Tesla: What to Expect in 2019

What does Tesla have in store for us in 2019? We had a list of things to expect for 2018, here are a few from the list that they delivered:

• Ramping Model 3 production to 5,000+ per week
• Dual motor Model 3 deliveries
• Sneak peeks of the Roadster 2020 and Semi as they start road testing
• New Tesla mobile app with several new features
• Performance Model 3 deliveries
• Navigation route following for AutoPilot
• Announcing locations and perhaps even breaking ground on one or two new Gigafactory locations (They delivered on one of these in Shanghai, China)
• Delivering their 200,000 US vehicle in July of 2018 triggering the countdown to the start of the tax credit phase-out (They delivered in July, just as we forecasted) 

Tesla delivered the above and more such as when they surprised everyone with the introduction of the Model 3 Mid-Range in 2018.

There were also a few things on our list for last year that they did not deliver:

• Standard range Model 3 ($35k variant) deliveries 
• Coast to coast autonomous drive demo
• Solar roof tile high volume deliveries
• Megacharger (for Semi) deployments
• Stop sign \ Traffic light recognition
• HUD option for Model 3

Should we expect to see any of these leftovers in 2019? I think most of these are have a good chance of occurring this year. The HUD seems to be off the table since we have not heard any mention of it recently. 

What can we add to the list for this year? For this, I'll also borrow from last year's long-range view of ideas:

• Reveal event for Model Y (where the Tesla pickup might be the surprise "one more thing")
• Model S and X interior redesign to bring it up to snuff with the Model 3 minimalist design 
• Model S and X moving to the 2170 cell architecture 
• If Model S and X move to 2170 cells, this could bring more range, faster 0-60, & faster charging 
• Improved voice commands that reduce the need to use the touchscreen for many settings
• First deliveries of the Tesla Semi (low volume/beta) 

For our 2018 list, these were listed as coming in 2019 or later. Will they happen in 2019? Tesla has to bring Model Y, Pickup, Semi, & Roadster to market, bring Giga 3 online, locate Giga 4, all while growing the Supercharger network. That is a lot on their plate. Redesigning the battery and interior of the Model S & X effectively makes them new vehicles. They may want to stick with the current 18650 and interior for one more year.

As a side note: When the Model S and X move to the 2170 cell, do you think they will move to the "Standard Range/Long Range" badging, or do you think they'll stay with the kWh nomenclature?

A few new things to add to the list that we may see in 2019: 

• When the standard range Model 3 is introduced, initially you'll only be able to order it with the premium interior and glass roof; this will keep the average selling price up and allow them to be sold profitably
• AutoPilot Hardware 3
• Model 3 leasing (This is one of Tesla's primary demand levers)
• Supercharger V3 (and we find out that under ideal conditions the Model 3 can charge faster than 120kW)  
• Another US price reduction in July 2019 as the tax credit halves again (perhaps $1000 this time)
• Model 3 orders/deliveries start in Europe and China
• European Gigafactory location announced / groundbreaking
• The mid-range Model 3 discontinued soon after the standard range is introduced (after all it is called the Lemar (LEMR) b/c it is a limited edition)

For completeness, I'll include a few things I don't expect to see from Tesla in 2019:

• Full self-driving
• TeslaTunes streaming music service
• Tesla Network ridesharing service

Following Tesla, there are always surprises. You never know when Elon Musk is going to launch a car into space, tweet about drilling tunnels, sell (not a) flamethrowers, or build a 50s style diner with food delivery via roller skates.

What surprises do you expect from Tesla in 2019?

http://ts.la/patrick7819

Driving A Tesla Model 3 To The Moon - 11 Years Of Solar Production

• If you could drive a Model 3 to the Moon, how much energy would it take?
• The Moon is ~238,900 miles away
• In a dual motor Model 3, it would take 69,281 kWh to drive that far
• We have generated 69,460 kWh from our solar PV systems
• A brief history of our EV ownership and PV installations

Eleven years after the PV on our rooftop came to life, it has generated 69,460 kWh of energy.

