Plug-in Hybrid SUVs Are An Underserved Market

Two years ago I wrote that my next vehicle would be a plug-in hybrid SUV.

Yet I'm still waiting to buy that vehicle. In the 2014 story, I listed many PHEV SUVs or crossovers that were "coming soon". A few have actually made it to the U.S. market, while others, like the Mitsu Outlander PHEV have been delayed again and again.

Some of these may be hard to find, but are plug-in SUV and crossover models that are for sale in the U.S. today:

Porsche Cayenne S-E

Base MSRP: $78,000
Federal tax credit: $5300
Technology: Plug-in Hybrid
Body type: Crossover
Seats: 5
EPA Range: 14 miles electric + gasoline
Battery size: 11 kWh

BMW X5 xDrive40e

Base MSRP: $64,000
Federal tax credit: $4600
Technology: Plug-in Hybrid
Body type: SUV
Seats: 5
EPA Range: 13 miles electric + gasoline
Battery size: 9 kWh

Volvo XC90 T8

Base MSRP: $69,000
Est. tax credit: $4600
Technology: Plug-in Hybrid
Body type: SUV
Seats: 7
EPA Range: 17 miles electric + gasoline
Battery size: 9 kWh

Tesla Model X

Base MSRP: $80,000+
Est. tax credit: $7500
Technology: Electric Vehicle
Body type: Crossover
Seats: 7
EPA Range: 250 miles pure electric
Battery size: 90 kWh

This one is not a PHEV, but it was on my original 2015 list of potential plug-in SUVs and it is actually shipping now.



It's time to plug in!

How To Get $3750 Of Free Upgrades On A Tesla Model 3

Tesla confirmed that the highly anticipated Model 3, set to be unveiled on March 31, will have a base price of $35,000 before incentives. Tesla will start taking pre-orders on unveiling date and they plan to start delivers of vehicles in Q4 of 2017. With the $7,500 federal tax subsidy, you could drive off in a base Model 3 for $27,500. If you live in a state that has additional tax credits, it could be even cheaper.

That $7,500 federal tax incentive is a significant price reduction to a $35,000 vehicle, but (even if you pre-order this year) there is no guarantee that this incentive will still be available by the time you receive your Model 3. The law creating the federal tax incentive only applies to the first 200,000 vehicles sold in the US from each auto manufacturer then it phases out over 1 year. More specifically, after the quarter following the 200,000th sale, the incentive drops down to $3,750 for six months and then it drops to $1,875 for the next six months.

When Will Tesla Hit 200,000 Total Sales?

So the question is, when will Tesla hit 200,000 in sales? And will it be before they start Model 3 deliveries? Tesla holds their sales data closer to the vest than most car companies. They release quarterly sales numbers, rather than monthly, and they don't break down their sales by country. Inside EVs reports that cumulative worldwide sales through the end of 2015 for Tesla tally up to some 107,000 Model S, the first batch of 214 Model X, and about 1900 Roadsters. Trying to determine the US sales for Tesla, I found the Inside EV folks also have a monthly sales scorecard that was very helpful. They comb Tesla's data and they make monthly and US estimates. Taking their data, I have created the chart below:

After plugging their data into a spreadsheet, I added a trendline to estimate the 200,000 vehicle mark. This trendline, of course, is just based on the historic data. It has no weighting for economic factors or other very important (and possibly unpredictable) things like competitor's products or production delays. Additionally, there are many ways to generate trendlines. This one is a 4th order polynomial. Some other options were more optimistic, others were less optimistic. This one felt right. In other words, while a good fit, it's just a guess. This guess predicts that Tesla will cross the 200,000 mark in September of 2017. The Model 3 is planned to start deliveries in Q4 of 2017. If this guess is accurate, it would mean that the federal tax incentive for Tesla vehicles will be halved right about the time that Model 3 deliveries begin.

        

The federal tax incentive for Tesla could be halved just as Model 3 deliveries start.

How to move up in the queue

In the Tesla Motors fourth quarter 2015 financial conference call, regarding Model 3 sales, Elon Musk said:

Our default plan, as we've done in the past, is that the initial sales are the relatively highly optioned versions of the car. Because, obviously, we've got to pay back the investment of all the tooling and everything, so that sort of makes sense to have the higher optioned versions first. That's what we did with the Model S and also again with the Model X.

