supply from the plants that can't just shut-off or the massive wind turbines in the gorge that often spin the hardest during nightly winds. It's nice to be positively contributing, greening the grid, and getting a cheaper electricity rate even on the days that we're not net positive.

Referral

If you're considering Tesla for your solar project, you can use my referral code (https://ts.la/patrick7819) for $500 off and I'll receive referral points for Tesla merch.

Tesla Model Y :: 5000 Mile Report

We just crossed the 5k mile mark in our 2023 Tesla Model Y LR AWD.

In the summer of 2023, we picked up our new Tesla. It's been a lot of fun. In the ~6 months that we've owned the car, we've received 8 software updates. These are little presents from Tesla; they bring bug fixes and new features. One of those updates enabled Full-Self Driving in our Model Y. FSD is a great feature and it makes long drives so much less stressful.

Soon after picking up the car, we ordered and installed the roof rack system. As the weather turned, we installed winter tires.

Road Trips

With over 300 miles of range, we're able to make many trips without even charging while out and about. We made multiple trips from our house in west Portland suburbs to Corvallis. We're able to do this round trip without charging which makes it very convenient. Additionally, there are several Superchargers along this route where we could stop if needed; so there's no range anxiety even if we want to push the range. 

Similarly, we were able to make a long weekend trip to Astoria and back without any on-route charging. To be clear, I'm not against using Superchargers; but, when possible, I'd rather leave the Supercharger stalls available for the people that really need them.

Speaking of Superchargers, I have Supercharged once during these 6 months of ownership. A new Supercharger V4 location opened in Wilsonville and we stopped in to get a little juice. 

Tesla V4 Supercharger stalls in Wilsonville, OR

Speed & Range

Soon after picking up the vehicle, we signed up for TeslaFi. It tracks a lot of data about your vehicle. If you're a data person, this is the service for you. Here's a chart of our Efficiency relative to speed. 

As you can see, if you really want to maximize range, drive in the 25-30 MPH range. However, it's surprising how little the efficiency drops going from 35 to 65. The Model Y is super aerodynamic for its size. It's worth pointing out that most of these drives are during the winter with snow tires, so things will look even better this summer.

Battery Degradation

Long time readers will know that I started tracking battery degradation way back when we had a 2011 Nissan Leaf. I continued this tracking to our Model X and now with the Model Y. Thankfully, the battery longevity performance has improved with each vehicle that we've owned. Maybe a side by side comparison of Year-1 for all three would be a good future story. 

During this 6 months / 5000 miles of ownership, we've had some normal minor degradation. The first 6 month is generally the worst you'll ever see. Degradation rates decrease over time. Here's how our battery health has fared: 

We'll be back for the 1-year report to see if the degradation starts to level out. 

If you'd like to buy a Model Y (or any other Tesla product), you can use my referral code: https://ts.la/patrick7819

You Cannot Conserve Your Way To Net-Zero

Why a literal (and figurative) power shift is required for a future free from fossil fuels. 

You can turn down your thermostat on your natural gas-powered furnace and drive a hybrid car and these actions will have a minor impact on your CO2 footprint. However, even when used frugally, these are fossil fuel-based energy sources. Even modest use still perpetuates the industries that exploit these resources. No matter how frugal you are with them, you can never have a zero emissions result. 

"But I'll use carbon offsets," I hear some of you proclaim. More than 90% of carbon offsets are scams. Paying someone to not cut down tree A is great, but if that just means tree B is cut down instead, then fundamentally, nothing has changed.

Continuing to use fossil fuels is like the old joke, "Since I Lost One of My Lungs, I’ve Cut My Smoking In Half." Energy deprivation is futile and it reduces quality of life. We need a better answer.

Electrify All The Things

Rather than reduction and deprivation to minimize fossil fuel usage, a new energy system is needed. One that is based on renewable energy. Solar, wind, hydro... these generate energy in the form of electricity; which means, we need the machines that perform our labors to run on electricity rather than liquid fuels. We need cars, trucks, semis, trains, planes, boats... all to be electrically powered. For some of these, we have solutions today, others are emerging, and for some, another score of battery technology advancements will be required, but the transition must occur. Furnaces will transition to heat pumps. Gas stovetops will give way to the superior experience of induction cooktops. 

