The American Conservative Case for Electric Vehicles (5 Reasons That Are Not The Environment)

Given the recent election results, it's very likely that there will be sweeping legislative changes in the areas of energy and environmental regulation. Regarding electric cars, it's important to make sure the baby is not tossed out with the bathwater.

The Conservative Case Against EVs (don't stop reading here)

Electric vehicles (EVs) are often touted as eco-friendly cars. This immediately casts them into the political realm of the environmentalists. This opens the door to question the actual environmental impact of "coal powered" cars with "landfill batteries." From there it is easy to dismiss EVs. They have questionable value to an environmental cause, for which a conservative might have little to no support. When government subsidies for both the cars and the infrastructure are placed on this brittle foundation, it appears to be simple government folly.

Given the above, eliminating EV subsidies seems to be a simple way to cut government spending. Simply stop funding them with tax dollars. If EVs are able to stand on their own, in a free market, that's fine, but my tax dollars should not fund them. Especially when most EV-drivers have six-figure incomes.

This reasoning above is clear and self-consistent, but reasonable minds can disagree on the environmental impacts of EVs. However, regardless of whether EVs are better, equal, or worse for the environment, they're still the right way to go (and for better reasons). So let's set the environment argument aside, and discuss the other reasons to support EVs. The reasons that conservatives support EVs.

           

It's not about the environment; there are plenty of reasons EVs are great for America.

A little about me: I served 6 years in the U.S. military, including a tour in the middle east.

In this post, I plan to show:

• EVs are great for America.
• EVs have incredible performance.
• EVs improve our national security.
• EVs will keep gasoline prices low.
• EV fueling money goes to your local community.

EVs are patriotically fueled

EVs are usually filled up at home, in the garage, overnight, from the electrical grid. The local power plant there in your community is the is the source of that energy. That means that the money that you pay to fill up an EV are dollars that are paid to a local business. This money goes to your local utility. It pays the salary for the person that reads your meter and the person repairs your power lines when a winter storm knocks the power out. These are your friends and community members. And the money you spend here gives them jobs and allows them to be productive members of your community.

           

Fueling an EV puts money in your local economy, not a foreign country's banks.

Since your electricity is locally generated, communities can make their own choices of what is important to them. Should they burn coal, should they have wind turbines leased on local farms, should they put solar panels on their roofs? These are choices that local communities can make for themselves.

           

EVs are fueled by the local grid with power plants that reflects the community's values.

EVs support American innovation

When you look at electric car makers, the clear leader is Tesla Motors. They are a Fremont, California company and they are driving innovation throughout the entire industry. They are ahead of the Germans and Japanese in internet-connected cars, self-driving, fast charging, battery technology, and battery manufacturing. Tesla designs and builds these innovative cars here in America and they are shipped around the world.

           

American companies are outpacing the Germans and Japanese in electric vehicle technology.


There is a growing worldwide market for these vehicles. It is important that American companies are not left behind in this shift.

EVs support free market choice

Before the current generation of EVs, there were few choices to fuel your personal transportation. The options were gasoline or diesel. If you were a tinkerer, you could modify a car to run on veggie oil or build your own battery powered car. For most people, converting their own car is not an option. Most people buy the car they want and drive it as it rolls off the lot.

Plug-in cars put more options on the sales floor. You can buy gas, diesel, hybrid, plug-in hybrid, or battery electric. And if the car does plug in, you can choose where you want that electricity to come from. Free market choice and personal freedom.

Depending on your local electricity cost, fueling with electricity is equivalent to about $1 per gallon. As some people move to EVs, that is fewer people buying gas, reducing the demand and allowing the remaining supply to last longer and cost less for those of us still using it.

EVs support national security

With nearly all of our transportation fuel coming from oil, we are vulnerable to attacks on supply. When pipelines are hit in Nigeria or rebels attack tankers in the Strait Of Hormuz, our oil prices here at home spike.

The electricity grid, on the other hand, is powered by coal plants, natural gas, nuclear, hydro, wind, and solar. If there are fluctuations in the any of these source fuel supplies, the mix can change to take up the slack.

The grid has had outages, but it is a redundant system. This makes it resilient to many forms of attack. When our transportation fuel is domestic, events halfway around the world will not change how much you pay to commute to work.

EVs are fun

It is called the EV grin. Often when people are behind the wheel of an EV, they get a broad smile. EVs are smooth and quiet. It's magical to be moving without the vibration and noise.

EVs have incredible performance. Electric motors have a digital response time, there's no rev up time before they go. This makes them quick off the line and these peppy cars are fun to drive. If you have not been behind the wheel of one, you should try it for this experience alone.

           

EVs are a kick to drive. No matter what side of the aisle you are on, you should try it.