So your neighbor could order a base model on in the first hour of pre-orders, then two weeks later, you could order an optioned-up version with the tech package, premium interior, and high fidelity sound system and you would get your car months before your neighbor. Is it fair? Maybe not, but that's how it works.

$3750 Of Free Upgrades

So we finally get to The Click-Bait title of the article. How do you get $3750 worth of free upgrades?

If the trendline above is close to accurate, then it is likely that only the first quarter of Model 3 delivered vehicles will qualify for the full $7500 of federal incentives. After that, the incentive will drop down to $3750. So waiting in line behind the optioned up vehicles could cost you $3750 in incentives. If you are going to pay an extra $3750 for waiting in line for a basic model, why not spend the $3750 on upgrades, pay the same price and get your car sooner and get the entire federal incentive?

There are a few caveats that I should include. Tesla's sales may ramp slower than the trendline above, in which case you'll be able to receive the full incentive. Conversely, the Model 3 could be delayed and there is no guarantee that even the first Model 3 would receive the full incentive if sales of the Model S and X continue at a brisk pace.

A Better Incentive

Tesla is not the only auto manufacturer that is approaching the 200,000 vehicle mark in the 2017/18 timeframe. I'd like to propose a change to the tax incentive to make it apply to the first 4 million EVs sold, rather than the first 200,000 per manufacturer. The argument is that setting a limit per manufacturer punishes the early pioneering companies that advanced the technology and created the market.

Imagine it's 2019, VW and Kia EVs receive a $7500 discount, while Tesla, GM, & Nissan EVs would have no federal incentive. This would be a very uneven playing field for EV sales. Additionally, I propose that the ramp down steps are per tax year, rather than 6-month intervals. This would simplify tax filings for credit.

There have been other ideas to improve the incentive too such as making it $10,000 and applying it at the point of sale rather than a tax credit. These are good ideas that should also be considered for a better incentive program.

Good luck and I hope to see you in a Model 3 soon!

Tesla Model 3 vs Chevy Bolt - Charging Network tips the scales

Tesla and GM are both coming out with ~$30,000 electric vehicles with ~200-mile range. How do these two compare?

Today, we don't know the specs in detail or the final pricing so it is impossible to make an objective comparison. However, one thing we do know though is the charging network support.

When people talk about cars, they generally talk about things like acceleration, cargo space, styling and the like. While these things certainly matter, today I'm going to be discussing charging. Other than asking "How long does it take?", charging is often overlooked by first-time EV buyers.

Fast charging matters

Most EV charging happens at home or at work. Level 2 public charging is nice to have, but cars don't tend to spend a significant amount of time at shopping centers or restaurants, so Level 2 charging, while nice for an opportunistic sip, is not convenient for road trips. Long distance driving requires DC fast charging. Depending on the car and its range, fast charging can add more than a hundred miles of range in less than 30 minutes. This is not as fast as a gas station fill up (yet), but it certainly makes long distant trips possible. This greatly increases the utility of an electric vehicle, even if it is only needed occasionally.

Tesla Model ≡ vs Chevy Bolt :: battle to be EV of the future 

Assuming the Model 3 and Bolt are similar in price and specifications, they'll be in direct competition and their differences will be far more important than their similarities.

This coming clash of monster EVs reminds me of a stop-motion monster fight I saw in a movie as a kid. Bear with me, this really does tie back to our topic. I think there are lessons in that old movie battle that might apply to the battle for the EV of the future.

 Griffin vs Cyclops Centaur

In the movie, The Golden Voyage of Sinbad, a griffin and a centaur are locked in battle. They are evenly matched, it's a stalemate. One of them fights for Sinbad, while the other fights for the bad guy, Sorcerer Koura. Earlier in the movie, The Oracle of All Knowledge said, "For it is the deeds of weak and mortal men that may tip the scales one way or the other." Koura figures out that this battle is what the oracle's prophecy referred to; so (spoiler alert) he slashes at the griffin when it's distracted by the centaur. One small cut from a human on a giant monster would normally not matter much, but in this case, it was all that was needed to tip the scales. The griffin's weakened leg slips, the centaur gets the upper hand and the battle is quickly over.