If we electrify our homes, offices, transportation, and more; and power these devices with renewable energy, then we can lead an energy-abundant lifestyle rather than an energy-deprived lifestyle.

Here's how we should proceed: 

Today, right now, we should deploy the renewable energy technologies that we have. Solar, wind, batteries, EVs, protein fermentation, induction cooktops, heat pumps... There's no need to wait for the next big breakthrough to move the bulk of our energy use to electricity. Wind and solar are complementary and once installed, incremental production is very affordable.

Every sunny rooftop should have solar panels. Every highway on-ramp clover leaf should have a solar field. Every parking lot should have solar canopies. Wind turbines onshore, offshore, running the ridgeline... 

Every substation should have banks of batteries for filling in the intermittent gaps, energy peak shaving and valley filing. Every vehicle on the road should have a big battery and no tailpipe. That big battery can double as home energy storage and demand shifting. 

Protein fermentation allows massive acres used for meat farming, grazing, and feed crops to be reclaimed, allowing more space for wildlife and human expansion.

Turning down the thermostat and getting a little better fuel economy are not enough. We need a better way. It's time for a phase change. We need a literal and figurative power shift. We need to live regeneratively.

60 Thousand Places To Plug In

January 1st, 2024

I periodically check out the alt-fuel map that the US government maintains. 

You can see in the image above that there are just over 60 thousand places in the US where you can plug in and charge an EV at Level 2 or faster.

Here's the link: https://www.energy.gov/alternative-fueling-station-locator#/find/nearest?country=US&fuel=ELEC&ev_levels=all

March 2023

When I looked at the same map in March of 2023, there were nearly 50 thousand plug-in spots. So more than 10 thousand plug-in stalls were added in less than a year.

Going even further back in time, to one of the first times I looked at this site, there were only 10 thousand public charging spots in the US in 2015 (sorry I didn't grab a screenshot back then).

So EV charging infrastructure is rolling out faster now than it ever has. This is vital to EV adoption. As discussed here, this US infrastructure will change to the North American Charging Standard (NACS) in 2024 and later. 

This move to NACS is important. For EVs to go mainstream, charging has to be easy. You cannot expect people to understand all the various charging options, connectors, AC or DC, and on and on. Once NACS is widely adopted, there will be one connector that "just works." That same connector at home, at work, on road trips... You just plug in and charge up. The Plug-n-Charge standard will make billing easy.

Happy electric motoring in 2024!

Talkin 'Bout My Generation

I don't blog much about solar here compared to the EV content. Usually, our solar panels sit on the roof, quietly and ardently generating energy from sunshine. However, in 2023 a lot happened: we replaced our roof (that was complicated with solar panels up there); the virtual power plant (VPP) that our utility, PGE, runs had a big rule change. The VPP rule change meant that we had to contact Tesla to enable a new feature on our Powerwall systems. All of this seemed worthy of a 2023 review.

New Roof

The roof replacement has to be the first thing covered since this means the panels were off the roof for a good portion of the summer. We're north of the 45th parallel so the summer months are by far our most productive. So this downtime ate into the heart of our generation time.

Our roof replacement was scheduled for June 12th through June 14th. Roughly speaking, day 1 was old roof removal, day 2 was new roof installation, and day 3 was skylight installation and final cleanup.

With the scheduled removal & reinstallation (RnR) of the solar panels. We wanted to have the panels off the roof for as short a time as possible. We have two solar systems on our roof. A 4kW system from a local installer (Sunpath Services) and an 8kW system from Tesla (SolarCity).

May 26th

Tesla Solar panels removed

June 5th

SunPath Systems panels removed

June 12-14th

New roof installed

July 5th

SunPath Systems solar panels reinstalled. Panels were off for 31 days.

August 12th

Tesla solar panels reinstalled. Panels were off for 79 days.

