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Saturday, March 2, 2024

Tesla Model Y :: 5000 Mile Report

We just crossed the 5k mile mark in our 2023 Tesla Model Y LR AWD.

In the summer of 2023, we picked up our new Tesla. It's been a lot of fun. In the ~6 months that we've owned the car, we've received 8 software updates. Each of these are little presents from Tesla; they bring bug fixes and new features. One of those updates enabled Full-Self Driving in our Model Y. FSD is a great feature and it makes long drives so much less stressful.

Soon after picking up the car, we ordered and installed the roof rack system. As the weather turned, we installed winter tires.

Road Trips

With over 300 miles of range, we're able to make many trips without even charging while out and about. We made multiple trips from our house in west Portland suburbs to Corvallis. We're able to do this round trip without charging which makes it very convenient. Additionally, there are several Superchargers along this route where we could stop if needed; so there's no range anxiety even if we want to push the range. 

Similarly, we were able to make a long weekend trip to Astoria and back without any on-route charging. To be clear, I'm not against using Superchargers; but, when possible, I'd rather leave the Supercharger stalls available for the people that really need them.

Speaking of Superchargers, I have Supercharged once during these 6 months of ownership. A new Supercharger V4 location opened in Wilsonville and we stopped in to get a little juice. 

Tesla V4 Supercharger stalls in Wilsonville, OR

Speed & Range

Soon after picking up the vehicle, we signed up for TeslaFi. It tracks a lot of data about your vehicle. If you're a data person, this is the service for you. Here's a chart of our Efficiency relative to speed. 

As you can see, if you really want to maximize range, drive in the 25-30 MPH range. However, it's surprising how little the efficiency drops going from 35 to 65. The Model Y is super aerodynamic for its size. It's worth pointing out that most of these drives are during the winter with snow tires, so things will look even better this summer.

Battery Degradation

Long time readers will know that I started tracking battery degradation way back when we had a 2011 Nissan Leaf. I continued this tracking to our Model X and now with the Model Y. Thankfully, the battery longevity performance has improved with each vehicle that we've owned. Maybe a side by side comparison of Year-1 for all three would be a good future story. 

During this 6 months / 5000 miles of ownership, we've had some normal minor degradation. The first 6 month is generally the worst you'll ever see. Degradation rates decrease over time. Here's how our battery health has fared: 

We'll be back for the 1-year report to see if the degradation starts to level out. 

If you'd like to buy a Model Y (or any other Tesla product), you can use my referral code: https://ts.la/patrick7819

Sunday, February 11, 2024

You Cannot Conserve Your Way To Net-Zero

Why a literal (and figurative) power shift is required for a future free from fossil fuels. 

You can turn down your thermostat on your natural gas-powered furnace and drive a hybrid car and these actions will have a minor impact on your CO2 footprint. However, even when used frugally, these are fossil fuel-based energy sources. Even modest use still perpetuates the industries that exploit these resources. No matter how frugal you are with them, you can never have a zero emissions result. 

"But I'll use carbon offsets," I hear some of you proclaim. More than 90% of carbon offsets are scams. Paying someone to not cut down tree A is great, but if that just means tree B is cut down instead, then fundamentally, nothing has changed.

Continuing to use fossil fuels is like the old joke, "Since I Lost One of My Lungs, I’ve Cut My Smoking In Half." Energy deprivation is futile and it reduces quality of life. We need a better answer.

Electrify All The Things

Rather than reduction and deprivation to minimize fossil fuel usage, a new energy system is needed. One that is based on renewable energy. Solar, wind, hydro... these generate energy in the form of electricity; which means, we need the machines that perform our labors to run on electricity rather than liquid fuels. We need cars, trucks, semis, trains, planes, boats... all to be electrically powered. For some of these, we have solutions today, others are emerging, and for some, another score of battery technology advancements will be required, but the transition must occur. Furnaces will transition to heat pumps. Gas stovetops will give way to the superior experience of induction cooktops. 

If we electrify our homes, offices, transportation, and more; and power these devices with renewable energy, then we can lead an energy-abundant lifestyle rather than an energy-deprived lifestyle.

Here's how we should proceed: 

Today, right now, we should deploy the renewable energy technologies that we have. Solar, wind, batteries, EVs, protein fermentation, induction cooktops, heat pumps... There's no need to wait for the next big breakthrough to move the bulk of our energy use to electricity. Wind and solar are complementary and once installed, incremental production is very affordable.

Every sunny rooftop should have solar panels. Every highway on-ramp clover leaf should have a solar field. Every parking lot should have solar canopies. Wind turbines onshore, offshore, running the ridgeline... 

Every substation should have banks of batteries for filling in the intermittent gaps, energy peak shaving and valley filing. Every vehicle on the road should have a big battery and no tailpipe. That big battery can double as home energy storage and demand shifting. 

Protein fermentation allows massive acres used for meat farming, grazing, and feed crops to be reclaimed, allowing more space for wildlife and human expansion.

Turning down the thermostat and getting a little better fuel economy are not enough. We need a better way. It's time for a phase change. We need a literal and figurative power shift. We need to live regeneratively.

Sunday, January 28, 2024

60 Thousand Places To Plug In

January 1st, 2024

I periodically check out the alt-fuel map that the US government maintains. 

You can see in the image above that there are just over 60 thousand places in the US where you can plug in and charge an EV at Level 2 or faster.

Here's the link: https://www.energy.gov/alternative-fueling-station-locator#/find/nearest?country=US&fuel=ELEC&ev_levels=all

March 2023

When I looked at the same map in March of 2023, there were nearly 50 thousand plug-in spots. So more than 10 thousand plug-in stalls were added in less than a year.

Going even further back in time, to one of the first times I looked at this site, there were only 10 thousand public charging spots in the US in 2015 (sorry I didn't grab a screenshot back then).

So EV charging infrastructure is rolling out faster now than it ever has. This is vital to EV adoption. As discussed here, this US infrastructure will change to the North American Charging Standard (NACS) in 2024 and later. 

This move to NACS is important. For EVs to go mainstream, charging has to be easy. You cannot expect people to understand all the various charging options, connectors, AC or DC, and on and on. Once NACS is widely adopted, there will be one connector that "just works." That same connector at home, at work, on road trips... You just plug in and charge up. The Plug-n-Charge standard will make billing easy.

Happy electric motoring in 2024!