This lesson has stuck with me. The little things matter and can often be the deciding factor for big issues. In our EV battle, the charging network could be the "deeds of weak and mortal men that tips the scales."

Too Many Standards Means No Standard

"The nice thing about standards is that you have so many to choose from." ~Andy Tanenbaum

Today, there are three options for DC fast charging. They are CHAdeMO, CCS, and Tesla Supercharging.

Japanese and S. Korean automakers (Nissan, Mitsu, Kia) use CHAdeMO. European and US automakers (GM, Ford, BMW, VW) use CCS. Whereas Tesla, of course, has their own proprietary (open patent) system.

There are plenty of comparisons out there that have details of the charging rate for each. For the purposes of this discussion, they are fast enough for treks and that is fast enough.

SAE Combo Charging System (CCS)

GM supports the CCS DC Fast Charge standard. This is the standard defined by the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE), the same organization that defines the Level 2 standard that is used worldwide. Despite great engineering from a trusted engineering standards body, CCS has a few problems.

SAE CCS Plug and Receptacle 

First, CCS was the last of the three DC methods to be deployed. This generation of EV started selling in December of 2010 with the Leaf and Volt. CCS did not start deploying in any significant amount until 2015. This is 4 wasted years.

Second, as you can see the CCS locations in the map below, CCS stations are not spread throughout the country. You could not drive coast-to-coast using CCS stations. The stations are clumped in the areas where the cars are sold.

There is no central body examining the CCS network to determine where they are needed. About a year ago BMW, Volkswagen, and ChargePoint teamed up to deploy CCS stations. They seem to be focused on the coasts. This makes sense since that is where the cars sell the best. But that does not mean those are the only places that owners want to drive.

SAE CCS DC Fast Charger Locations Feb 2016 via Plugshare

Third, I'm concerned about how well the CCS stations will be maintained. Today, the Blink CHAdeMO stations have a horrible reliability record. The stations are installed at stores and restaurants that know little if anything about them. And they are often even unaware when they are not functioning, let alone how to repair them. Additionally, at these stations, there is often only one DC fast charger at a given site. That means when it breaks down, you're out of luck. What you had planned as a 30-minute quick charge stop could turn into a 4 hour Level 2 charging stop.

Tesla Supercharger Network 

Tesla was unhappy with the fast charge options offered by either CHAdeMO or CCS, so they created their own. Unfortunately, this added yet another method and complicates charging matters. Tesla superchargers use the same connector for either AC charging or DC supercharging. 

Below is a map of the Tesla Supercharger network that is active today.

Tesla Supercharger US Network Feb 2016 via Tesla Motors

As you can see there are multiple routes that you could take on a coast to coast drive with this network. And as you'll see below, before the Model 3 comes out, the network will be even more complete.

Tesla Supercharger US Network Planned By End Of 2016 via Tesla Motors

Tesla's locations are selected to allow for intercity travel. Station locations are more likely to be in between cities than in an urban center. This allows it to be used by traffic in either direction.

At a supercharger location, there are generally multiple stations. This means that if one station is broken or occupied, there are other stations that you can use.

This supercharger network is just a part of Tesla's charging infrastructure available to their cars. There's also destination charging that allows you to fill up overnight at many hotels and BnB locations.

Tesla's stations are free and they are part of the Tesla ownership experience. This helps them sell cars. This means that the stations are well maintained. The stations are internet connected and the state of each station can be queried. If supercharger stations are down, it reflects poorly on Tesla's brand and quality. It is in their best interest to keep these stations up and running. They respond quickly.

The final advantage that Tesla has is that their cars can use any the three DC fast chargers. Tesla has an adapter for CHAdeMO stations and they are making an adapter for CCS stations.

Wrap Up

The Tesla Model 3 has several advantages over the Chevy Bolt.

First, Tesla has taken an active role in creating a maintaining a vast, free charging network. GM, on the other hand, seems to think that, just as with gas cars, refueling is not part of their business.

Second, reliability is incredibly important in a charging network. When you plan a route and expect recharging to be there, it had better be there, available and functional. Tesla's stations are maintained by Tesla, they have skin in the game. The network is there to help them sell cars. Other networks are deployed by companies that are trying to make a profit from charging fees. For them, if 95% of their network is operational, they are still generating 95% of their revenue.