The graph shows that we have not one, but two PV systems on our roof. Our first system was installed in late 2007. This is a 4 kW array and it has produced 41,398 kWh. Our second array was added in 2015. It is an 8 kW array and has produced 28,062 kWh.

Why Solar?

In 2007, we purchased our first EV, a Chevy S10e electric truck. With the aged NiMH batteries, it only had 40 miles of range, but it was great. It was my commuter and errand runner. It was nice to have a truck for Home Depot runs. Our first PV system was installed later that year so we could power our EV with homemade electrons.

In 2011, we traded the truck in for a Nissan Leaf with nearly twice the range. Now even more of our miles were electrically powered and we started taking short road trips in the Leaf.

In 2015 we added more PV, tripling the capacity of our system.

In 2016 we traded our remaining gas car in for a long-range Tesla Model X. We were now a 100% EV household.  With 2 EVs in our household, we are no longer buying gasoline and all of our transportation is "fueled" from the grid and our solar panels.

In 2018 we traded the Leaf in for a long-range Tesla Model 3. We are now a 100% Tesla family.

We have switched to Time-Of-Use electricity schedule. The solar panels reduce our daytime use and we charge the cars overnight at off-peak times. The off-peak rate here is only 4¢ per kWh. Electricity was already a cheap fuel, this makes it even more affordable.

Enough Energy To Drive To The Moon

The energy our PV systems have generated is enough to power our Tesla Model 3 for ~240,000 miles. Based on the EPA rating, this is enough to drive around the equator nine and a half times or, if you prefer, the distance to the Moon. This is also more than 1 light-second (appropriately powered by light).

Tax Credit & The $35k Tesla Model 3

The New Year is here and with it, the tax credit for new Tesla vehicles drops by 50%, from $7500 to $3750. In July of 2018, Tesla sold their 200,000th EV in the US; that meant that the tax credit for Tesla's vehicles was set to begin its phase-out by dropping to $3750 on January 1st, 2019; then to $1875 on July 1st, 2019; and finally vanishing as we ring in 2020.

You will undoubtedly see headlines such as "All Tesla Cars Just Become $3,750 More Expensive", but that may not be completely true.

There are a couple bills that could extend the tax credit. One extends it for 3 years, while the other extends it for 10 years. There is even a 3rd bill related to the EV tax credit, but this third one seeks to eliminate the credit immediately. For this exercise, we'll assume that none of these bills pass, although we have our fingers crossed for the first two.

The EV Tax Credit & You

The incentive dropping might not be as bad as it seems at first. The way that the tax credit works, it can only offset your tax liability. The US tax credit is a non-refundable credit with no carry-forward provision. This means to take full advantage of the $7500 credit, you would have needed to have a tax liability of $7500 or more.

To clarify, your tax liability is not the tax bill you may have to pay when you file. Rather, this is the sum of all your federal withholdings throughout the year then adjusted by the payment or refund from tax time. I'll give a few simplified examples, but taxes are complicated, so consult your own tax professional as needed.

Half Tax Credit Amount Might Be Just Right

If you've been holding out for the more affordable $35k version of the Model 3, you might be disappointed if the tax credit is halved before you can pick up your car. The good news is that it might not matter. Remember the two points from above: One, you can only use the tax credit to offset your own tax liability (it is not just a payment to you); and two, there is no carry-forward to the next tax year.

There are plenty of people with large tax bills that prefer to buy affordable cars, but there are also plenty of people on the reservation list that are stretching their budget to buy their first Tesla. If you are doing "the Tesla Stretch" then this reduction in the tax incentive might not matter to you.

How Much Tax Credit Can You Use?
$7500 

You can find your gross tax liability on line 47 of Form 1040, on line 30 of Form 1040A, or on line 10 of Form 1040EZ. If your income is similar this year to last year's, then last year's taxes will give you a good idea. However, if you don't want to dig out your old taxes, let's run some back of the napkin numbers.