EVs should have incentives (if they are the right type)

Today, there is a $7,500 federal tax incentive for new EV sales. It is important to understand that this is not a governmental largesse, it's a tax credit. This means that it can only reduce the amount of taxes that you pay. Many of us feel overtaxed. And for the taxes that we do pay, we're not sure that this money will be spent in ways that we'd approve. Well, the EV incentive is a tax credit. A non-refundable, no carryover tax credit. This means it allows you to keep more of your own money; money that you have earned. It does not, however, entitle you to a payment of money from other taxpayers. Tax credits like this are good things and we need more ways to allow people to keep their own money while advancing our economy and national interests.

The infrastructure programs that are in place are public-private partnerships. This allows the market to get a foothold and then for private businesses to own and operate the network after that. As long as this is done in such a way that the private sector is allowed to make sound investments, it can be successful. Federal infrastructure spending too often gets bogged down in mismanagement and cost overruns. So the government's role must be limited to setting goals and funding such as loan guarantees. The government cannot be involved in the project management. This avoids the problem of the projects getting stuck in the political quagmire.

           

The point of government EV infrastructure spending is to accelerate private deployment, not to have a government-owned national network.

Summary 

There are many reasons, other than the environment, to support EVs. Environmentalists might be supporting EVs for the wrong reasons, but that alone does not make them the wrong choice.

Domestic fueling, domestic design, and domestic manufacturing support the American economy. 

If you are concerned with national security, energy, and/or economic growth, then EVs are a crucial component of all of these issues. This topic is as bipartisan as they come, and there is no longer any excuse not to support it. And if they happen to keep our cities' air pure along the way, that's a free bonus.

Footnote: This post was inspired by ideas from "How to Reach Across the Political Divide" by Robb Willer 

EV Charging Tips and Tricks

In an earlier post, we covered the basics of public EV charging. That article covered the types of charge ports, charging networks, and how to find public charging spots. In this post, we'll dive into the next stage of EV charging in the wild.

Public charging infrastructure is an all too rare commodity. When you are charging at a public station, the first rule is to be considerate of your fellow plug-in vehicle drivers. You must understand that you are in a shared space and you should be careful not to abuse it.

Don't be an ICEhole (or an EVhole)

If you want to upset the EV community, just park in a charging spot and don't plug in. If you park an internal combustion engine (ICE) car in a charging spot, you are an ICEhole. Similarly, if you are driving an EV and 'forget' to plug in, wait hours after the car is full before you move it, or otherwise abuse this precious commodity, then you may be labeled an EVhole. There are facebook pages dedicated to shaming ICEholes and EVholes.

Tesla community was outraged after Model X spotted occupying three Supercharger stalls

To avoid appearing on these pages, only park in charging spots when you are actively charging.

If you are charging for less than 30 minutes, try to stay with your car so you can unplug and move along quickly to free up that space for someone else.

If you do need to leave the vehicle, put an EV Card on the dash. This will let people know if they can unplug your car or not and how to contact you if they need you to move your car. Be a part of the community.

Lagom Charging Method

When you take a gas powered car to the gas station, you are likely to fill'er-up. EV charging is a different paradigm. When you are charging at home, there is no one waiting for your charging spot and you are in your home, eating dinner, sleeping, and doing whatever else it is that you do. When you are charging in a public charging station, it's not like a gas station, your goal is not to fill'er up. Instead, your goal should be "Lagom".

Lagom is a Swedish word that means "just the right amount". The Lagom charging method means, when you are at a public charging station, that you charge enough to get to your next destination plus a little extra cushion so you can get there comfortably if you have to take a detour. This has multiple advantages. EVs charge slower as the batteries approach full. If you don't need the range, there is no need to tolerate the slower rate. This means that you are not spending more of your time parked than you need to. It means that you clear up the spot for someone else.

Know Where Your Next Outlet Is

If your next destination is home, you know you have a place to charge waiting for you. However, if your next stop is another public charging spot, well, some of them are more reliable than others. After you have been using public charging for awhile, you learn which stations are more likely to be busted. You don't want to learn this by pulling up to a station just as your battery hits E to find it broken down.

To help avoid this, use the PlugShare smartphone app and look at the recent check-ins. If the station was successfully used recently, it is likely working fine.

Some places, like Electric Avenue, have multiple charging stations. If one is out-of-order, or occupied, you can just go to the next stall and charge up there. However, if the place you are heading is not your house and it only has one fast charger, you'll want to have a plan B. So even if you are Lagom charging, make sure you have enough to get to a plan B charging location.

And now that you have PlugShare on your phone, when you are charging up, be sure to check-in and let others know the state of the charging station you're using.

The 14th Amendment for Charging 

All plug-in vehicles have the right to use the plug-in infrastructure. You may occasionally find someone that thinks that you should move your car because they deserve it more than you. Like the image on the right, they think that a plug-in hybrid should move for a battery electric, or that a long range EV, like a Tesla, should move for a shorter range EV.

I disagree with this idea. If you have a car that plugs in and you joined the charging network, you have a right to use the network. If you have a plug-in hybrid, but you prefer to charge up and drive on electricity, rather than gas, you have the right to charge up.