The Tesla RnR took almost 3 times as long compared to Sunpath. With the Tesla PV system as the larger of the two and offline for all of June, all of July, and half of August, we missed the bulk of the solar production for the year.

The good news is that we installed a 50-year roof, so that shouldn't be a problem ever again for these panels.

Side note, we were picking nails and other things out of our lawn and shrubs for days after this roof work, even after they magnet swept multiple times.

Virtual Power Plant

We signed up for our electric utility's VPP in 2021. To be eligible, you had to have home batteries, such as the Tesla Powerwall. When the program started, the utility paid you $20 every month. In return, your battery is available when they call on it to supply energy to the grid; you could opt out of the VPP events.

In June of 2023, the rules changed. Under the new rules, rather than just getting paid for enrollment, you now get paid for participation. The program pays $1.70 per kWh that you export to the grid during a VPP event and you can select the level of participation (up to 80% of your capacity).

With our 3 Powerwalls we have about 40 kWh of storage, so that's about 32 kWh that we could export. A full 80% participation would be $54 earned per event.

We had a total of 12 VPP dispatch events in 2023. As you might expect, most were in the summer (7 events in June - Sept). The other 5 were in January, February, and December. This surprised me. You expect the grid to be strained during the summer months with the AC units on high and dispatching the VPP seems like a smart way to avoid turning on the peaker plants. Maybe these events are in response to outages or maybe these events are testing new VPP controls.

VPP Incentive Payments

January - May we received the standard $20 per month credit. In June the new program started there was a quick 1kWh test. We received a $1.70 credit. In July, there were two small events and we received $32 in credit. August had a small event and we received $9. Our September bill had multiple events and received a credit of $157. This was a big credit and paid our next couple of electricity bills.

In total for 2023, we received a total of $325 in credits from our utility.

We Stopped Exporting

There were two dispatch events in December of 2023 and our system didn't participate. I emailed PGE and asked them if they knew why my system was not exporting. They said there have been multiple software changes to both their system and the Tesla systems. Now to participate, I had to enable Powerwall exporting in the Tesla app. They sent simple instructions to go into the Powerwall settings and enable export "Everything."

Going into the app, I didn't see any export setting. I double-checked the instructions. I was in the right place, but the setting was not there. Another email to PGE. They said Tesla had to enable this and then it would appear in the app. So I called Tesla Energy. Happily, I was not on hold for very long and the person who answered the phone (Justin) understood what I was asking for and was able to resolve it. He said to wait one hour and the setting should be there, if not reboot my phone and check again. Of course, I could not wait an entire hour before looking. The setting appeared in about 10 minutes and I enabled it.

Side Effects

Once this feature was enabled, the next morning when we hit peak time (6AM-10AM), our Powerwall exported all of its energy down to the Backup Reserve limit. That was not the behavior I expected. By going into the TOU settings and tweaking sell prices, I was able to leave this setting enabled (to participate in VPP events), but not have it completely drain the battery during every peak time.

Now we had Export Everything enabled and good daily battery behavior. We're ready for the next VPP event.

Outages

In 2023, there were several times our Powerwalls kept our house running when the grid failed. The longest outage was for 3 hours on August 7th.

Solar Year In Review

Above I explained how we had all of the panels off our home for most of the summer for a roof replacement. That put a big dent in our production. The older 4kW panels produced 3,246 kWh and the Tesla 8kW panels produced 5,113 kWh, for a total of 8,359 kWh. For comparison, in 2022 we generated over 20,000 kWh. So in 2023, we generated less than half of our typical production level just by missing 80 key days.

Exports

Throughout 2023, we sent 1,937 kWh of energy into the grid. A large refrigerator uses about 1,575 kWh annually. So we exported enough energy to run our neighbor's fridge for a year with enough left over to power their EV for about 1,000 miles.

Wrapping Up

2023 was an action-packed year for our home energy systems. For 2024, we should go back to our full production level. And 2024 will be our first full year under the new VPP rules. Earning another $300 or more in credit would be nice.