Let's see what income you would have needed to take full advantage of the $7500 tax credit. Before we start with the numbers, it is impossible to have a single answer to a tax question because everyone's situation is different and will be impacted by things like:

• Filing/marriage status 
• Mortgage interest
• 401(k) contributions
• State and Local Taxes You Paid
• Interest You Paid
• Gifts to Charity
• Medical Expenses
• Casualty and Theft Losses
• Personal Legal Bills
• Health Insurance Premiums
• Babysitter Payments While Volunteering
• Lifetime Learning Expenses 
• Self-employed Social Security

For this exercise, I'll assume Married Filing Jointly, using just the standard deduction, making some pre-tax 401(k) deposits (assuming you're using a traditional 401(k) and not a Roth 401(k)). If you're over 50 years old, you can put an additional $6,000 into your 401(k), but for this example, I'll assume you are under 50 or not opting for the $6k catch up. If this is not your situation, the exercise will show you how to construct your own.

For a household to have a $7500 in tax liability, you first need to have more income than the standard $24,400 deduction then there's the maxed out pre-tax 401(k), that's $19,000 for 2019. Then you enter the 10% bracket for the next $19,400. Next, you enter the 12% bracket. You'll need to earn another $46,330 in this bracket to hit the full $7500 in tax liability.

Adding this all up, to utilize the entire $7500 tax incentive, you'd need to have a household income of ~$109,000+. According to Bankrate, only 20% of US households have a $100,000+ income.

How Much Tax Credit Can You Use?
$3750

Using the same back of the napkin math for the half tax credit, you'd need to have a ~$78,000 household income to qualify for the full $3,750 tax credit. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the median household income is ~$60,000.  So for most US households, a $3750 tax credit is adequate to refund all of your tax liabilities. The average Tesla buyer is likely to be above the median income, but even if you are ~$20k above the median, the half tax credit is enough to wipe away most of your federal tax liability for 2019.

Conclusion: Tax Credit for the $35,000 Model 3

If you've been holding out for the $35k base model variant of the Model 3, but you're bummed that the tax credit is currently cut in half, the odds are that the half tax credit is nearly as useful. We just need to see the $35k Model 3 shipped in the first half of 2019.

http://ts.la/patrick7819

Two Years of Tesla Ownership

We've had our Tesla Model X for 2 years now. Last year I detailed the delivery story and a few minor issues here in our 1 year of ownership post. Now at the 2-year mark, I can report that I still love the car. It is so much fun. This is by far the best (and most expensive) car that I've ever owned. The software updates bring improvements and easter eggs that keep the car exciting.

How is the car aging?
We have nearly 25,000 miles on the odometer. With my other cars, I would typically only have 9 or 10 thousand miles per year. I enjoy this can so much that I'm looking for reasons to drive it. I've taken two road trips to San Diego and for a family vacation, we toured the 7 Wonders of Oregon, we traveled to southern Oregon multiple times to visit family, and we've taken it to the coast for beach clean-up events. We've even used bioweapon defense mode while traveling through the smoke of raging forest fires.

After buying a Leaf in 2011, I was hooked on electric and knew that I was never going back to a gas car. However, the Leaf experience left me concerned about battery degradation. Before buying the Model X, I researched Tesla's battery lifespan & degradation and was impressed by graphs like the one below:

Seeing that they have been highly reliable is great, but how is my car doing? Similar to the tracking that I've been doing with our Leaf since 2012, I've been collecting and charting battery data for our Tesla for over a year now. Here's the resulting graph:

The first graph shows degradation based on distance driven, whereas my graph is based on age, but we do know the odometer reading.

2-years, ~25,000 miles ~40,000 km, degradation = 4.3% 

This puts my results inline with others in the first chart. The good news is that degradation seems to significantly slow down after ~5%. Time will tell. Our Leaf never seems to find a spot where the degradation slowed. As the range decreased, the demands on the battery capacity grew and with it so did the degradation this caused. The Tesla, on the other hand, has far more capacity and a far better thermal management system. Next year's 3-year report will be telling.