Third, the ability for Tesla vehicles to use adapters is a significant advantage. CHAdeMO equipped vehicles can only use the CHAdeMO network. CCS-equipped vehicles, like the Bolt, can only use the CCS network. Tesla vehicles will be able to use both of these networks and the Tesla Superchargers. This makes Tesla's vehicles the easiest to find charging for compared to any other.

If the oracle from Sinbad was referring to charging networks, then the scales are tipped in Tesla's favor.

Workplace EV Charging: The Google Story

ChargePoint and Google had a joint webinar on workplace charging.
Here is the link: Workplace EV Charging: The Google Story

Here are a few of the key-points (several of these are arguable but I'll save that for later).

ChargePoint

• EVs are here to stay (and growing)
• 200-mile $30,000 vehicles are coming (in 2017) and will boost EV sales
• Workplace charging increases employee satisfaction and retention
• ChargePoint does not recommend Level 1 for workplace charging for several reasons
• Quick Charging (DC Fast Charge) can supplement Level 2 or work with valet parking
• Charging fees can encourage people to move their cars and improve utilization
• - One customer had free charging for the first 5 hours, then $10 per hour after that
    This got people to move
• Charging can be part of a sustainable transportation program (LEED points)
• Smart/connected stations allows for data collection and real-time availability/use data
• Currently there are no tax impacts for free charging
• Trenching costs can be more than the stations depending on where you put them
• EV driving reduces CO2 (even considering the electricity generation)
• Have a cord management plan (be safe)
• ChargePoint is great, we have great stuff, we're awesome...

Google

• Google wants to be a carbon neutral company
• Electrification of their fleet, shuttle busses, and supporting employees to do the same is part of this program
• Workplace charging is a nice company perk if you want to hire good people
• They started in 2007 with Level 1
• In 2010 Level 2 was defined, Google started a team to plan for EV charging
• 5% of parking spots electrified was their 1st target
• Level 2 allows for multiple charging sessions per day
• Bring your own EVSE Level 1 was not a positive experience
• Google wanted connected systems so they t data (Google loves data)
• When you wire a region, overbuild for future expansion
• They did install regular (level 1) outlets and RV 240V outlets too that older EVs and scooters could use AND these can be used for events in the lot or mobile command needs
• These were important for LEED certification too
• ADA considerations (there are many)
• Code requirements were different in different cities (copy exact policy did always work)
• Confirmed that this was not a taxable 1099 benefit
• Solar helps offset mid-day demand
• Mobile/temp stations worked in areas they could not modify
• They have DC fast charge for the fleet (with some employee use)
• They have about 1900 charging sessions per day
• They are promoting this with other groups
• They had 1000% growth in EVs on campus from 2012
• They are now targeting 10% of parking spaces to be electrified
• "Move cords, not cars" is current policy. They are installing stations in head-to-head spots
• Grassroots communities, mailing lists, "swap buddies" help balance out over subscription
• Growing to 20% of parking spots
• Looking at smart charging methods to control demand charges... This could become a product

Ω

100,000 Page Views

This blog recently had its 100,000th page view. I know many of these are internet crawling bots, but you (you reading this right now), you are a real person. So I say thank you to all for you real people for reading my scribbles.

I've published 632 entries (prior to this one) since starting this blog in 2009. I must admit that many of the posts are snippets from stories that interested me with little or no commentary from me. One of my most popular is my three year review of Nissan Leaf ownership. Nissan shared this one on their social media media channels.

In these 600 posts I've written about:

• My speculations about how autonomous vehicles will change the world
  
• My experience with the Oregon tax by the mile program 
• About fuel cells and how Toyota and others are using the wrong method to introduce this technology
• How Tesla has spurred the entire industry to make daring moves that no large encumbered corporation is comfortable with while also launching a sea of copycat startups
• How, driven by our longer running mobile devices, batteries are on a compounding improvement course and this will bring affordable 200 (and eventually 300) mile EVs 
• How solar panels on our home make more energy than our annual EV driving uses 
• Gave you a guide to determine how many solar panels you'll need to power your own EV
• The psychology of people that "don't get" EVs
• The transition to plug-in transportation will happen, but it will be a slow transition. There are are a lot of cars on the road and they are not swapped out like the seasons fashion. 
• One of my favorite posts was about innovate or die
  
• I've looked into the mind of Elon Musk
• 9 Reasons Oregon is Perfect for EVs
• A guide to workplace charging best practices 
• I incorrectly predicted that Tesla would move to ultracapacitors 
• About my adventures driving on the West Coast Electric Highway

Looking back, many of these subjects are due to be updated and I just might delete that one about the ultracapacitors. 