Tesla 2024 Vehicle Production

Historic Tesla Quarterly Vehicle Production and 2024 Estimates

EV sales are increasing each year and 2024 will undoubtedly continue this tread. As interest rates in the US are reduced throughout 2024, the pressure on vehicle sales in general (EV or not) should be relieved.

Each year on The Tesla Life, we attempt to estimate Tesla's global production for the upcoming year. Last year, my estimate for 2023 was 1.93 million. The actual production was 1,845,985, or 1.85 mil. So I was only off by 4%. Of the three hosts/panelists on the show, I was the closest. However, one former panelist, Russel, guessed 1.88 mil and edged me out by 50,000 vehicles. He was only off by 1.5% (impressive). 

I want to beat him (and the other panelists again) this year. So I'm going to crunch the numbers in many ways and come out with a guess at the end of the post.

Contest Rules 

We have to publicly share our guess on January 17th which we generally do live on the show. The guess cannot be a range, you only get one guess (no bull number, bear number; no plus or minus 5%...). You can be as specific as you want (e.g., 2,345,678 vehicles) or round it. Rounded values will be expanded with zeros as needed, so a guess of 2 million is considered 2,000,000. You can use any tools you want to generate the estimate, if you want to ask ChatGPT or Grok, go for it. And the most painful part of all, you don't get to update your guess, no matter what news comes out, no matter what Musk says in the earnings calls; no changes.

Estimates

You can see Tesla's quarterly production data back to Q4 2020 is charted in the graph above. One of the ways I've generated estimates is to simply use the trendline feature in Google Sheets. I plotted the trend as Linear, Exponential, and Polynomial and then added up the quarterly results. This gave me results from 2.22 to 2.39 million for 2024.

The next method I used was to look at the quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) growth. From Q4'20, this has been an average of 10%. Extending this into 2024, resulted in 2.03 mil units for 2024. Our lowest result yet. 

Rather than comparing this quarter to last quarter, a quarter is often compared to the same quarter in the previous year; this is called year-over-year (YoY). Looking back further in time, it's not surprising to see a larger growth value average of 47%. Using this YoY value gave an estimate of 2.71 mil (our highest yet). 

If we look at year-over-year, then we have to look at year-on-year (YOY). 2023 was 35% higher than '22. 35% growth would be 2.49 million. However, 2022 was 47% over '21. The average of these two YOY values is 41%. Using this YOY value gives a value of 2.60 mil. 

Next on our list, we'll look at the great work by James Stephenson on X. As you can see in the log scale chart above, James has chosen 2020 as his anchor year and established a 50% sales growth rate. Our estimation game is about Production, not Sales; so let's make a few tweaks to his model and then extend it into 2024. Doing this yields an estimate of 2.58 million; very close to the YOY result.

Looking Forward

All the estimates that we've made so far are based on looking at historic data and various ways to extrapolate that into the future. Now let's flip that around and see if there are big factors that will impact 2024. We briefly touched on interest rates in the opening. This will impact sales more than production, but there is some connection. If inventories get too high, production lines are taken down for upgrades, parts are not expedited... 

There are expansions of multiple Gigafactories planned or underway in 2024. Berlin and Austin have both been operating long enough to be fully staffed and ramped up to high-volume production. This was not the case in early 2023. Giga Mexico, Giga India or any other new location will not be a factor for 2024's production volume. 

As I'm writing this, news reports are coming out that Giga Berlin will stop most output for two weeks due to Red Sea disruption. Tesla has dealt with supply chain problems in the past, so I don't think this will be too big of a factor. Giga Shanghai is the most important factory for out put considerations. 

Model.Next 

When Tesla's Robotaxi platform comes to market, you can expect a significant increase in production volume. This vehicle will have the fastest raw materials to final vehicle time of any mass production vehicle. With the bulk of the vehicle from a single casting and most of the interior being inserted with the structural battery pack and no paint, these vehicles will be popping out of the factory truckloads at a time. However, I don't expect to see this car until 2025 at the earliest. 