National Drive Electric Week event in Wilsonville on September 15th, 2018

NDEW 2017 at Washington Square Mall Indoor Display

The OEVA is holding their National Drive Electric Week event in Wilsonville on September 15^th from 10-3.

A big part of the event is the PGE Electric Test Drive – people who test drive EV’s leading up to and at the event can earn free entries into the OEVA fundraising raffle. The prize is $5,000 towards the purchase or lease of an EV (new or used)! Note: Current OEVA members are NOT eligible to win, but someone that joins after Sept 1^st is OK.

The OEVA is selling raffle tickets @$5 each, PGE is purchasing the free tickets that are given away for test drives. If you know friends/co-workers that want to buy tickets, we will have them for sale at the event (and at our monthly meeting on Thur)

We currently have 10+ dealers providing test drives at the event, with more giving free entries for test drives at their locations leading up to the event.

Platt Auto will be doing test drives on used EVs and we will draw for a fun door prize – 3 day extended test drive of a Tesla Model S subject to availability). He is also giving away a JuiceBox Pro 40 at his booth – stop by and enter the drawing.

As always, we can use volunteers!

You can get more info and register to attend (or volunteer) at:

https://driveelectricweek.org/event.php?eventid=1293

Gary Exner

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE September 7, 2018 CONTACT: Jennifer Kalez, 503-480-9239 Plug In: Oregon Department of Energy Invites Oregonians to Celebrate National Drive Electric Week SALEM — It’s National Drive Electric Week, and the Oregon Department of Energy wants Oregonians to know that now is a great time to go electric. From September 8-16, we’re celebrating zero emissions with plenty of torque, widespread availability of plug-in all-electric and hybrid vehicles, and an expanding network of charging infrastructure to support EV adoption. With an array of financial incentives and rebates, Oregonians can save big by making the switch to an EV. The Department of Environmental Quality’s Clean Vehicle Rebate Program offers savings of up to $5,000 for qualifying EVs. Combined with a federal tax credit of up to $7,500, you could save about a third of the cost of some EV models. “DEQ is excited to offer financial incentives through the Oregon Clean Vehicle Rebate Program, which will reduce barriers to purchasing EVs, protect public health, and fight climate change,” said DEQ Director Richard Whitman. Oregon electric utilities are also stepping up to support EV adoption. Eugene Water & Electric Board customers can qualify for a $300 rebate on new or used electric vehicles. Pacific Power customers can save an extra $3,000 on a 2018 Nissan LEAF if they buy before September 30. EVs are fun to drive, with plenty of get-up-and-go. Plus, they are often less expensive to run and maintain than traditional gasoline cars. Five dollars’ worth of gasoline can get you about 47 miles down the road, while a $5 EV battery charge will take you about 176 miles! And with bigger, lighter batteries and more fast charging stations across the state, including along some of Oregon’s most scenic roadways, electric vehicles are road trip-ready. EVs offer another important benefit: zero tailpipe emissions. “Electric vehicles are a better choice for our environment,” said Janine Benner, Oregon Department of Energy Director and EV owner. “Replacing traditional engines with zero emission vehicles can help reduce greenhouse gases and harmful air pollutants. That’s why we hope to have at least 50,000 registered EVs on Oregon roads by the end of 2020.” Ready to take a test drive? National Drive Electric Week events are popping up in Oregon over the next week – check them out at driveelectricweek.org/events.php. From car shows to ride-and-drive events, there’s something for everyone. Head over to Sunriver for Midstate Electric Coop’s Electric Tailgate Party, take the scenic route to the beach for Drive Electric Yachats, or pop up to Wilsonville for the PGE Electric Test Drive and enter to win $5,000 off the purchase of an EV. Learn more about EVs in Oregon, including how the State of Oregon is working to reach our 50,000 EV goal, on the Go Electric Oregon website: goelectric.oregon.gov.  "Electric Avenue" in Portland, OR About the Department of Energy  The Oregon Department of Energy helps Oregonians improve the energy efficiency of their homes, provides policy expertise to prepare for Oregon’s future energy needs, staffs the Energy Facility Siting Council, provides technical and financial assistance to encourage investments in energy efficiency and renewable energy resources, promotes the cleanup of the Hanford nuclear site, and ensures state preparedness to respond to emergencies at energy facilities. Oregon Department of Energy: Leading Oregon to a safe, clean, and sustainable energy future.   550 Capitol Street N.E. Salem, OR 97301 Phone: 503-378-4040 Toll-free in Oregon: 1-800-221-8035 Fax: 503-373-7806 www.oregon.gov/ENERGY