Now, if you are in a plug-in hybrid and someone in an EV asks you nicely to let them charge up because they need to charge up to get home, feel free to let them have the spot. But don't think you have to move because they have more of a right to it than you do.

Don't Be Entitled 

If you are driving an EV, you are not single-handedly saving the world. Yes, you are doing a good thing but this does not entitle you to park in ADA access ramp zones.

Illegally parked EV

Occasionally, you might need to get creative to find a way to charge up. When you do, make sure you are not creating a menace. If you have to park unusually, make sure you do it without blocking foot-traffic. If you have to run an extension cord, make sure you don't create a tripping hazard. If the extension cord has to cross a sidewalk, make sure you have a non-slip safety rug to lay over it. You can pick one up at Home Depot for less than $10.

Wrap-up 

Part 1 talked about joining a network and finding charging stations. In this, part 2 post, we covered being a positive part of the EV community. I hope you found this useful. If you know someone that has recently joined our EV community, please share this with them.

How to Charge an Electric Car (EV)

Welcome to EV Charging 101: A Public EV Charging How To 

Electric vehicle ownership is continuing to grow. 1 Million plug-in cars were on the world's roads as of 2015. Plug In America estimates that there are currently nearly half a million plug-in cars on US roadways. The upcoming Tesla Model 3 and Chevy Bolt will continue this trend and we are likely to see 1 million PEVs on US roads during 2018. With all of these EV sales, there will be many new owners that have never used public charging infrastructure.

When you are charging at home it is as easy as: open the charging port, plug in, and smile. Dealing with public infrastructure can be a little more difficult. This article is intended to educate plug-in vehicle owners, newbies and veterans alike, about plugging in when you are out and about.

If you want to charge at a charging stations in the wild, there are a few things that you'll need to know: the type of charging station, where to find it, what (if any) membership card you'll need to access it.

Know Your Car's Charging Port(s)

This all starts by knowing what kind of connector(s) your car has. The types of ports will determine what types of charging stations you can use. Unfortunately, there is not one unified connector for all EVs. There are connectors for AC, connectors for DC fast charging, and some that can do both.

For AC charging, modern EVs use the J1772 (jay-seventeen-seventy-two) plug. This port is standard on most EVs. The big exception is Tesla, they have a proprietary inlet port, but they have a J1772 adapter. Many of the public charging stations are J1772.

SAE J1772 Plug and socket/inlet

Depending on the power source and your vehicle, these give you from 5 miles to 30 miles of range per hour that you are plugged into them. These types of charging stations are good for overnight charging and workplace charging where the vehicle will be parked for several hours, but they are not generally useful for a cross country trek.

For long distance drives, you need DC Fast Charging (DCFC). Depending on the station and your car, these can get you from 80 miles of range per hour up to 170 miles of range per hour. There are three primary types of DCFC: CHAdeMO, SAE Combined Charging Standard (CCS), and Tesla Superchargers.

CHAdeMO (left) and CCS (right)

CHAdeMO is generally supported by Japanese manufacturers such as Nissan, Kia, and Mitsubishi.
CCS is generally supported by German and US manufacturers such as BMW, VW, GM, and Ford.
Tesla Model S/X vehicles, of course, use the Tesla Superchargers. You can also buy an adapter to allow a Tesla to charge at CHAdeMO stations and Tesla has promised a CCS adapter soon.

You need to know which type (if any) of DC fast charging your vehicle supports. For some make/models, the base package does not include DC fast charging and plug-in hybrids usually don't have a DCFC option.

There are some charging stations that support both CHAdeMO and CCS. It is important that you know which DCFC your vehicle supports. If you coast up to the wrong one with a flat battery, it will not be able to charge your car.

Know Your Networks

There are multiple EV charging networks. You need to know which one(s) are in your travel realms and which one(s) work with your car.

Here are a some of the more common networks: Aerovironment, Blink, ChargePoint, nrg, and Tesla.

Charging Station Membership Cards

Tesla charging is a special case; we'll come back to them. Let's look at the others first. These networks require membership to access them. Find out which ones are in your area (more on this in the next section) and join those networks.

Tesla has two charging networks. The first is the Supercharger network, these are fast charge stations that can supply up to 170 miles of range in 30 minutes. No membership is required, other than owning a Tesla. These stations only work with post-Roadster Tesla vehicles (i.e., Model S, Model X, and soon Model 3). The second Tesla network is the Destination Charging network. These are generally at hotels, restaurants and shopping centers. They often include both Tesla wall chargers and Level 2 J1772 from other vendors. These may or may not be free. Hotel sites, for example, may only allow guests to use these stations.

Where Are The Charging Stations?

Here we are in step three. In step one, you figured out what types of charging stations your car supports. In step two, you joined your local (or planned travel route) charging networks. Now, to find the stations.