Sunday, January 21, 2024

Talkin 'Bout My Generation

I don't blog much about solar here compared to the EV content. Usually, our solar panels sit on the roof, quietly and ardently generating energy from sunshine. However, in 2023 a lot happened: we replaced our roof (that was complicated with solar panels up there); the virtual power plant (VPP) that our utility, PGE, runs had a big rule change. The VPP rule change meant that we had to contact Tesla to enable a new feature on our Powerwall systems. All of this seemed worthy of a 2023 review.

New Roof

The roof replacement has to be the first thing covered since this means the panels were off the roof for a good portion of the summer. We're north of the 45th parallel so the summer months are by far our most productive. So this downtime ate into the heart of our generation time.

Our roof replacement was scheduled for June 12th through June 14th. Roughly speaking, day 1 was old roof removal, day 2 was new roof installation, and day 3 was skylight installation and final cleanup.

With the scheduled removal & reinstallation (RnR) of the solar panels. We wanted to have the panels off the roof for as short a time as possible. We have two solar systems on our roof. A 4kW system from a local installer (Sunpath Services) and an 8kW system from Tesla (SolarCity).

May 26th

Tesla Solar panels removed

June 5th

SunPath Systems panels removed

June 12-14th

New roof installed

July 5th

SunPath Systems solar panels reinstalled. Panels were off for 31 days.

August 12th

Tesla solar panels reinstalled. Panels were off for 79 days.

The Tesla RnR took almost 3 times as long compared to Sunpath. With the Tesla PV system as the larger of the two and offline for all of June, all of July, and half of August, we missed the bulk of the solar production for the year.

The good news is that we installed a 50-year roof, so that shouldn't be a problem ever again for these panels.

Side note, we were picking nails and other things out of our lawn and shrubs for days after this roof work, even after they magnet swept multiple times.

Virtual Power Plant

We signed up for our electric utility's VPP in 2021. To be eligible, you had to have home batteries, such as the Tesla Powerwall. When the program started, the utility paid you $20 every month. In return, your battery is available when they call on it to supply energy to the grid; you could opt out of the VPP events.

In June of 2023, the rules changed. Under the new rules, rather than just getting paid for enrollment, you now get paid for participation. The program pays $1.70 per kWh that you export to the grid during a VPP event and you can select the level of participation (up to 80% of your capacity).

With our 3 Powerwalls we have about 40 kWh of storage, so that's about 32 kWh that we could export. A full 80% participation would be $54 earned per event.

We had a total of 12 VPP dispatch events in 2023. As you might expect, most were in the summer (7 events in June - Sept). The other 5 were in January, February, and December. This surprised me. You expect the grid to be strained during the summer months with the AC units on high and dispatching the VPP seems like a smart way to avoid turning on the peaker plants. Maybe these events are in response to outages or maybe these events are testing new VPP controls.

VPP Incentive Payments

January - May we received the standard $20 per month credit. In June the new program started there was a quick 1kWh test. We received a $1.70 credit. In July, there were two small events and we received $32 in credit. August had a small event and we received $9. Our September bill had multiple events and received a credit of $157. This was a big credit and paid our next couple of electricity bills.

In total for 2023, we received a total of $325 in credits from our utility.

We Stopped Exporting

There were two dispatch events in December of 2023 and our system didn't participate. I emailed PGE and asked them if they knew why my system was not exporting. They said there have been multiple software changes to both their system and the Tesla systems. Now to participate, I had to enable Powerwall exporting in the Tesla app. They sent simple instructions to go into the Powerwall settings and enable export "Everything."

Going into the app, I didn't see any export setting. I double-checked the instructions. I was in the right place, but the setting was not there. Another email to PGE. They said Tesla had to enable this and then it would appear in the app. So I called Tesla Energy. Happily, I was not on hold for very long and the person who answered the phone (Justin) understood what I was asking for and was able to resolve it. He said to wait one hour and the setting should be there, if not reboot my phone and check again. Of course, I could not wait an entire hour before looking. The setting appeared in about 10 minutes and I enabled it.

Side Effects

Once this feature was enabled, the next morning when we hit peak time (6AM-10AM), our Powerwall exported all of its energy down to the Backup Reserve limit. That was not the behavior I expected. By going into the TOU settings and tweaking sell prices, I was able to leave this setting enabled (to participate in VPP events), but not have it completely drain the battery during every peak time.

Now we had Export Everything enabled and good daily battery behavior. We're ready for the next VPP event.


In 2023, there were several times our Powerwalls kept our house running when the grid failed. The longest outage was for 3 hours on August 7th.

Solar Year In Review

Above I explained how we had all of the panels off our home for most of the summer for a roof replacement. That put a big dent in our production. The older 4kW panels produced 3,246 kWh and the Tesla 8kW panels produced 5,113 kWh, for a total of 8,359 kWh. For comparison, in 2022 we generated over 20,000 kWh. So in 2023, we generated less than half of our typical production level just by missing 80 key days.


Throughout 2023, we sent 1,937 kWh of energy into the grid. A large refrigerator uses about 1,575 kWh annually. So we exported enough energy to run our neighbor's fridge for a year with enough left over to power their EV for about 1,000 miles.

Wrapping Up

2023 was an action-packed year for our home energy systems. For 2024, we should go back to our full production level. And 2024 will be our first full year under the new VPP rules. Earning another $300 or more in credit would be nice.

Wednesday, January 17, 2024

Tesla 2024 Vehicle Production

Historic Tesla Quarterly Vehicle Production and 2024 Estimates

EV sales are increasing each year and 2024 will undoubtedly continue this tread. As interest rates in the US are reduced throughout 2024, the pressure on vehicle sales in general (EV or not) should be relieved.

Each year on The Tesla Life, we attempt to estimate Tesla's global production for the upcoming year. Last year, my estimate for 2023 was 1.93 million. The actual production was 1,845,985, or 1.85 mil. So I was only off by 4%. Of the three hosts/panelists on the show, I was the closest. However, one former panelist, Russel, guessed 1.88 mil and edged me out by 50,000 vehicles. He was only off by 1.5% (impressive). 

I want to beat him (and the other panelists again) this year. So I'm going to crunch the numbers in many ways and come out with a guess at the end of the post.

Contest Rules 

We have to publicly share our guess on January 17th which we generally do live on the show. The guess cannot be a range, you only get one guess (no bull number, bear number; no plus or minus 5%...). You can be as specific as you want (e.g., 2,345,678 vehicles) or round it. Rounded values will be expanded with zeros as needed, so a guess of 2 million is considered 2,000,000. You can use any tools you want to generate the estimate, if you want to ask ChatGPT or Grok, go for it. And the most painful part of all, you don't get to update your guess, no matter what news comes out, no matter what Musk says in the earnings calls; no changes.