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1 Million EVs on US Roadways Very Soon

There are 956 thousand plug-in cars on US roads today. About 33 thousand of these were added in August of this year. And the growth is not showing any sign of slowing. If September and October put up similar results, we'll cross the 1 Million Milestone!

data via InsideEVs

We first started tracking the progress towards this goal in 2016. Back then, we projected that as 200+ mile EVs came out, these EVs would appeal to a larger market than the ~ 100-mile range EVs had and that EVs sales would grow and we'd be ringing in 2019 with more than 1 million EVs on the US roads. I'm happy to report that this forecast has proven to be very accurate.

2018 will be the Year of 1 Million Plug-in Vehicles on U.S. roadways.



There's at least one person, however, that might not be happy to see these domestically fueled cars on the roadway. That person is Charles Lane, Washington Post opinion writer. You see, Charles proposed a wager with a fellow journalist. Charles didn’t think that there would be 1 million plug-in hybrid and all-electric cars on the road in the United States by 2018. The stakes of the bet are a new car. If Charles wins, he gets a new BMW. If he loses, he has to buy a Chevy Volt for his fellow journalist. If "by 2018" means "by the end of 2018" then Charles better make friends with his local Chevy dealer and start shopping for year-end specials.

Model 3 is here!

Delivery Day

On March 31st of 2016, I stood in line (like thousands of others) to reserve a Tesla Model 3. This car was the culmination of Tesla's 2006 master plan to make a compelling, affordable, electric car. The Model 3 is far and away the best selling EV; as well as the best selling car in its segment, outselling all other cars in the small and midsize luxury sedan segment in the US. That's more than the BMW 3 Series, the Mercedes C-Class, Audi A3, and many others. This car is a game changer, putting more electric cars on the road.

Here's our car's configuration.

Timeline From Reservation to Delivery

Date	Days Since Reservation	Event
3/31/2016	0	Stood in line to reserve a Model 3
7/28/2017	484	First Model 3s delivered to Tesla employees
2/4/2018	675	Invited to order First Production. Opted to wait for dual motor.
6/26/2018	817	Ordered dual motor
7/29/2018	850	Changed to white seats
8/21/2018	873	Delivered

VIN Decode - Yep, It's Dual Motor 

The badge on the back says dual motor. Without climbing under the car, how could I confirm this? One method is by the VIN. In addition to telling you where the car occurred in the production sequence, the VIN also tells you many other things about the car. Here is our VIN breakdown (or at least one close to it).

VIN decoder from http://teslatap.com/vin-decoder/ 

The VIN confirms that it has a second motor.

Getting Ready for the Road

Before taking off on a road trip, we're getting a paint protection film and window tinting installed. Tesla might be leaving some money on the table by not offering these. Dashcams are another product that many Tesla owners install. If these were an option in the design studio, I'm sure Tesla could sell a few and increase their margin on the vehicle. However, at this point in time, Tesla are trying to increase their production volume, so these minor revenue items would only slow them down, but they might be something to consider later. These are just minor issues, let's look at the bigger issue.

The Harbinger of Change

Telephones were invented in 1876 and they had very few changes for over a century. They had rotary dials until touch-tone phones came along in the 1980s. The next big change was the adoption of smartphones after the iPhone burst onto the scene in 2007. The iPhone was not the first smartphone, but it was the one that spread beyond the early adopters. Similarly, the Model 3 is not the first electric car, but it is the one that has captured the public's imagination. Many people that have never been interested in electric cars before are buying Model 3s. The transition of personal transportation will not happen as quickly as the move to smartphones, but it has begun. 