Some EVs have charging station locations in their nav system. This is handy but it may not include real-time availability information. Unless you have an internet connected car (like a Tesla), then you'll need to use a smartphone app like PlugShare for real-time info.

When you are planning a trip and you know you'll need to make a charging stop, it is very helpful to look these stations up on PlugShare see if they have been used recently and what, if any, notes others have left. These checks and notes are very useful. They will let you know if a station has been used recently and if it is operational. If it is down, you can make other plans.

Tip: when possible, go to a "charging cluster" such as Electric Avenue. Clusters have multiple charging stations. If one of the stations is non-operational or occupied, you can just pull into another stall.

Guerrilla Charging 

Occasionally, you may be traveling to regions that apparently have never heard of electric vehicles. Even in these areas, you may be able to charge with little or no problems. With the right adapter, nearly any electric outlet will do.

Guerrilla EV charging kit

Nearly any US campground with RV hook-up spots will have NEMA 14-50 outlets. These are 240V outlets and will get you 25 to 30 miles of range for each hour that you're plugged in there. In is not the 150 MPH of a DCFC, but if you only need another 50 miles to get to your destination, it can be a nice stop to explore a part of the world you would have previously just driven through.

Depending on how long you are planning on plugging in, many of these locations will allow you to charge for a small fee, whereas others may require you to pay the full overnight space fee. Be charming (not entitled) and you might be surprised that people can be very friendly. An EV is still a novelty and conversation starter in many places.

If you plan on stopping at a BNB on your EV trek, call ahead and ask about plugging in. A simple 120V outlet can provide you with 50 miles of range when plugged in for a 10 hour overnight stay. If you are lucky, they may even have a 240V dryer outlet that you could use to charge even faster.

Wrap Up

There you have the basics and a couple advanced tips. Find the follow up with EV charging tips and tricks here. I'll even explain what that green card below is all about. If you have any related questions, leave a comment below and I'll try to help.

Tesla Model 3 Will Have Half The Battery Cells Of Model S [Updated]

18650 compared to a 20700, both 3D printed. 1:18th Scale Diecast Model S for scale - photo via Aaron Cocker 

Back in May, I wrote a story that said the Tesla Model 3 would have half the number of battery cells of the Tesla Model S. This was based on many assumptions. Some of these assumptions have now been clarified.

During the 2016 Annual Shareholder Meeting, at the 1 hour, 48 minute mark, Elon Musk and JB Straubel talk about the motivations to build the Gigafactory and the innovations that they are putting into both the batteries and the factory itself.

Elon Musk confirmed that the battery cells made at the Gigafactory will be bigger than the standard 18650. He also gave a precise size. Tesla's battery will be 20mm in diameter and 70mm in height. The 18650 is so named because it is 18 mm in diameter by 65 mm height. Using the same naming convention, the new Tesla battery cell would be a 20700 battery cell.

18650 compared to 20700 via Seeking Alpha

This new cell will have 33% more volume than the old cell.

Elon clarified that Tesla does not use commodity laptop 18650 cells. They have been using cells specifically designed for their needs for some time now. It just so happens that they have continued to package these in the same 18650 form factor.

This change in size to 20700 was based on a first principles analysis. This new size allows for increased energy per cell while still allowing for thermal management and fire control within the pack.

On a related note, Quartz reports that Tesla has hired Jeff Dahn, a leading battery researcher who teaches at Dalhousie University in Nova Scotia. Dahn is tasked with doing “whatever it takes” to improve the company’s battery performance.

        

Tesla Model 3 will use a larger 20700 cell with a better chemistry than the current Model S.

JB has previously stated that the Model 3 battery will be "next generation." Battery cells have been improving about 5 to 7 percent each year. Compounded over several years, this adds up.

How Many Cells?

The original article assumed the new cell would be 20% bigger in each dimension. With such a size increase, it was easy to have half the number of cells. That is, however, not correct. The increase is ~10% in each dimension. Given this update, let's guess at how many of the new 20700 cells will be in the Model 3.

According to teslamotors.wiki, there are 7,104 cells (16 modules of 444 cells) in Model S. For Model 3, we'll be able to reduce that number with several factors. First, as discussed above, the Model 3 will use a larger cell. Second, the Model 3 will be smaller, lighter, and more aerodynamic. Third is the range, the base Model 3 will not go as far as the base Model S. The final factor is the battery chemistry will be one or two generations ahead of the 2015 chemistry that is in the Model S and X today. Let's look at each of these in detail.