You can see Tesla's quarterly production data back to Q4 2020 is charted in the graph above. One of the ways I've generated estimates is to simply use the trendline feature in Google Sheets. I plotted the trend as Linear, Exponential, and Polynomial and then added up the quarterly results. This gave me results from 2.22 to 2.39 million for 2024.

The next method I used was to look at the quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) growth. From Q4'20, this has been an average of 10%. Extending this into 2024, resulted in 2.03 mil units for 2024. Our lowest result yet. 

Rather than comparing this quarter to last quarter, a quarter is often compared to the same quarter in the previous year; this is called year-over-year (YoY). Looking back further in time, it's not surprising to see a larger growth value average of 47%. Using this YoY value gave an estimate of 2.71 mil (our highest yet). 

If we look at year-over-year, then we have to look at year-on-year (YOY). 2023 was 35% higher than '22. 35% growth would be 2.49 million. However, 2022 was 47% over '21. The average of these two YOY values is 41%. Using this YOY value gives a value of 2.60 mil. 

Next on our list, we'll look at the great work by James Stephenson on X. As you can see in the log scale chart above, James has chosen 2020 as his anchor year and established a 50% sales growth rate. Our estimation game is about Production, not Sales; so let's make a few tweaks to his model and then extend it into 2024. Doing this yields an estimate of 2.58 million; very close to the YOY result.

Looking Forward

All the estimates that we've made so far are based on looking at historic data and various ways to extrapolate that into the future. Now let's flip that around and see if there are big factors that will impact 2024. We briefly touched on interest rates in the opening. This will impact sales more than production, but there is some connection. If inventories get too high, production lines are taken down for upgrades, parts are not expedited... 

There are expansions of multiple Gigafactories planned or underway in 2024. Berlin and Austin have both been operating long enough to be fully staffed and ramped up to high-volume production. This was not the case in early 2023. Giga Mexico, Giga India or any other new location will not be a factor for 2024's production volume. 

As I'm writing this, news reports are coming out that Giga Berlin will stop most output for two weeks due to Red Sea disruption. Tesla has dealt with supply chain problems in the past, so I don't think this will be too big of a factor. Giga Shanghai is the most important factory for out put considerations. 


When Tesla's Robotaxi platform comes to market, you can expect a significant increase in production volume. This vehicle will have the fastest raw materials to final vehicle time of any mass production vehicle. With the bulk of the vehicle from a single casting and most of the interior being inserted with the structural battery pack and no paint, these vehicles will be popping out of the factory truckloads at a time. However, I don't expect to see this car until 2025 at the earliest. 

Estimate Summary 

 2024 Tesla Vehicle Production Estimates 
Linear 2,270,000
Exponential 2,390,000
Poly 2,215,000
QoQ 2,028,427 (Lowest)
YoY 2,714,490 (Highest)
YOY23 2,488,050
YOYAve 2,602,700
JS Method 2,580,544
Average 2,410,901

So I've generated 8 estimates and a mean value of those 8 as a 9th estimate. So which one should I use? Or should I go with something else? There's the joke 2,420,069 if you want to throw some Musk humor into the mix (this isn't that far from our average) or even the press the 2 key and run your finger to the right for 2,345,678. Both of which are within the range of estimates that we've generated.

In the past two years, I've been a little optimistic. Since I was over by 4% last time, let's take that average and reduce it by about 4% for something like 2,314,159. 

Leave your estimate in the comments below.

Sunday, January 14, 2024

Power Outages & VPP Events

Portland General Electric Power Outage Map Jan 13th 2024

It's been a busy couple of days for our Powerwalls.

Virtual Power Plant 

On Friday, January 12th our electric utility, Portland General Electric, held a VPP event. The event was held from 5PM until nearly 8PM. During the event, we exported a total of 21.6 kWh. This is the first event where we were able to participate at the full 9kW rate available in this program. Previously we were only at the default 3kW export rate.

The we were paid $36.72 for the energy we sent to the grid. This is not a huge amount, but we buy the bulk of our electricity during off-peak times for 5.160 ¢ per kWh and when they have an event like this, we sell energy to the utility for $1.70 per kWh. That's a 3,200% gross margin.

Power Outage

As you can see in the outage map above, over 135 thousand people in my region are currently without power in their home. We've seen snow, sleet, freezing rain, high winds, and falling trees across the area. The winter storm was the result of warm moisture air from the Pacific running into an arctic blast.

Our Powerwalls went into StormWatch mode early on Saturday morning. The power outages started in the early afternoon. So far, we've been lucky and our grid connection continues to operate. The batteries are full and on standby in case that changes. 


It's interesting that these events occurred on back to back days. They both require home batteries but they are very different. In the first case, we're supplying energy to the grid to help keep it stable and operational. While in the second case, we're keeping the battery full in order to support our home if/when the grid goes down.

Sunday, January 7, 2024

Tesla 2024 :: What To Expect From Tesla This Year

Following Tesla is never boring. 2024 is just starting and there is already writing on the wall that ensures that this year will be no different. The refreshed Model 3 will be coming to the US. The Model Y (the best-selling car in the world) will be refreshed. More Cybertrucks will hit the streets. The semi will move beyond its beta with Pepsi and much more.

Highlander Comes to US

Tesla refreshed the Model 3 last year. This new version of Model 3 was codenamed "Project Highland." Highland offers significant chassis and suspension upgrades; improved build quality; reduced noise, vibration, and harshness (NVH); added range; and colorful LED ambient lighting. The long-range highland boasts an impressive range of up to 353 miles.

Currently, this variant of the Model 3 is available in China and Europe today. In 2024, expect to see this vehicle rolling off the lines in Fremont.

Model Y Update :: Project Juniper 

Similar to the Model 3 update, Model Y will also be getting revamped. The question is, "What portions of this update will be just to catch up with Highlander, and which will be leapfrog concepts?"

The catch-up items: suspension upgrades (changes to the suspension geometry, suspension bushings, and rear subframe mount), minor chassis aero improvements (adding more range), stalkless, ambient lighting. These items are expected in Juniper. 

To be a true Tesla project, more than just just catching up is required. Tesla does not play the innovation game lightly. They make bold moves. Model Y is their best-selling vehicle, but that won't hold them back. Innovation is Tesla's lifeblood. Will they integrate some of the Cybertruck advancements into Model Y? If so, Juniper could have a 48 Volt architecture, steer-by-wire, a power frunk, and/or "Etherloop." The latter seems the most likely.