I'll be driving around in our 3 (as soon as the paint protection is applied), giving people rides, and letting friends drive it to help bring the future here a little sooner. 

Tesla Model 3 Performance qualifies for Free Supercharging w/ code

Tesla Model 3 Performance, photo via Autoweek

The performance version of the Model 3 now qualifies for Free Supercharging if (and only if) you use a referral code when you buy it.

This referral program started on August 1, 2018. When it will end is not clear.

Here is my code patrick7819; feel free to use it with a Model S, Model X, Model 3 Performance, or even a Roadster.

Elon Musk Book List - Adults and Children

Undaunted: How Elon Musk Created 3 Giant Companies And Became A Billionaire by Ivan Fernandez

Love him or hate him, he's one of the most interesting people of our time. On one hand, he has grand visions for a multiplanetary future, has delivered more zero-emission cars than all the other auto-makers combined, sells solar panels to 'fuel' those cars with sunshine, has gone up against huge entrenched interests and come out victorious where others might have balked at the attempt. On the other hand, he's outspoken on twitter, has a habit of promising things will happen in "3 months maybe, 6 months definitely" that might take years to deliver. Millions have been made and lost on Tesla stock based on his utterances in quarterly calls with analysts.

If you want to know more about the man behind SpaceX, Tesla, The Boring Company, Hyperloop, (previously) OpenAI, Neuralink and what's behind his public persona, you're not alone. There are several books written about him. Where he comes from, his parents, upbringing, siblings, influences, first principles thinking...

The book to start with (and the only one that Musk agreed to be interviewed for AFAIK) is Ashlee Vance's Elon Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future. Musk has refuted a few things in the book such as how he terminated his personal assistant when she asked for vacation time, but this is by far the most comprehensive of the Musk biographies.

Next on the list is the booklet Elon Musk: Biography of a Self-Made Visionary, Entrepreneur and Billionaire. It covers Musk's early companies Zip2, X.com, & PayPal. And how doing things in a new way has been a driving force behind each of Musk's companies be it SpaceX and the Journey to Mars, or SolarCity giving away solar panels and selling the electricity that they generate.

Next we have, Elon Musk: The Life, Lessons & Rules For Success. You generally don't become a billionaire without hard work and guiding principles. Musk often works 80 to 100 hours a week and expects others around him to "work their asses off too." All of this is in service of the vision of creating a "future that doesn't suck."

Last in this section is Elon Musk’s Best Lessons for Life, Business, Success and Entrepreneurship. Musk famously said "Failure is an option here. If things are not failing, you are not innovating enough." This book covers Musk's failures and how for most people, the fear of failure prevents the biggest successes. Success is found on the far side of failure; embrace failure, learn from it, innovate.

The Creative Gang

Musk is also included in books with other out of the box CEOs such as Steve Jobs and Jeff Bezos.

Secrets to Success in Life & Business of Billionaires is a 3 book set covering Elon Musk, Steve Jobs, and Richard Branson.

Next, we have The Space Barons: Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, and the Quest to Colonize the Cosmos.

Books For Kids

Musk is an inspiring figure. He launches rockets, makes cool cars, digs tunnels, and was the inspiration for the modern Iron Man movie franchize. He has captured popular culture's imagination and this includes children's.

There are several books about Musk for children. Just as the first list started with a book by Ashlee Vance, so does this section. Elon Musk and the Quest for a Fantastic Future Young Readers' Edition is adapted from the full biography.

For even younger children, there's Elon Musk: This Book Is about Rockets. Because rockets are awesome and ones that land themselves on a barge floating at sea are even cooler. One day, they might even take us to Mars.

I hope you can find something engaging to read for yourself, a friend, or family in this list. Enjoy.

Disclosures: 

This article includes Amazon Associates links.

I'm Long Tesla