The first one is easy, the cells are 33% larger. This means a 25% reduction in the number of cells needed for a given energy level. (75%)

The second item is the smaller, lighter, and more aerodynamic Model 3. The final specs for the Model 3 are not released yet, but we'll make an assumption and update this as data is available. Model S has an energy efficiency of 89 MPGe. Looking at other EVs we can guess at Model 3's efficiency. Looking at two examples, the 2016 Leaf has a 114 MPGe rating and the BMW i3 has a 124 MPGe rating. Neither of these carry as large of a battery pack as Model 3 will, but Model 3 will be more aerodynamic than either of these. So, assuming Model 3 will be in this range, that would be a 70 to 80% reduction in needed capacity. (75%)

The third factor is range. The only range known today about Model 3 is that the base model will be at least 215 miles. Assuming Tesla follows the Model S offerings, there would be one battery pack upgrade option, a dual motor upgrade, and performance options. Since we only have an idea about the base model, let's compare the base option 215 miles (worst case) to the base Model S 70. Model 3's 215 mile range is 92% of the 234 mile range of the Model S 70. (92%)

The final factor is the battery technology improvements. The Model S 90 kWh pack was first offered in July of 2015. The Model 3 is expected to start shipping in the 4th quarter of 2017. Battery advancements happen in fits and starts, there is no telling what, if any, improvements there will be above and beyond the July 2015 offering, but let's just take the trend on face value and assume a 5% improvement. (95%)

Putting these factors together and we have an estimate of ~50% of the cells of Model S. That is approximately 3550 of the new 20700 cells in Model 3. This is more than the previous estimate, but still less than half of the 7104 cells in the current Model S / X.

        

Tesla Model 3 will have approximately 3550 battery cells.

Is There Enough Lithium?

During the Tesla 2016 Annual Shareholder Meeting someone asked if Tesla had enough Lithium to do all the things they envision for vehicles and energy storage.

This is a common question when people first consider EVs. They are concerned that the world would be moving from peak-oil to peak-Lithium.

Elon Musk clarified that Lithium supply is in no way a limiting factor to any of Tesla's goals.

Lithium is not rare. It is the 3rd most common element in the universe. The first is hydrogen, but it is bound-up in water (or hydrocarbons) and difficult to separate. Helium is the second, but here on Earth, unless contained, it floats away. Lithium does not float away. It is often bound to salt and this is easy to separate. Lithium supplies are abundant and prices are low and stable.

Even if Lithium were rare and expensive it would not greatly impact Li-ion battery prices. Lithium is only about 2% of the volume of a Li-ion battery cell. Elon called Lithium "the salt on the salad."

Elon and JB noted that it would be more accurate to refer to their batteries as Nickel-Graphite (with Silicon-Oxide).
Ω

5 Years of Nissan Leaf Driving

In 2011, I received one of only 9,655 Nissan Leafs delivered to the U.S.  My car left Japan less than a day before the Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami devastated the island nation.

When the car arrived, I was in love. It was peppy, smooth, and quiet. It had enough range for nearly all of my driving.

May 18th 2011 - The day I picked up my Nissan Leaf

        ♬

The five years we've had have been such good times.

I was lucky that Oregon was aggressively installing EV charging infrastructure. This let me take my car on adventures all around the state. A charging station in my garage filled it up every night and I could charge at work too. This made EV ownership a breeze. Most days, I only charged in my own garage, but knowing that all those stations were there if I needed them, made it comfortable to drive around and take detours as I like.

I was an active reader of the EV forums and news. There were people reporting various types of problems. Range degradation, 12V battery problems, paint issues... I was lucky that none of these problems were impacting me.

4100 Plug Ins

Here are the stats for these five years of Leaf driving: 44,000 miles, 4100 charging events, 44 quick charges. There are Leafs out there with over 100,000 miles on them. Mine is not one of them, it was/is primarily a commuter car.

5 Years of Battery/Range Degradation

After a couple years of ownership, people in Arizona and southern California started complaining of excessive battery degradation. The weather here in Oregon is much more battery-friendly (reason #6), but I was interested to see how the batteries performed as they aged.

        

How have the batteries of the Nissan Leaf held up after 5 years?

There are two simple ways and to gauge the battery health and one more difficult (but more accurate) method.

The first method is the Capacity Bars. There are 12 small marks just to the right of the "fuel gauge". These are the battery health indicators. The top bar (or 12th bar) turns off when the battery has lost 15% capacity. Bars 11 - 4 each represents 6.25% of capacity. This is an easy way to see the battery health, but it is a course measure. Currently, my car is at 80% capacity and it still has 11 bars.

The second method of determining range is to charge the car fully and to look at the range meter (referred to as the guess-o-meter (GOM) by many Leaf drivers). This is not a very accurate method since the value depends on how you have been driving the car recently. This means the results are not consistent or reproducible. Here are three snapshots of the range meter starting with the car when it was new, to one that I snapped just after the 5 year mark.

2011 Nissan Leaf Fuel Gauge, Fully Charged: New (left), 3 years old (center), and 5 years old (right) 

I should point out that even though you see 118 miles reported when the car was new, I was never have been able to achieve such a range. Even the 69 miles that the GOM reports today is optimistic; as you'll see with the final method below, the range is less than 60 miles.

The 3rd and most accurate method is to use Leaf Spy. I found this tool just after having the car for 2 years. Since then I have been logging readings and made the chart below of the battery pack's performance. 