Call it the $25,000 Tesla, Model 2, Robotaxi platform, or (my preference) Model Next; we will be hearing about this vehicle in 2024. In a late 2023 interview with Sandy Munro, Elon Musk said the design was nearly complete. 

This vehicle will be a game changer for Tesla and the entire auto industry. If we're lucky, Tesla will hold an unveiling event in September of 2024, with deliveries starting in Q1 of 2025. Given that Tesla is currently working on increasing Cybertruck production rate, this is an aggressive prediction but a possibility. Either way, we'll see leaks about this vehicle throughout 2024. 

Here are some of the features we may hear about: entire chassis single casting, steer-by-wire, brake-by-wire, brake-by-motor.

NACS - J3400

Tesla has won the charging wars in North America. CHAdeMO and CCS will fade into history as the Betamax and laserdisc of EV charging. This year we'll see Tesla roll out support for various legacy automakers to start using their Magic Dock Supercharger stations and we'll see adapters coming from these same legacy automakers that allow their CCS vehicles to use the native NACS stations as well as Tesla destination stations. 

The other exciting NACS news to expect in 2024 is the official adoption of NACS (aka SAE J3400) as the official charging standard of the US. The US government still needs to update the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure (NEVI) recommendations to acknowledge NACS. When they do, this will mean for a new EV charging station installation to qualify for Federal infrastructure incentives, most of the handles must be NACS.


Our first peek at Roadster was so long ago (December of 2017). Tesla has really been dragging their feet on this one. The justification for the slow roll is that the Roadster is "dessert" and that other projects (Semi, Cybertruck, Highland...) are more important to Tesla's mission than a new sports car. 

So what will 2024 hold for the Roadster? I going to assume, not much. Tesla's 2024 focus will be on increasing Cybertruck production, 4680 volume, Highlander production in the US, and bringing Juniper to market. So sorry Roadster, you might have to wait another year.

If you're a Roadster reservation holder, I hope I'm wrong, but I don't see anything that elevates the Roadster's importance in 2024. It would be cool to see a demo of it hovering via the compressed air COPV tank. 

50s Diner - Rock-n-Charge

We've been hearing about this Tesla diner for some time now. Tesla is creating a place where you can pull in, plug in, and have food delivered to your car while you're charging up. The property has been purchased, permits have been issued, and construction has started. 

I would not be surprised if Tesla integrated ordering into the center screen and/or the Tesla app. With any luck, we'll see a ribbon-cutting slash grand opening in 2024.

Full Self-Driving (FSD) v12 

Version 12 of FSD went out to employees in late 2023 and should be released to other Tesla owners in early 2024. V12 is special, it is the first version to have end-to-end neural nets. V12 has no human-written code included. The inference engine will conduct object recognition, path planning, and vehicle control. 

With any new architecture change like this, there is an initial step backward in performance. This is the stacked sigmoid method that Jim Keller is known for articulating. The new system has the potential for better results, but you cannot start there. Instead, the new architecture starts at the low end of its performance and iterates from there until it has reached the saturation point (asymptotic or point of diminishing returns), and only then do the limitations of the architecture become apparent. Only then (once the limitations are known) can you design the next system to overcome these limitations. Said another way, you must climb the current hill before you can have a view of your next challenge.

In retrospect, end-to-end neural networks is the obvious answer. If human-written code could have solved the autonomy problem, the DARPA Autonomous Vehicle Challenge would have been claimed soon after it started in 2004. Over the 7 years that Tesla has been working on autonomy, the neural nets have been absorbing more and more of the work, now with v12 things have come to the ultimate conclusion; the neural nets now own all of problem-space from photons into the cameras to driving controls out.

Human-written software can't foresee and explicitly code for every situation or edge case that can happen in the real world. The fuzzy logic of AI systems allows for these unforeseen cases to be covered if the training data has enough similar situations for a general guideline to emerge.

Three years ago, here in this blog, we predicted that Tesla would not have true eyes-off-the-road autonomy until at least 2027. I'll be happy to see it arrive sooner, but I would not bet on it. Although, end-to-end neural nets with an occupancy network seems like the right solution. So once v12 enters the linear phase of its evolution (see image above) this year, we will see a rapid improvement in FSD performance. 

FSD in tunnels

So what can we expect to see for FSD in 2024? One of the things I'd like to see is autonomy in the vehicles in the Boring Company Loop Tunnels. This is a controlled environment. There's no cross traffic, no drunk or distracted drivers. This is the perfect place for the initial version of Tesla driverless vehicles.

Price Volatility 

In response to interest rates and other factors, Tesla's vehicle prices were volatile in 2023. You can expect more of the same in 2024. Hopefully, this time due to falling interest rates rather than increasing rates. 

In the US, the federal EV incentive has several changes in 2024. The good part of the changes is that the incentive is applied at the point of purchase. This makes the financing much easier. The bad part of the changes is that fewer EVs will qualify for the complete $7500 incentive. 

If you're EV shopping in the US in 2024, you should check the tax incentive rules and vehicles that qualify here.

Production Volumes

2024 will be the year that Tesla produces more than 2 million EVs in a single year. Tesla is yet to release 2024 production guidance. However, given that they produced about 1.8 million vehicles in 2023 and their growth rate, they should produce at least 2.2 million vehicles in 2024. A more detailed estimate will be published soon after Tesla releases their final data.

Cybertruck ramp estimate by Hyperchange YouTube channel

Cybertruck Production Ramp

The above is a bullish estimate from Gallilo Russel. With 2 million reservations, this fast ramp-up is vital to fulfill these and the new reservations that are coming in everyday. As each Cybertruck rolls out onto the streets, it is a rolling billboard for the distinctive profiled vehicle.

Given the many challenges that Tesla faces in producing a vehicle with so many never-been-done-before features, the first year of production is likely to be slow-going, starting with just hundreds per week and ending the year with a run rate of thousands per week. Galli and I agree that production will get to a half million per year, just not how fast it will get there. 

For my 2024, Cybertruck production, I estimate 25,000 to 35,000. However, on NYE 2024, I'll be happy if Galli's estimate is more accurate than mine.

Austin Nature Park Opens to Public 

The Giga Texas production site is enormous (8.5 km^2 or 2,100 acres). One of the things that is planned to be added to this space is a is a nature park that's open to the public. Plans have been submitted to the county and this area could open in 2024.