1 Million Plug-in Cars on U.S. Roads

2015 has come and gone, along with it President Obama’s goal from 2010 to put 1 million plug-in vehicles (PEV) on the road in the United States by 2015 has passed by unaccomplished.

It was not a complete loss though, worldwide there were 1 million PEVs on the road at the close of 2015. The atmosphere does not have a national citizenship, so I'll still count this as a victory.

        

The atmosphere does not have a national citizenship.



Since the goal for US roadways didn't happen in 2015, when will there be 1 million plug-in vehicles on US roads? Let's make some estimations. First, I looked at the PEV sales data on EDTA and added a simple linear trend in sales growth. The result is the chart below:

This chart predicts that as 2018 closes and we ring in 2019, we'll be just shy of the 1 million vehicle goal. If this is accurate (unlikely) we'll hit the goal in January of 2019.

Of course, there are many factors that could influence this: gas prices, emissions and CAFE targets, incentives, technology breakthroughs...

For the sales trend above, I used the pessimistic linear trend. A polynomial or exponential sales trend is much more optimistic and would hasten the accomplishment significantly.

EV-pessimist and opinion writer at The Washington Post, Charles Lane, has made a significant bet that this 1 million PEV goal will not be achieved by the end of 2018. The above chart has him barely winning this bet. However, when the next generation of affordable 200-mile range EVs go on sale (Chevy Bolt, Tesla Model 3, next gen Nissan Leaf...) in 2017, there should be a significant step-up in EV sales and then sorry Charlie, 2018 will be the "year of 1 million PEVs".

        

2018 will be the Year of 1 Million Plug-in Vehicles on U.S. roadways.

Gallons of Sunshine - Part 2: How much does it cost to charge an EV?

How much does it cost to charge an EV? With a gas car, you can easily figure out the cost. Let's say gas is $2.50 per gallon and you need 10 gallons; that's $25. If you get 25 MPG, those 10 gallons will get you 250 miles. That is a dime for each mile you drive. If you drive a gas car, you can, of course adjust this for your local gas prices and your vehicle's MPG.

With an EV that you charge at home, you generally don't get a separate EV charging bill (although some utilities are offering "EV tariff rates" that are cheaper than the normal rate). Assuming you are not on one of these EV tariff programs, then EV charging shows up on your regular bill and it is indistinguishable from your TV or refrigerator's electrical usage. I don't know about your electricity bill, but mine is complicated. There are different rates for different levels of usage, there are distribution charges, connection fees, taxes... Each bill is about 20 items long. But you can simplify things. Just find the total kilowatt-hours (kWh) used and then find the amount due. From these two you can find final the cost per kWh. Our most recent bill was $173 for 1517 kWh. That is an average of 11.4¢ per kWh.

Once you have the price per kWh, you can figure out the price per mile for an EV. A 2015 Nissan Leaf, for example, has an EPA rating of 3.33 miles per kWh. That works out to 3.4¢ per mile. That is about one third of the 10¢ per mile from the gas example above.

You can think about this way, every $10 you spend on electricity saves you $30 at the pump.

Above we used the simplest method to compute the cost of a kWh. In 2012, we signed up for Portland General Electric's Time-of-Use (TOU) program. It's a time-of-day based rate system. TOU charges different rates for electricity at different times of the day. They have on-peak, mid-peak, and off-peak pricing. Here is the chart from our December 2015 bill.

Time-of-use chart

Most EVs are charged overnight. This is off-peak. The off-peak rate is listed as 4.2¢ per kWh, but there are distribution fees and other things that bring the actual cost to 8.8¢ per kWh. That works out to just 2.67¢ per mile. This is 73% cheaper than the gasoline example above.

        

Even with gas at $2.50 per gallon, charging an EV at off-peak times can be 73% cheaper than driving a gas car.



I started writing this post because recently there were some questions about TOU from my 2013 post on the topic here. So in the rest of this, I'll break down our December electricity bill in more detail.