Let's unpack this graph. The blue line is measured range. You can see how there are seasonal changes with the weather. The red line is just a normalized version of the blue line. Removing the seasonal noise gives you a clear view that the capacity degradation is slowing. In the first year, the range dropped by about 4 miles. In the last year (4 to 5), however, there was less than 2 miles of range lost.

The yellow line is the average of all the vehicles that have been self-reporting on MyNissanLeaf. My car is doing much better than this average. This is most likely due to the lowish miles and the mild climate.

It's nice to see the degradation slowing, but it is accumulating. This has meant that we are now using the fast chargers more than we were previously. I am concerned that this could accelerate the degradation. We'll see.

I should note that this is just one example. Additionally, Nissan improved the Leaf battery chemistry in 2015 (known as the Lizard Battery). This new battery could have a different degradation curve.

Looking To Year 6

The Nissan Leaf has a telematics system called NissanConnectEV (formerly known as CarWings). The app lets you check the state-of-charge and turn on the HVAC. The status updates for this telematics app are over-the-air. The list of charging stations in the car's nav system is also updated over-the-air. The car uses the AT&T 2G network for these data transfers. The 2G network is scheduled to be shutdown. The 2G shutdown date has been delayed multiple times. It is currently scheduled for the end of 2016 and AT&T seems serious about keeping to the date this time. When the shutdown occurs, my car (and all the 2011 through 2015 Leafs) will need to be updated to a 3G or 4G modem.

I'm not sure how much this 3G/4G upgrade will cost. I rarely use CarWings, so I am not willing to pay much for the upgrade. Nissan has said that cost information will be available in "late summer of 2016." This is something that I'll have to deal with in year six.

Why People Love Tesla - The Power Of The Pure Play

"I am not interested in picking up crumbs of compassion thrown from the table of someone who considers himself my master. I want the full menu of rights." Desmond Tutu

Tesla is now taking preorders for the Model 3 and ~400,000 people have put down $1000 to raise their hand and get one. In their latest ad campaign, Nissan is hoping to take advantage of this outpouring EV-love and persuade a few people to buy a Nissan Leaf today, even if they are planning on getting a Model 3 in 2018.

This is not a bad plan. I plan on driving my Leaf until it is traded in on a Model 3. I hope more people start driving EVs soon and that our community grows, but Nissan's ad was still a jab at Tesla.

GM too has taken jabs at Tesla saying that they don't need $1000 pre-order funds to build a car.

It's true that the Leaf is for sale now and that the Chevy Bolt will be out before Model 3 and you don't need to put down $1000 (and wait 18+ months) to get a Chevy Bolt. So why aren't there ~400,000 people lining up at 6AM to get Leafs and Bolts?

Is it the rockstar CEO quality of Elon Musk? Maybe. He has been compared to Steve Jobs, Thomas Edison, and even Iron Man's Tony Stark.

Is it the car's cool tech like the 17" touchscreen and cars that can drive themselves? Maybe.

Is it the vast free-for-life, solar-powered EV charging network available only to Tesla drivers? Maybe.

All of the above carry some weight and have been discussed many times over. I'd like to propose another idea. In the opening, there is a quote from Desmond Tutu. (sidebar: I am not trying to equate the first world problem of 'which car should I buy?' to the South African human rights struggle.) This quote speaks to a part of the human nature that wants to be treated fairly; it speaks to knowing that we matter. Let me be clear, Desmond Tutu was talking about something far more important. No one wants to be treated like a second class citizen.

        

If you are buying an EV from a traditional car company (Nissan, GM, Ford...), you are likely to be treated like a second class citizen at some point.


If you read EV forums, you'll find story after story of people that go to a dealership to buy an EV and the sales guy directs them towards a gas car. The salesman talks about all the "problems" with EVs. If you manage to fight through this and you do get an EV, then 3 months later you get a free oil change coupon in the mail.

Even with EVs on salesroom floors and better EV projects in the works, the traditional car companies and dealerships make the vast majority of their money from gas cars and gas cars will continue to be their primary focus for many many years.

The perfect example of this was in January '16 when GM CEO Mary Barra said, "We are not actively working on providing [recharging] infrastructure." For EVs to be successful, you need a coast to coast highspeed recharging infrastructure. But the traditional car companies are not all-in on EVs, so it does not matter to them if EVs are successful, or just a small volume market niche. Tesla, on the other-hand, has built a vast worldwide recharging network and they are continuing to grow it.

Why Tesla?

If being a pure play is all that it takes, then this devotion would flow to any EV start-up and maybe some aspects of it do, but Tesla earns its vast following and devoted fans because it has a complete package. Their products are not a compromise. They are not doing it because a government regulation requires it. Their cars are not something that is a modified version of a gas car with the minimum number of changes required to make it work. Tesla has purpose. It is a movement, not a product. And they have all the things listed above: the cool tech, the future vision, the vast, free-for-life, solar powered recharging infrastructure, and yes, the rocket man CEO.