Knowing Elon's love of all things Monty Python, I expect to see a section of path dedicated to The Ministry of Silly Walks☺

Powerwall 4 - Ironman 

Powerwall 2 Plus and Powerwall 3 came out in 2023. These were nice advancements, but they used the same battery as the Powerwall 2. In 2024, I expect to see a LFP based Powerwall from Tesla. LFP batteries are more tolerant to temperature extremes. The drawback is that they're not as energy dense. So we may see the new LFP Powerwalls coming in at 10kWh instead of the 13.5kWh of the current NMC Powerwalls.   

Optimus Hackus 

In 2023, we saw Optimus sorting blocks, handling eggs, and doing yoga. In 2024, you can expect to see big advancements. Tesla will deploy an Optimus or two in Giga Texas to conduct a simple task and gather real world data. 

Tesla Lithium Refinery

Tesla broke ground on their lithium refinery in Corpus Christi, TX in May of 2023. This year we should see the first results of its operation. The goal of the 1200+ acre site is to reinvent lithium refining and increase the supply of battery-grade lithium hydroxide.

Tesla aims to deploy the first industrial-scale. acid-free lithium refinery. Their process eliminates the use of hazardous reagents and byproducts in favor of inert options. The byproduct from this facility, a mixture of sand and limestone, is useful in the production of construction materials, making beneficial use of traditional waste streams.

This site is also intended to eventually be a battery recycling plant.

Wrapping It Up

A global charging network opening to other vehicles, self driving cars, robots walking around, stainless steel trucks... 2024 is starting to look like the twenty first century, instead of just the 26th iteration of 1999. Even the retro 1950s diner will have the modern twist of EV charging and ordering via apps. 

I am long Tesla

Saturday, December 30, 2023

Tesla's 2023 Year in Review

Tesla Vehicle Line-up 2023

2023 was the year that Tesla turned 20; it was also the Year of the Tesla Truck (both Cyber and Semi). The first Cybertruck deliveries were kicked off in November and the Semi (officially launched in December of 2022) was put through its paces in 2023 as Pepsi-Fritos loaded them up and put the pedal to the metal.

Trucks were not the only Tesla vehicle news for the year though. Model 3 had its most extensive revamp ever with "Project Highland". Tesla partnered with tribes to dance around arcane state protectionist laws, an old Tesla founder returns as a new board member, and more. Let's look at each of these 2023 events:  

Cybertruck Launch 

Cybertruck was the biggest Tesla event of 2023 and we'll dive right into this one first. On November 30th, Tesla held the Cybertruck Launch event. The first owners took delivery of their vehicles on stage in Austin with crowds of onlookers in-person and online. 

Throughout 2023, the Cybertruck made news over and over. A glimpse of the frunk, the interior, exterior updates, the new user interface... Videos of four-wheel steering and crab walking, news.

The "No Flipping" clause in the Cybertruck purchase contract threatened to penalize violators $50,000 or more and never sell them another Tesla for the rest of their lives. This clause had the internet in a tizzy and customer backlash caused Tesla to remove it. However, it came back once again for the Foundation series Cybertrucks. 


Inspired by the paintless Cybertruck, Tesla started offering wraps and paint protection films. Black, white, or clear wraps are available for Cybertruck and six colors for the rest of the vehicle lineup. 

Tesla has some fun with Cybertruck wraps in 2023. They dressed one up as a Ford F-150 and another as a Toyota Tundra.

Cybertruck variants at launch

At the delivery event, final pricing, availability, and product details were announced. Three models were announced: single-motor RWD, dual-motor AWD, and a tri-motor AWD called the "Cyberbeast." Soon after the event a fourth variant was announced, the Foundation Series. This is a limited edition Cyberbeast that comes at a $20,000 premium and adds FSD and the special laser etchings seen above.

Compared to the 2019 unveiling of the Cybertruck many reservation holders were disappointed by the price increase compared to the more affordable $39,000. 

Range extender 

The range extender is an optional battery pack that increases the Cybertruck's range by 120–130 miles, taking the dual motor AWD range up to an estimated 470 miles. The range extender looks like a toolbox taking up about a third of the bed space. If you plan on towing any significant distance, this is something that you should consider. The exciting part of this is the possibility of range extenders being integrated into future accessories (trailers, campers...). 

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The ramp starts

As I write this, Cybertrucks are being delivered in California and Texas. There are about 2 million people that put down a $100 reservation. Many of them are eagerly awaiting there chance to configure and order. Currently, Tesla is making fewer than 100 trucks per week. Next year this production rate will grow and grow as manufacturing processes are improved and sped up.

48 Volts and Ethernet "Etherloop"

Before we leave this topic, we have to cover these two industry-changing Cybertruck innovations. 

Cars and trucks have been using 12 Volt batteries since the mid-1950s. The switch to 12 Volts (from 6V) was due to the evolution of car designs and features that required more power.

Today, we have more electrical demands on our vehicles than ever before. Automakers have occasionally released 48V prototypes, but they have never been able to bring the 48V architecture to market. Bringing a new architecture to market is not easy.

For 48V to work properly, all the accessories have to be designed for it. Every wiper motor, seat motor, light, computer, ABS, air bag controller... There are hundreds of components, made by hundreds of suppliers that have to be redesigned, tested, certified... 

Tesla was willing to do the hard work needed to bring 48V to market. They worked with their suppliers. When a part needed to be redesigned, Tesla would send engineers to work with the suppliers. It's a win-win. The supplier gets Tesla engineering to help update their product and Tesla gets a design that they know will meet their needs. 

If Tesla cannot find a supplier for a part that they need, they will bring the task in-house. They are not afraid of vertical integration

Now with all of the parts that they need working with 48V, how do you get that power to each of the components. In the Cybertruck there are 386 parts that need to be connected to aux power. The answer was to redesign the communications network in the vehicle and use those same connections for both communications and power delivery. Enter Ethernet. 

Today, vehicles typically use Controller Area Network (CAN) bus. The maximum data rate of CAN bus is typically 1 Megabit per second (Mbps). Tesla chose to replace the CAN bus with a 1 Gigabit Ethernet network. That's 1000 times faster than the CAN bus. And this same Ethernet network can deliver the needed 48V with a feature called Power-Over-Ethernet (POE). This reduces the number of wires that have to go to each of the 386 electronic components in Cybertruck. It also means the telemetry for all of the components can be delivered faster. 