Electricity is generally inexpensive here in the Pacific Northwest when compared to places such as southern California. So here, the default program is usually a flat rate (called Basic Charge by PGE). With a flat rate, a kWh costs the same at noon as it does at midnight. As you use more, you may move into a different pricing tier, but the time-of-day does not matter.

Here, it only makes sense (and cents) to switch to a TOU program if you can move 50% or more of your usage to off-peak. As you can see in the chart above for December, we were right at the 50% mark.

We shifted our usage in two primary ways. First, we have 12.3 kW of solar panels. This generates electricity during on-peak and mid-peak, thereby reducing our grid demand during these times. Second, as discussed above, we have an electric car. The car's charging station is programed to charge the car up from 3 to 6 AM each morning. This fills up the car during the off-peak rate period. We plan on adding a 2nd plug-in car to our home fleet soon. This will increase our off-peak usage even more.

The concept of TOU is simple enough, but the impacts to your bill are more complex. The best way to understand it is to examine an actual bill so you can understand how it might save (or not save) you money.

December is a good month to examine since it's one of the worst case months. In the spring and summer, we save about $10 on each bill. In the winter we are close to break even, we may save a little or pay a little extra than we would if we were on the flat rate. Looking at it annual, we save money, so paying a little extra in the winter is no big deal.

So here are the details from our December 2015 bill:

Off Peak Rate	kWh	Subtotal	Adjusted	Adj Subtotal
$0.04195	761	$31.92	$0.08793	$66.91
Mid Peak Rate	kWh	Subtotal	Adjusted	Adj Subtotal
$0.07222	436	$31.49	$0.11820	$51.53
Peak Rate	kWh	Subtotal	Adjusted	Adj Subtotal
$0.12581	320	$40.26	$0.17179	$54.97

I should clarify that adjusted rate (Adj per kWh) is not listed on the bill. I computed this by adding up all the additional charges that are on the bill. There are 16 of them. Most of these are per kWh charges and are easily applied to each rate. A few apply to only the first 1000 kWh and others (like the $10 connection fee) are a fixed amount. To simplify all of this I just prorated all the charges as per kWh. While not 100% accurate, it is close enough and this method accounts for the entire $173 bill. By far the biggest of these adjustment fees was the $60 Distribution Charge. It accounted for 85% of the adjustment amount and it was a per kWh charge.

Here is our list of per kWh adjustments:

per kWh Adjustments	Fee per kWh
105 Regulatory Adjustments	-$0.0006600
109 Energy Efficiency Funding	$0.0031800
110 Energy Efficiency Customer	$0.0000700
122 Renewable Resource	$0.0001800
123 Decoupling Adjustment	$0.0003400
137 Solar Payment Option Cost	$0.0004700
143 Spent Fuel Adjust	-$0.0012700
144 Capital Projects Adjust	$0.0016100
145 Boardman Decom Adj	$0.0003700
Transmission Charge	$0.0024600
Distribution Charge	$0.0392600

And here is the list of fixed charges or charges that didn't apply to every kWh:

Fixed Rate & Capped kWh Adj
Basic Fee	$10.00000
First Block Adjustment	-$7.22000
Low Income Assistance	$0.84000
Public Purpose Charge	$4.88000
102 RPA Exchange Credit	-$8.55000

How much would this month have cost with the flat rate? The adjustments and fixed charges are the same on either the TOU or the Basic Rate plan.

Basic Rate	kWh	Rate	Adjusted	Adj Subtotal
1st MWh	1000	$0.0650	$0.1110	$110.98
Over 1MWh	517	$0.0722	$0.1182	$61.11

This adds up to $172, so we would have saved $1 if we were on the flat rate plan. Again, this is more than made up for by our summertime savings. In fact, I'll make this deal with any of you. For every $10 that you give me in July, I'll give you $1 in December :)  PGE does not let you switch between the Basic Rate and TOU rate each month. When you sign up for the TOU rate program, it's a one year commitment. So I can't take the $10 in July and then skip out on the $1 in December. The good news is that in the first year on the TOU program they guarantee that your total annual bill will not be more than 10% higher than it would have been with the Basic Rate plan. This way, if TOU is not the great deal that you thought it would be, you can cancel the program after the first year and not be out too much money.