5 Suggestions for a Better EV Incentive

In 2015, more than 17 million vehicles were sold in the U.S.  Of these, 114 thousand of them were cars with cords. That means plug-in cars were less than 1% of new vehicle sales. Specifically, they made up just 0.655%.

As much as we hear about electric cars discussed in the media, they still have a long way to go before they are the main mode of personal transportation. Certainly, I'd like to see EVs go mainstream and the wave of affordable long-range EVs that are coming out in 2017 will help greatly in this endeavor, but even if these are a smash hit, it will take years to make a dent in the massive number of cars that are already on the road.

Crawl, Walk, Run. I get it. The growth trend is there, but it will take a while. If I were investing, I'd rather be on the side with a small and growing market than the one with a large but shrinking market.

So how do you accelerate the growth? Incentives. There would undoubtedly be significantly fewer EVs on U.S. roadways today without the $7,500 Federal tax incentive. Depending on how big of a battery pack a plug-in vehicle has, it can qualify for from $2,500 to the full $7,500 incentive.

The point of this incentive is to encourage sales of these vehicles and it has done a great job so far. However, now that the incentive has been in use for several years, we are able to better understand how it could be better and the impending failure that it has coming.

Incentives? Who Needs Incentives? 

One could argue that plug-in cars, or any product, should stand on its own and that incentives are a waste of government (taxpayer) funds. Since I am writing this on April 18th and recently wrote a big check to Uncle Sam, I can agree with the sentiment. However, I will make a brief case for the plug-in car incentive.

Our government has a responsibility to maintain clean air and they have a responsibility to make sure that we have the energy we need to maintain, if not grow, our economy. EVs help meet both of these goals. And they do it without the need to deploy troops to desert wastelands or send destroyers to guard the Strait of Hormuz.

How do EVs help with these goals? The Union of Concerned Scientist report clearly shows that, cradle to grave, even with the partially coal-powered grid that we have today, EVs produce fewer emissions than gas cars. As coal plants across the country continue to shut down and wind turbines continue to go up, plug-in cars will continue to get greener.

The energy needed to power these cars can be generated right here in the U.S.. Energy storage solutions are experiencing a technological boom whether it's advanced battery tech or simple pumped hydroelectric storage, there are ways to store the intermittent energy that renewable generation often creates. This gives us a home-grown energy supply.

Additionally, gas cars are heavily subsidized every time they fill up at the gas pump. The price per gallon is far from the true cost that is paid for that fuel. There are environmental, health, and security costs associated with every gallon supplied and burned. It has been estimated that gas cars receive more than $12,000 in fueling cost incentives over a typical vehicle lifespan.

So, the case for EV incentives is that they help meet environmental, health, and security goals while reducing the future costs for the same and all of this with an incentive that is smaller than the lifetime fuel subsidies that a gas car receives.

What's Wrong With The Current Incentive?

The current EV incentive has a few problems. I first touched on this topic in February, near the end of this article.

As mentioned in the opening of this article, plug-in cars are currently only a fraction of one percent of new vehicle sales. Despite this fact, Tesla Motors already has to start dealing with end-of-incentive logistics for their customers and GM is not too far behind. This is exactly the opposite of what's needed. The automakers that are successfully putting plug-in cars on the road are ones that will have their funds cut off first. That is because the current system starts to phase out incentives by automaker 3 to 6 months after their 200,000th plug-in vehicle has shipped.

The current system is a tax credit. This means that you won't see the money until you file your taxes. Most people finance their car purchases. This means that it would be much better for them if the incentive could be used to increase the down payment and reduce the monthly car payment.

The tax credit system is also a problem for retirees. Many of them do not have an income, but that does not preclude them from having saving and occasionally buying a new car. Today, many of them work around this by first leasing the car (allowing the lessor bank to take the tax credit) and then buying out the lease. This does not reduce the number of incentives that are paid out and it unnecessarily inserts a middleman.

A Better EV Incentive 

If the law were to be revamped, how could it be better? A couple of ideas that I've heard are:

1) Make it a point-of-sale incentive instead of a tax rebate
This would solve the "wait until you've done your taxes" problem. It would also help retired folks that are often not even filing taxes.

2) Make it $10k, instead of $7,500
This one is straight forward. A bigger incentive will accelerate things even faster. We certainly saw this in Georgia when they had a $5,000 incentive on top of the federal $7,500 incentive. This launched the unexpected state onto the list of top 5 states with plug-in sales.

Additionally, I think other changes are needed:

1) The limit should not be per manufacturer.
The current system penalizes the companies that are early to embrace and promote the technology. If the goal is to have more EVs on the road, then it should not matter which manufacturer makes them. Let the market/buyers decide which vehicles they want on a level playing field. Auto manufacturers that are currently sitting on their hands know that (with the current system) their 200,000 cars are waiting for them and that they can use it later to make cars that will be even more profitable after the innovators have broken down the barriers. This removes the needed sense of urgency. In fact, it may even encourage omphaloskepsis.