Tesla refers to this as an Etherloop because they wire the Ethernet switches together in a loop with redundant bidirectional connections for fault tolerance. These higher voltage and faster data rates will be the new industry standard. Automakers have wanted both of these features for over a decade, but they had no leadership that could make it happen. Now that Tesla has cracked the code, others will be fast followers. 

Wrapping up Cybertruck 

This only scratches the surface of the Cybertruck (not an easy task). I'm sure there will be plenty more to discuss about the Cybertruck in 2024. 


In September, the North American Council for Freight Efficiency (NACFE) conducted a study as part of their "Run on Less" program. This program tests electric semi trucks in real-world conditions with all results released in real time. A Tesla Semi truck traveled over 1,000 miles in a single day during these tests. This is something that many experts called impossible.

Jay Leno took the Semi out for a spin with Tesla's Senior Manager of Semi-Truck Engineering, Dan Priestley. Priestley explained how Tesla has iterated the semi over the last year. How they've collected data, talked to drivers, and used all of this feedback to make improvements to both the hardware and software in the semi.  

In October of 2023, Tesla began hiring to increase Semi production. 

Model 3 Highland

The Model 3 was introduced in 2017. With its sleek design, excellent performance, and more affordable price (compared to Model S and X), it quickly became the best selling EV in history. That title was soon overtaken by the younger sibling (Model Y), but more on that later. In 2023, Tesla offered a new version of Model 3 that added range and upgraded interior. This new version of Model 3 was codenamed "Project Highland." 

Highland offers significant chassis and suspension upgrades. The long range highland boasts an impressive range of up to 353 miles. The minimalist interior design, characterized by clean lines and the absence of traditional buttons and knobs persists and colorful LED ambient lighting is added.

Highland is shipping in China and Europe and is expected to launch in the North American market in early 2024. 

Model Y - Best Selling Car In The World

In 2023, the Model Y became the first all-electric vehicle to wear the crown of the world's best-selling car. As of July 2023, the Model Y edged out the Toyota Corolla for the top spot in new car sales worldwide.

5 Million EVs Produced

Speaking of production and sales, in September of 2023, Tesla announced that they had produced their 5 millionth EV. That's 5 million vehicles without tailpipes. 5 million cars that won't pollute as they wait in line at the after school pick up. 5 million cars that won't support the fossil fuel, drill and burn ecosystem.

50 Thousand NACS of Power- J3400

Tesla installed their 50 thousandth Supercharger in September of 2023. This network allows drivers to take their EVs on road trips. The Tesla network is by far the most complete and reliable charging network out there. 

Ford, GM, and others figured out that they could not compete with the Tesla network and their best course of action was to abandon the failing CCS standard and join the Tesla network. As you can see in the image above Honda, Kia, Jaguar, BMW, and others quickly followed. Stellantis and Mazda are among the few hold outs, but by 2025, if you want to sell an EV in North America, it better have a NACS connector, or it will be be considered by most EV shoppers.  

The automotive standards body known as SAE ratified NACS as J3400. This will make NACS stations eligible for National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure (NEVI) incentives.

Tribal Partnerships

Tribal lands are part of sovereign nations which exist within the borders of the U.S. Currently, 39 states include at least one tribal nation. As sovereign nations, tribal lands are not subject to state and local jurisdiction or restrictions.

Tesla has been partnering with tribal nations since 2021 to build showrooms, stores, or service centers on tribal lands. Some states have protectionist laws that require vehicles to be sold via a middleman (dealership) system. Tesla does not use dealerships. Instead, they sell direct to customers. Building on tribal lands allows Tesla sidestep these arcane laws. 

In 2023, Tesla opened two more locations on tribal lands. Tesla's tribal partnerships now include: 

  • First Nation of Nambé Pueblo in New Mexico at the Buffalo Thunder Resort & Casino
  • Santa Ana Pueblo: A partnership that builds on tribal land
  • Mohegan Tribe in Connecticut at the Mohegan Sun Casino and Entertainment Complex

Master Plan 3.0

In April of 2023 Tesla released their Master Plan 3.0, subtitled "Sustainable Energy for All of Earth."

This is an outline for moving to a world of abundant, pollution-free, energy. 


In September of 2022, the world got to see the first wobbly steps of Tesla's robot named Optimus. In 2023, Tesla made great strides (literally and figuratively) in the Optimus program. The perception system was demonstrated with the bot sorting blocks and picking up eggs. The walking speed is much faster and looks much more natural. 

JB's Return

JB Straubel is one of the founders of Tesla. He was the CTO until he left Tesla in 2019 to found and run a battery recycling company called Redwood Materials. In 2023, JB took a seat on Tesla's board of directors.


Tesla stock started the year at $108 per share and it is ending the year $248. That 230% growth for 2023. 

Powerwall 3

In September of 2023, Tesla launched Powerwall 3. The battery portion of Powerwall 3 is very similar to Powerwall 2; however, Powerwall 3 adds a fully integrated solar inverter. Whereas Powerwall 2 could only be AC connected, Powerwall 3 can be AC or DC connected; allowing Powerwall 3 to be more efficient in some configurations. If you are retrofitting batteries to an existing solar PV system, you'll want to use Powerwall 2s, but if you are installing a new solar and battery system, Powerwall 3 is the way to go since you won't have to buy a separate PV inverter.

Wrapping It Up 

Above, we covered that Tesla is now offering wraps, but it's time to wrap this up. As every year has been for Tesla, 2023 was an exciting one to follow. They have accomplished things that legacy car companies would have never attempted. They are the vanguard of the future of the auto industry. While other car companies are announcing that they are slowing their EV programs, Tesla relentlessly pushes forward. I have no doubt that 2024 will be equally as exciting.

I am long Tesla

Saturday, December 23, 2023

Tesla Model Y Snow Tire Range

2023 Tesla Model Y with Winter Tires

Winter is here and we've put snow tires on our new Model Y.  I was curious how this would impact our range, so I collected the data, crunched some numbers, and we'll look at the results. 

We recently installed a roof rack on our Model Y and we did a similar exercise. You can see the roof rack results here

Our vehicle: 2023 Tesla Model Y Dual Motor AWD
Options: 5-seater, 19" wheels

2023 Model Y Dual Motor AWD LR 5 Seater with 19" Wheels
Stock Tires & Wheels Winter Tires & Wheels
Tires Continental ProContact RX 255/24 R19 Michelin X-Ice Snow 255 /45 R19 104H XL BSW
Wheels 19’’ Gemini Vision VIS Cross II 73.10
Efficiency (miles/kWh) 4.2 3.4 (19% lower)
Efficiency (Wh/km) 147.6 183.3 (19% worse)

If you stop reading here, you might assume all of the efficiency decrease is due to the new tires. However, the pre-snow tire drives were in Sept. and early Oct. with temperatures in the mid-70s F (around 24C). The snow tire drives, on the other hand, were in late Oct. and Nov. with temperatures in the 30-50F (0-10C) range.