There you have a it, a break down of EV charging cost and the TOU rates and fees on a Portland General Electric bill.

2015 Driving on Sunshine

Above you can see how much electric car driving I did (shown in blue) and how much energy our solar panels made (shown in red).

The blue line is rather straight. I tend to drive the roughly the same amount each month. The red line is the more interesting one, it represents 5.6 MWh generated on our roof in 2015. The red line is shown in miles rather than kWh. This is because we installed solar panels primarily to "fuel" our electric car driving.

This "miles" chart does not look exactly the same as it would in a kWh chart. In the winter, it takes more energy to drive a mile. The heater uses energy and the batteries don't perform as well. This means that a kWh in the winter generates fewer miles. Combine this with the fact that we generate less energy in the winter and you can see why the line is relatively flat from January through April.

The line spikes up in September because we upgraded our solar panels that month. Next year we'll generate far more energy and we should see our first 10+MWh year.

This chart follows the calendar year, but it would sure look a lot better if it started on April 1st. Then it would show plenty of net-metered solar miles waiting to be used during the low yield winter days.

This concludes our 2015 solar and EV driving energy review. I have a LOT more data, but this is the single chart that best displays how it is possible to drive on sunshine when you have solar panels and an electric car.

If you want to talk to SolarCity, you can use my referral and you'll get your first month's electricity free.

More Home Solar

New solar panels getting installed

This year we upgraded our PV system from 4kW to 12kW. In 2007, when we installed our first PV system, we paid for it mostly out-of-pocket. There were some state and local incentives, but the federal incentive was capped at $2000. This meant that we were paying tens of thousands of dollar for something that would take decades to payoff if you only look at the electricity that it generates. But people spend money on vacations or new cars that never "pay back" financially. So this was our indulgence. We felt good about doing the right thing, so we considered it money well spent. 

Our 2015 upgrade was a very different story. In 2015, we added 8.3kW to the 4kW that we already had. The new system is from SolarCity. This time we didn't buy the system, we signed a power purchase agreement. These are a great idea. Instead of paying thousands of dollar upfront, we just buy the electricity that the panels produce. We paid zero out of pocket and we are getting solar power. Now we pay SolarCity instead of our local utility for these kWhrs.

        

Most people cannot afford to spend thousands of dollars on solar panels, but nearly everyone can pay their monthly electricity bill. SolarCity allows you to have solar panels at the cost of your monthly electricity bill.

We are still on the grid and use the utility at night and in the winter. When we generate surplus on those long summer days, our meter runs backward, allowing us to use power that night or even later that year for free. This is Net Metering. Here the net metering year starts on April 1st, so we have all winter to spend any energy that we banked during the summer. Anything that we have not spent by April 1st is donated to our utility's need assistance program.

Above, I said that we pay SolarCity rather than our local utility. That's true, but the deal is a little better than that. The deal that we have with SolarCity is that we pay 9.7¢ per kWh for the 20 year life of the agreement. Currently, the standard rate from our utility is ~13¢ per kWh and it goes up (albeit a small amount) every couple of years. So we are paying less and getting solar. Also, as I discussed here having solar has allowed us to switch a time-of-use program and pay less for the electricity that we buy from the grid. So we are saving money on both the solar energy and the grid energy.

Additionally, since SolarCity owns the panels and the inverter (we just buy the power), if anything goes wrong, they fix it. On our old 2007 system the inverter died twice. It was covered under the 5 year warranty both times and the latest one seems to be holding up. However, if it goes out again, the warranty will no longer cover it and I'll have to buy a new one and pay to have it installed. Whereas if the SolarCity inverted were to die, I am buying less power from them and they are motivated to repair it quickly to recover their revenue stream and it costs me nothing.

I am generally skeptical of things like this. It sounds too good to be true. Well, the savings are not that big, it's only a few cent per kWh. And it is not too hard to believe that by generating and consuming the electricity locally avoids many of the taxes that are associated with a legacy utility company. I counted 16 adjustments to our utility bill for various programs; granted a few were credits, but most were taxes and fees. And SolarCity gets all the state, local, and federal incentives to pay for the upfront costs plus low interest loans. This reminds me of internet phone services like Ooma. They use a different model than traditional utilities and can afford to offer services cheaper.

