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Tuesday, January 14, 2025

Tesla 2025 Production Estimates

As regular readers know, panelists of The Tesla Life estimate the number of vehicles that Tesla will produce each year. All of our 2024 estimates were optimistic.

Several factors reduced Tesla's sales and production in the first half of 2024. Will 2025 be a 20 - 30% growth year (as Musk stated in the Oct '24 earnings call) or a roughly flat year. Significant growth rate will be on hold until a new lower-cost model (Redwood) is in high-volume production. So, the 50% growth that we've seen in other years, is off the table for 2025. Even if a new model is introduced this year, it's unlikely production can ramp to high volume this year.

2024 had a production volume of 1,773,443 vehicles. Applying the center of the guidance (25% growth) would result in 2,216,804 vehicles.

Given all of this, I have generated estimates via several trend analysis methods:

Method   Estimate    
Linear2,012,000
Exponential 2,080,000
Poly41,712,000
QoQ1,903,550
QoY1,924,723
YoY1,723,789
Ave of Above 1,892,677

That's six estimates ranging from 1.7 million to 2.08 million. None of these estimates reach the 2.2M guidance level. If Redwood comes out in the first half of the year, is a hit, and ramps quickly then these estimates may be shooting under the mark.

The Tesla Life estimation rule is that you can only submit one guess. You cannot submit a range or condition (e.g., my guess is X, but if interest rates drop it's X+20%).

Which guestimate should I go with? Given that for the last two years, I've really been looking forward to Tesla hitting the 2 million mark and my estimates have been overly optimistic, I'm inclined to select a number that's less than 2M. Then I'm in a win-win situation; if they do produce 2M+, I'll be happy they achieved that milestone and if they don't hit 2M, then perhaps my guess will be the winning one in The Tesla Life's game.

If you want to submit your guess to the game, tweet it at @TheTeslaLife before January 29th, 2025.

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