The colder temps reduce EV range in several small ways: 

  • The air is thicker and it takes more energy to move it aside
  • With the cold weather we turned on the cabin heater, seat heaters, and defroster 
  • Much like humans, battery packs have a temperatures range where they run best. So, in cold weather, battery conditioning turns on and uses energy.

Range Impacts 

Our vehicle was EPA rated with 330 miles of range.  The colder weather and winter tires reduce this ideal range by 19% bringing it down to 266 miles. 

This is one of the reasons that we purchased a long range EV. The EPA rated ranges are in ideal conditions, real life is often far from ideal. I want to make sure we still have range enough to make traveling easy even if we're traveling over mountains, in winter, with luggage on the roof rack... 

Use my referral code for any perks Tesla may be offering https://ts.la/patrick7819
I am long Tesla

Sunday, December 10, 2023

2024 is kNACkered For EVs Not Named Tesla

Jaguar (among others) will be using the
Tesla charging network in 2025

2024 is on course to be a lame-duck year for EV sales in North America for any automaker not named Tesla. Nearly every automaker (see list below) has pledged to support the Tesla-initiated charging standard now known as NACS or the North American Charging Standard for their EVs. The announcements from the automakers were largely made in late 2023; however, the charging port changeover doesn't happen until 2025 model-year vehicles. So in 2024, these automakers will offer-for-sale EVs with a charging port in its last year before being phased out. 

That charging port that is not long for this world is the CCS port. CSS has a patchwork of charging stations in various states of disrepair. JD Power has consistently ranked the CCS charging stations poorly.

Legacy automakers didn't have to build or support gas stations for their gas cars. They assumed the same would be true with EVs. However, the poor maintenance at CCS stations has hurt the EV ownership experience for their customers. EVs need a dependable charging network. This is a significant factor in owner satisfaction. If you have a car, you want to be able to drive it places. Occasionally, that means you might have to charge up someplace other than at home. This requires a robust "refueling" network. CCS was not that network.   

This drove automakers to leave CCS for greener pastures. More on this below in the 'Why CCS Failed' section. Reluctantly, automakers are embracing the solution from the upstart Tesla to gain access to the vast reliable charging network that Tesla has created.

Who is Joining NACS

Companies Joining NACS: 
• 2023.05.26 : Ford (Lincoln)
• 2023.06.09 : GM (Chevy, Cadillac, GMC)
• 2023.06.20 : Rivian
• 2023.06.22 : FLO (Charging Network)
• 2023.06.27 : Volvo
• 2023.06.27 : ChargePoint (Charging Network)
• 2023.06.28 : Blink (Charging Network)
• 2023.06.29 : Polestar
• 2023.06.29 : Electrify America (Charging Network)
• 2023.07.07 : Daimler (Smart, Mercedes-Benz) 
• 2023.07.10 : Lotus
• 2023.07.19 : Nissan (Infiniti)
• 2023.08.18 : Honda (Acura) 
• 2023.09.22 : JLR (Jaguar, Land Rover, a division of Tata Motors)  
• 2023.10.05 : Hyundai (Genesis, Kia)
• 2023.10.17 : BMW, Mini, Rolls-Royce
• 2023.10.20 : Toyota (Lexus)
• 2023.10.23 : BP Pulse (Charging Network)
• 2023.11.01 : Subaru
• 2023.11.06 : Lucid
Volkswagen, Stellantis, Suzuki, Mitsubishi, and Mazda still have not announced NACS support, but it's clear if you want to sell EVs in N. America after 2025, the NACS connector will be the standard. By the time you are reading this, many (all?) of these legacy holdouts may have already announced support.

Many EV buyers may be reluctant to buy the final year of a car with a charging port that will require them to use adapters for nearly every charging event (more on this coming up).

Why'd CCS Fail?

The largest CCS network in North America is the combination of Electrify America and Electrify Canada. These networks were created as part of the $2B+ Diesel-gate scandal settlement.

For a charging network, reliability is vital! When you pull up to a charging location, you expect to be able to, well, charge up. Sadly, far too often, at Electrify America stations this was not possible. Stations would be down for repair or blocked. This often meant that the few spots that were not blocked and operational had a long line of cars waiting to drink in the lepton juice. 

JD Power has repeatedly ranked Electrify America as poor for reliability. It's almost like forcing a business into existence via mandates and fines is not the best way to create a company filled with people passionate about their mission. A headline from The Verge says it well for the state of charging in the US in 2023, "EV charging in the US is still a no good, very bad time — and somehow it’s getting worse." If that was not enough, here's another, "Car Companies Are Beyond Fed Up With Electrify America: Report."

Surprisingly, customers occasionally want to drive their EV more than half a charge away from their home charging station. Drivers of CCS-equipped vehicles are fed up with the unreliable infrastructure and they are letting the automakers hear this loud and clear. 

Both Ford CEO Jim Farley and US Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm both attempted road trips in 2023 using CCS vehicles and found the infrastructure deficient.

Tesla owners charge about 3 times more often at Superchargers than owners of other EVs charge at CCS fast chargers. This is because Tesla drivers know that the Supercharger network is reliable. They will be able to charge up and continue the drive without major hassles.  

Vehicle makers that have joined the NACS coalition

Adapters & MagicDock

There will be adapters that allow CCS-equipped vehicles to charge up at NACS stations, so the CCS vehicles will not totally be left in the lurch. And there are the MagicDock Supercharger stations. MagicDock Superchargers have a built-in CCS adapter. If you just walk up and grab the handle, it will be the native NACS connector. However, if you login to the Tesla app (or an app that supports the Tesla app APIs), then you can request a CCS connector on a specific stall and the CCS adapter will lock onto the connector. Then when you pull the connector out, it will have CCS for your 2024 or prior year non-Tesla vehicle. 

While CCS cars will be able to charge, charging with an adapter or MagicDock is not as convenient as a native NACS experience. With NACS, you just grab the handle and plug it in. When the charge is complete, unplug and drive off. No app, no adapter, to membership card to deal with. Billing is handled automatically via Plug-n-charge. 