Estimate Summary 

2024 Tesla Vehicle Production Estimates
Estimation Method	Volume Estimate
Linear	2,270,000
Exponential	2,390,000
Poly	2,215,000
QoQ	2,028,427 (Lowest)
YoY	2,714,490 (Highest)
YOY23	2,488,050
YOYAve	2,602,700
JS Method	2,580,544
Average	2,410,901

So I've generated 8 estimates and a mean value of those 8 as a 9th estimate. So which one should I use? Or should I go with something else? There's the joke 2,420,069 if you want to throw some Musk humor into the mix (this isn't that far from our average) or even the press the 2 key and run your finger to the right for 2,345,678. Both of which are within the range of estimates that we've generated.

In the past two years, I've been a little optimistic. Since I was over by 4% last time, let's take that average and reduce it by about 4% for something like 2,314,159. 

Leave your estimate in the comments below.

Power Outages & VPP Events

Portland General Electric Power Outage Map Jan 13th 2024

It's been a busy couple of days for our Powerwalls.

Virtual Power Plant 

On Friday, January 12th our electric utility, Portland General Electric, held a VPP event. The event was held from 5PM until nearly 8PM. During the event, we exported a total of 21.6 kWh. This is the first event where we were able to participate at the full 9kW rate available in this program. Previously we were only at the default 3kW export rate.

The we were paid $36.72 for the energy we sent to the grid. This is not a huge amount, but we buy the bulk of our electricity during off-peak times for 5.160 ¢ per kWh and when they have an event like this, we sell energy to the utility for $1.70 per kWh. That's a 3,200% gross margin.

Power Outage

As you can see in the outage map above, over 135 thousand people in my region are currently without power in their home. We've seen snow, sleet, freezing rain, high winds, and falling trees across the area. The winter storm was the result of warm moisture air from the Pacific running into an arctic blast.

Our Powerwalls went into StormWatch mode early on Saturday morning. The power outages started in the early afternoon. So far, we've been lucky and our grid connection continues to operate. The batteries are full and on standby in case that changes. 

Juxtaposition

It's interesting that these events occurred on back to back days. They both require home batteries but they are very different. In the first case, we're supplying energy to the grid to help keep it stable and operational. While in the second case, we're keeping the battery full in order to support our home if/when the grid goes down.

Tesla 2024 :: What To Expect From Tesla This Year

Following Tesla is never boring. 2024 is just starting and there is already writing on the wall that ensures that this year will be no different. The refreshed Model 3 will be coming to the US. The Model Y (the best-selling car in the world) will be refreshed. More Cybertrucks will hit the streets. The semi will move beyond its beta with Pepsi and much more.

Highlander Comes to US

Tesla refreshed the Model 3 last year. This new version of Model 3 was codenamed "Project Highland." Highland offers significant chassis and suspension upgrades; improved build quality; reduced noise, vibration, and harshness (NVH); added range; and colorful LED ambient lighting. The long-range highland boasts an impressive range of up to 353 miles.

Currently, this variant of the Model 3 is available in China and Europe today. In 2024, expect to see this vehicle rolling off the lines in Fremont.

Model Y Update :: Project Juniper 

Similar to the Model 3 update, Model Y will also be getting revamped. The question is, "What portions of this update will be just to catch up with Highlander, and which will be leapfrog concepts?"

The catch-up items: suspension upgrades (changes to the suspension geometry, suspension bushings, and rear subframe mount), minor chassis aero improvements (adding more range), stalkless, ambient lighting. These items are expected in Juniper. 

To be a true Tesla project, more than just just catching up is required. Tesla does not play the innovation game lightly. They make bold moves. Model Y is their best-selling vehicle, but that won't hold them back. Innovation is Tesla's lifeblood. Will they integrate some of the Cybertruck advancements into Model Y? If so, Juniper could have a 48 Volt architecture, steer-by-wire, a power frunk, and/or "Etherloop." The latter seems the most likely.