I looked into SolarCity's business model, because I wanted to figure out if they were likely to be around for the 20 years of this service contract. While there is certainly no guarantee of this, there were two things that reassured me. First, they are a publically traded company and the market is generally bullish on the stock. Certainly there have been plenty of public companies that have pulled shenanigans, misreported, or blatantly lied (anyone remember Enron), but SEC reporting provides some level of transparency. Second, they have an insurance trust at Berkshire Hathaway to provide for the maintenance of the systems if anything should happen to the company. Additionally, the company is growing and rather than just being an installer, they are vertically integrating by getting into the financing and solar panel production aspects of the business too. This will give them more profit from each installation going forward. The nice thing about each of their installations is that it is a 20 year contract, not just a one-time sale.

If you are still reading this, you must be genuinely interested in solar. If you want to talk to SolarCity, you can use my referral and you'll get your first month's electricity free.

10,000 CHAdeMO, 1 Million EVs, & 1 Billion Tesla Miles - The Big EV Stories of 2015

2015 was a big year for electric vehicles. Here is my list of the things that mattered most for plug-in transportation in 2015. If you think I left something off the list, please let me know.

In no particular order:

• More than 100,000 plug-in car were sold in the US in 2015. With the cheap price* of gas, that's impressive. This put nearly 400,000 plug-in cars on US roadways.
• September '15 saw the One Million EVs Sold Worldwide milestone crossed  
• COP 21 put CO2 top of the world's mind. Many CO2 reduction plans came out of Paris and many of these include increasing the number of EVs on the world's roads. 
• Dieselgate, the VW scandal,  made people realize that diesel is a fossil fuel, not a green alternative.
• Tesla, LG, & BYD all break ground on battery gigafactories. 
• Grid storage battery applications were announced. This helps in multiple ways: it advances battery tech, increases the volume (lowering prices), and increases the amount of renewable energy that can be used on the grid.
• Now that some plug-ins have been out for 5 years, a real used market has emerged and there are some great deals. This will open the market to more people and to people that would only consider them as a second car. As we know, many of them will fall in love with that smooth ride.
• With CAFE increases, the gasoline tax is dying. Several states are rolling out alternatives; however, it's not clear if these are simple funding replacements, or punishments to EVs and fuel efficient car drivers. 
• Nissan offered a Leaf with a larger battery pack. This is the first step toward the promise of affordable 200+ mile EVs coming soon (Bolt, Model 3). 
• Tesla auto-pilot: an innovation breakthrough that is a big step to autonomous vehicles.
• Tesla was not bought out by Apple, Google, or anyone else. These stories were annoyingly hyped in 2015. 
• In December Nissan sold their 200,000 Leaf in worldwide sales
• The Case for a Carbon Tax: The state of Oregon specifically made progress toward establishing a carbon tax. This would do much to reduce gasoline use while simultaneously increasing the amount of renewable energy on the grid (which powers EVs and everything else that plugs in).   
• In June '15 Nissan/Renault crossed the 250,000 electric cars sold milestone.
• Tesla drivers passed 1 billion electric miles mark in December.
• Toyota launched their fuel cell car, the Mirai. This is the next step in the fight between electricity and fuel cells to be Fuel 2.0. 
• Electric cars dominated the Pikes Peak International Hill Climb, placing first and second. The elevation gain of more than 4,000 feet makes it hard for the gas cars to calibrate for the O2 intake change. EVs will soon dominate in other races (like the TT) and leave their gas-power brethren in the dust.
• According to energy.gov there are 29,627 charging outlets at 11,667 locations in the US. EV infrastructure continued to grow in 2015.
• In December of 2015, the number of CHAdeMO stations crossed the 10,000 mark for worldwide deployment.  
• CCS fast chargers finally began their proliferation in the US. They are still far behind CHAdeMO & Tesla.
• China has struggled to get EVs to sell. In 2015 they finally found the right incentives and infrastructure deployment to start ramping EV sales. BYD outsold all other manufacturers.
• Plug-in car plans were on display at the 2015 Detroit auto show. Porsche, Volvo, Audi, Ford, VW, Jaguar and others all announced big plans in 2015 for future EV growth.  

The future is going to be electric! Happy New Year.

* Cheap at the pump does not mean cheap cost when all the externalities are considered.