With CCS, you'll need an adapter. If you are using an adapter, the charging handle may not properly lock to the vehicle or the charging rate may be reduced. If you are using the MagicDock, then you'll have to use an app to tell the station that you want to charge with the CCS adapter. Then after the station is informed, only then will you be able to remove the charging cable with the CCS adapter locked on. Neither of these is as simple as the NACS experience. If you plan on keeping your car for years, that's years of dealing with apps and adapters for every on-the-road charging experience.    


When companies compete, there's reason to innovate. A company that can make or do something better, faster, cheaper... has an advantage. There are times, however, when cooperation between companies is better for the customer and the companies. There are times when standardization increases the available market and allows companies to show their strengths in other ways. 

When this is the case, standards to the rescue. With all the automakers adopting NACS, they will all have the same robust charging network. This means that EV makers will have to compete in other ways, such as range, performance, price...

One Port To Rule Them All

There are no separate gas stations for Fords or Toyotas. If you drive a gas-powered car, you just go to the gas station (nearly any gas station) and fill up. The only consideration of concern is Diesel or gasoline. This is not that hard and with rare exceptions, people can successfully fill up every day.

Charging an EV is not that simple yet. With an EV, there are different networks. Some are AC, some are DC, some take credit cards, some require membership and have apps or membership cards; some have QR codes to scan. And there's another layer of complexity, the charging ports. You have to know if your car has just AC charging or if it also has DC fast charging and if so, which kind of port(s). In the US, there's J1772, CHAdeMO, CCS, and Tesla (now called NACS). You're out of luck if you pull up to the wrong type when you need to charge. Well, unless you have an adapter that allows you to convert the charging station connector to the type that your car needs. And when you use these adapters, you are often greatly restricted in the top charging rate.

For EV to go mainstream, this needs to be simple. Multiple network memberships, multiple connector types, adapters... this is all far too complicated. Most of the time an EV is just charging in its own garage, and this doesn't matter. However, when you go on a road trip, on-the-road EV charging is anything but simple (unless you have a Tesla, more on that later).

We need one continent-wide, universal connector, with payment simplicity and plug-in simplicity (without adapters). One plug, any place, AC or DC, that just works. For EVs to become ubiquitous, charging has to be easy. You should not have to know multiple standards, voltages, amperages... It has to be simple, plug in, charge up, drive off. When there are multiple competing standards like we have today, there's a layer of complexity that creates an obstacle to mass EV adoption. 

There are times when proprietary solutions are the right way to go. This can allow innovation and differentiation. There are other times when standardization benefits the manufacturers with commodity parts with higher volumes and lower prices. Standards make it more convenient for owners too. If there's one charging standard, then you won't have to know if you have a CHAdeMO, CCS, J1772, or NACS port on your car or which connectors are at the charging location that you plan on stopping at on your road trip.

This move by all automakers to adopt NACS removes a layer of complexity. Now, automakers will compete on other features like range, performance, price...

While I think this is the right direction, I wonder if automakers have Osborned themselves by announcing that they will have something cool in 2025, but then expecting people to buy their 2024 vehicles.

2024 Has Other Headwinds Too

Other Headwinds: Interest Rates

Most people buy cars with financing. They take out a car loan and make monthly payments. Other things being equal, the higher the interest rate, the higher the monthly payment. Car loan rates are about 8% for new cars and even higher for used vehicles. They have not been this high since the Great Recession in 2009.

Most people would rather spend their money buying a car that they like rather than paying interest. So some buyers are likely to sit on the sidelines, keep driving the car they currently have, and wait to see if 2025 has better rates.

Let's compare buying a $50,000 vehicle with a $10,000 down-payment (or trade-in) with $2,400 in title registration and other fees rolled into the loan at today's rates versus last year's. 

1.2% Loan Interest Rate
Down-payment: $10,000
Loan Amount: $42,400
60 Month Loan
Monthly Payment: $728
Total Cost: $53,706

8.1% Loan Interest Rate
Down-payment: $10,000
Loan Amount: $42,400
72 Month Loan
Monthly Payment: $745
Total Cost: $63,675

There are a few things to unpack here. The first thing to note is that, if you're taking out a loan, overall you'll pay about $10,000 more in today's environment.  

The second thing to note is that the second loan is 72 months rather than 60 months. That's because most people are concerned with the monthly payment more than anything else. To make the payments similar for these two loans, the term of the second one had to be extended. 

Other Headwinds: Falling EV Prices

Falling EV prices seems like it would be a sales accelerator. In the long term, it will be; however, if the prices are dropping and they look like they might keep dropping, there's a temptation to wait and see how low they may go. 

Multiple battery factories are being built. Batteries are by far the single highest cost of EVs today. As these factories come online in 2024, battery prices will drop and EV prices will follow.

Falling prices of critical minerals will lead to a 40% drop in the cost of batteries for electric vehicles by 2025, with big implications for the pace of global EV adoption, says Goldman Sachs Research. So if you can wait, you'll likely get a better deal in 2025.

Wrapping Up

The current CCS charging network in North America is not good. The only network that is robust and reliable is the Tesla Supercharger (NACS) network. Automakers are giving up on CCS and moving to NACS as fast as possible, which is 2025 model-year vehicles.

This means that 2024 will be the final year of CCS cars. CCS is now officially the Betamax of charging standards and 2024 will be its final year of sales. CCS is a dead-end technology.

Will EV shoppers buy the final model year of a standard that's fading away? Or will they save their pennies for another year and see what 2025 brings? With high interest rates and falling prices in 2024, it is tempting for buyers to sit on the sidelines and hold out for 2025 where they may get a better vehicle at a lower price with better financing and a native NACS port.

You can call 2024 a transition year, a lame duck year, or an Osborne year. If buyers sit on the sidelines, non-Tesla EV sales in North America 2024 is kNACkered.


There are plenty of EV drivers that disagree with this assessment. They argue that the NACS changeover is not that big of a deal. Comparing CCS to Betamax is hyperbole since there will be adapters (unlike Betamax video tapes) and there's MagicDock meaning that more and more Tesla locations will be able to charge CCS vehicles after just a tap or two in an app. Plus the existing CCS network (as bad as it may be) is not going away and it will be better supported as more EVs hit the road and start using the network in 2024.

Similarly, the point about interest rate impacts is overplayed. Interest rates will hurt all auto sales, not just EVs. So the growth of EVs as a percentage of new auto sales will increase in 2024, even if the volume of sales is down or flat compared to 2023.

disclosure: I'm long TSLA and several other EV stocks