Model.Next

Call it the $25,000 Tesla, Model 2, Robotaxi platform, or (my preference) Model Next; we will be hearing about this vehicle in 2024. In a late 2023 interview with Sandy Munro, Elon Musk said the design was nearly complete. 

This vehicle will be a game changer for Tesla and the entire auto industry. If we're lucky, Tesla will hold an unveiling event in September of 2024, with deliveries starting in Q1 of 2025. Given that Tesla is currently working on increasing Cybertruck production rate, this is an aggressive prediction but a possibility. Either way, we'll see leaks about this vehicle throughout 2024. 

Here are some of the features we may hear about: entire chassis single casting, steer-by-wire, brake-by-wire, brake-by-motor.

NACS - J3400

Tesla has won the charging wars in North America. CHAdeMO and CCS will fade into history as the Betamax and laserdisc of EV charging. This year we'll see Tesla roll out support for various legacy automakers to start using their Magic Dock Supercharger stations and we'll see adapters coming from these same legacy automakers that allow their CCS vehicles to use the native NACS stations as well as Tesla destination stations. 

The other exciting NACS news to expect in 2024 is the official adoption of NACS (aka SAE J3400) as the official charging standard of the US. The US government still needs to update the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure (NEVI) recommendations to acknowledge NACS. When they do, this will mean for a new EV charging station installation to qualify for Federal infrastructure incentives, most of the handles must be NACS.

Roadster

Our first peek at Roadster was so long ago (December of 2017). Tesla has really been dragging their feet on this one. The justification for the slow roll is that the Roadster is "dessert" and that other projects (Semi, Cybertruck, Highland...) are more important to Tesla's mission than a new sports car. 

So what will 2024 hold for the Roadster? I going to assume, not much. Tesla's 2024 focus will be on increasing Cybertruck production, 4680 volume, Highlander production in the US, and bringing Juniper to market. So sorry Roadster, you might have to wait another year.

If you're a Roadster reservation holder, I hope I'm wrong, but I don't see anything that elevates the Roadster's importance in 2024. It would be cool to see a demo of it hovering via the compressed air COPV tank. 

50s Diner - Rock-n-Charge

We've been hearing about this Tesla diner for some time now. Tesla is creating a place where you can pull in, plug in, and have food delivered to your car while you're charging up. The property has been purchased, permits have been issued, and construction has started. 

I would not be surprised if Tesla integrated ordering into the center screen and/or the Tesla app. With any luck, we'll see a ribbon-cutting slash grand opening in 2024.

Full Self-Driving (FSD) v12 

Version 12 of FSD went out to employees in late 2023 and should be released to other Tesla owners in early 2024. V12 is special, it is the first version to have end-to-end neural nets. V12 has no human-written code included. The inference engine will conduct object recognition, path planning, and vehicle control. 

With any new architecture change like this, there is an initial step backward in performance. This is the stacked sigmoid method that Jim Keller is known for articulating. The new system has the potential for better results, but you cannot start there. Instead, the new architecture starts at the low end of its performance and iterates from there until it has reached the saturation point (asymptotic or point of diminishing returns), and only then do the limitations of the architecture become apparent. Only then (once the limitations are known) can you design the next system to overcome these limitations. Said another way, you must climb the current hill before you can have a view of your next challenge.

In retrospect, end-to-end neural networks is the obvious answer. If human-written code could have solved the autonomy problem, the DARPA Autonomous Vehicle Challenge would have been claimed soon after it started in 2004. Over the 7 years that Tesla has been working on autonomy, the neural nets have been absorbing more and more of the work, now with v12 things have come to the ultimate conclusion; the neural nets now own all of problem-space from photons into the cameras to driving controls out.

Human-written software can't foresee and explicitly code for every situation or edge case that can happen in the real world. The fuzzy logic of AI systems allows for these unforeseen cases to be covered if the training data has enough similar situations for a general guideline to emerge.

Three years ago, here in this blog, we predicted that Tesla would not have true eyes-off-the-road autonomy until at least 2027. I'll be happy to see it arrive sooner, but I would not bet on it. Although, end-to-end neural nets with an occupancy network seems like the right solution. So once v12 enters the linear phase of its evolution (see image above) this year, we will see a rapid improvement in FSD performance. 

