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Tuesday, January 10, 2023

2023 Tesla's Two Million Vehicle Year!

Last year, we wondered if Tesla would be able to produce 2 million vehicles in 2022. Our determination and that it wouldn't happen in 2022. Tesla's final production number for 2022 was 1.369 million. 

Now we're asking the same question for 2023 and it's a real possibility for 2023. 

Tesla's Guidance 2.05 M

Tesla's general guidance is for 50 percent growth. Applying this to guidance to last year's number is 2.05 million vehicles. 

Exponential Growth 2.18 M

Looking at the chart above, plotting an exponential growth model on it and the forecast is production of 2.18 million. This is 130,000 more than Tesla's guidance. 

Linear Growth 1.86 M

Tesla is NOT in the linear growth phase, but this will provide a floor for a bad year. The result is a forecast of 1.86 million vehicles. 

Other Factors

Both Gigafactory Austin and Gigafactory Berlin will be ramping production this year. 

To truly model this in detail, each of the production lines would need to be modeled. The mature lines would have little to no growth; whereas the new production lines will be growing significantly. 

The last few years have been a mess. Supply shortages, pandemic shutdowns... there's no guarantee that this year will be any different. A new variant could pop up and cause similar problems or another force majeure event could occur; so as we often say here, the only thing we know for sure is that there will be plenty of twists and turns. 

This is the year the Cybertruck is expected to start shipping. Trucks are the best-selling vehicle in the US. Production could mean a big bump in sales. How fast Tesla can get to volume production will be a significant factor. 

Semitruck: Tesla has begun shipping their Semi. Each one has about a dozen cars worth of battery cells. If there's a cell shortage and Tesla has Semi delivery commitments, this could impact Tesla energy products or in the unlikely worst case, vehicle production. 

Wrapping Up

We've generated estimates from 1.86 million to 2.18 million. Will this be the year of 2 million vehicles or will they just miss it the same way that 2021 just missed the 1 million mark? We shall see. After the world of craziness of the last few years, I think we've earned a calm year of steady growth and that results in Tesla nailing their guidance at 2.05 million. 

Disclosure: I am long Tesla

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