FSD in tunnels

So what can we expect to see for FSD in 2024? One of the things I'd like to see is autonomy in the vehicles in the Boring Company Loop Tunnels. This is a controlled environment. There's no cross traffic, no drunk or distracted drivers. This is the perfect place for the initial version of Tesla driverless vehicles.
 

Price Volatility 

In response to interest rates and other factors, Tesla's vehicle prices were volatile in 2023. You can expect more of the same in 2024. Hopefully, this time due to falling interest rates rather than increasing rates. 

In the US, the federal EV incentive has several changes in 2024. The good part of the changes is that the incentive is applied at the point of purchase. This makes the financing much easier. The bad part of the changes is that fewer EVs will qualify for the complete $7500 incentive. 

If you're EV shopping in the US in 2024, you should check the tax incentive rules and vehicles that qualify here.

Production Volumes

2024 will be the year that Tesla produces more than 2 million EVs in a single year. Tesla is yet to release 2024 production guidance. However, given that they produced about 1.8 million vehicles in 2023 and their growth rate, they should produce at least 2.2 million vehicles in 2024. A more detailed estimate will be published soon after Tesla releases their final data.

Cybertruck ramp estimate by Hyperchange YouTube channel

Cybertruck Production Ramp

The above is a bullish estimate from Gallilo Russel. With 2 million reservations, this fast ramp-up is vital to fulfill these and the new reservations that are coming in everyday. As each Cybertruck rolls out onto the streets, it is a rolling billboard for the distinctive profiled vehicle.

Given the many challenges that Tesla faces in producing a vehicle with so many never-been-done-before features, the first year of production is likely to be slow-going, starting with just hundreds per week and ending the year with a run rate of thousands per week. Galli and I agree that production will get to a half million per year, just not how fast it will get there. 

For my 2024, Cybertruck production, I estimate 25,000 to 35,000. However, on NYE 2024, I'll be happy if Galli's estimate is more accurate than mine.

Austin Nature Park Opens to Public 

The Giga Texas production site is enormous (8.5 km^2 or 2,100 acres). One of the things that is planned to be added to this space is a is a nature park that's open to the public. Plans have been submitted to the county and this area could open in 2024.

Knowing Elon's love of all things Monty Python, I expect to see a section of path dedicated to The Ministry of Silly Walks☺

Powerwall 4 - Ironman 

Powerwall 2 Plus and Powerwall 3 came out in 2023. These were nice advancements, but they used the same battery as the Powerwall 2. In 2024, I expect to see a LFP based Powerwall from Tesla. LFP batteries are more tolerant to temperature extremes. The drawback is that they're not as energy dense. So we may see the new LFP Powerwalls coming in at 10kWh instead of the 13.5kWh of the current NMC Powerwalls.   

Optimus Hackus 

In 2023, we saw Optimus sorting blocks, handling eggs, and doing yoga. In 2024, you can expect to see big advancements. Tesla will deploy an Optimus or two in Giga Texas to conduct a simple task and gather real world data. 

Tesla Lithium Refinery

Tesla broke ground on their lithium refinery in Corpus Christi, TX in May of 2023. This year we should see the first results of its operation. The goal of the 1200+ acre site is to reinvent lithium refining and increase the supply of battery-grade lithium hydroxide.

Tesla aims to deploy the first industrial-scale. acid-free lithium refinery. Their process eliminates the use of hazardous reagents and byproducts in favor of inert options. The byproduct from this facility, a mixture of sand and limestone, is useful in the production of construction materials, making beneficial use of traditional waste streams.

This site is also intended to eventually be a battery recycling plant.

Wrapping It Up

A global charging network opening to other vehicles, self driving cars, robots walking around, stainless steel trucks... 2024 is starting to look like the twenty first century, instead of just the 26th iteration of 1999. Even the retro 1950s diner will have the modern twist of EV charging and ordering via apps. 

Disclosure: 
I am long Tesla