2) The limit should not be some arbitrary number of vehicles sold, rather it should be in place until 2% of all new vehicles are PEV.
Why 2%? Hybrids have been in the 2%-4% of the market for years now. This is enough of a sales volume to have an ongoing market. Let me be clear, I think PEVs will continue to grow far beyond this level, but there's no way that *any* incentives should be stopped before this level of sales volume is achieved.

3) The incentive should go down 15% per year after hitting the 2% mark.
The current system has a 50% reduction. That is a big drop. Under the current system, if you miss an end of quarter delivery date by a day, it could cost you $3,750. Smaller steps at an annual rate is a smooth transition (soft landing) to the incentive-free market.

Summary 

Here are five purposed improvements to the federal plug-in vehicle incentive. This incentive is important. It helps us, as a country, achieve many of our important goals. The current system has been in place since 2009 and it is in need of an update. The needed changes are relatively minor and can have a great impact. These changes would help people making car payments as well as retired car buyers.

Tesla Gave Me a Model 3

Tesla has given me money directly and I have made money by investing in them. Now I am giving all of this back to them in exchange for a Model 3.

$1000 Reservation Deposit

When Tesla launched the Powerwall in 2015, I watched the reveal like many others. At the end of the presentation a screen popped up and asked if I wanted to sign up for more information about the Powerwall. Yes, yes I did. After the name, email address, etc., there was a little checkbox that asked if I was interested in solar energy. If you've read this blog much, you'll know that solar is one of my interests, so, of course, I checked the box.

Soon I was contacted by Tesla and they asked if I was interested in talking to someone from SolarCity about solar and potentially a Powerwall. I agreed. Long story short, we had an 8.3 kW solar array installed (but no Powerwall). Soon after the installation was complete, a check from Tesla showed up. It was for $1000. Alright, I didn't even know that was part of the deal. It was a nice surprise.

Six months later, when Tesla announced the Model 3, I gave Tesla $1000 as a reservation deposit. This was the same amount Tesla had given me.

Buying A Tesla Model 3

In 2010, Tesla Motors IPOed. They started trading stock in their company on the public market. I had seen and even test driven the Roadster. It was an incredible machine. It was a reinvention of driving. I was amazed at how responsive it was. I would just think of accelerating and we were moving. I swear I had not even moved my foot yet. The same was true with the tight sports car steering.

So when they IPOed, I read the "Secret Master Plan" and several of their whitepapers on energy efficiency. I didn't know if they were going to be the next in a long sting of EV car companies that would go bankrupt, or if they were going to be the game changing company. But I did know, there would be no middle ground and I was going to buy at least a few shares. I bought a few shares on June 29th, 2010 for $17.84 per share and I started watching the stock. It was slowly going up. On July 6th I bought more. This time at $18 per share. The next day the price dropped some to $16.01. I decided this was a bargain price and I bought my final lot.

Then I sat back and promptly ignored the stock. That's right. I stopped watching it all together. I didn't buy much. Each of these purchases were very small. If the stock went to zero. I had a tax write-off. And I knew that was a real possibility. I bought only enough that I would not worry about it. Individual stock like this, can be very volatile. One news article or car fire and the stock makes huge moves. I didn't want to be on that emotional rollercoaster that causes the wrong move. This is one of the rare cases where ignorance can out performance diligent mindfulness.

Now I am looking at the stock again. And to be fair, I did peek at it now and then. As I write this, the stock is at $265 per share. That is up 1,400% from where I purchased it in 2010. It's nearly enough to pay for my Model 3. I wish I had bought more, I might get a Model X too :)

Chevy Bolt & Tesla Model 3, The 1-2 Punch That Kills Fuel Cell Vehicles

The Chevrolet Bolt and the Tesla Model 3 are oft squared off as rivals. You can find this head to head square-off in story after story (and even this blog). Both are 200+ mile range EVs and both are in the ~$30K price range. But there is another foe that these two have in common and that is fuel cell vehicles. If fuel cell vehicles are the future of transportation, then Tesla, GM, and others are wasting their efforts on battery powered vehicles.

Honda, Toyota, and others are betting heavily on fuel cell vehicles (FCV).

2017 Honda Clarity FCV rendering

To see how these technologies will square off we'll look at infrastructure, cost, and consumer acceptance.

Comparing Infrastructure

We have detailed the problems with FCVs here, but the simple truth is that FC passenger vehicles require a vast, expensive hydrogen refueling infrastructure that does not exist.

Plug-in vehicles require infrastructure too, but recharging can be done from any outlet, the very same ones that we use to recharge our phones and computers. Overnight charging in your own garage means that you can start out each day with a "full tank" and you don't have to detour to a filling station.

The one advantage that FCVs can tout over EVs is refilling time. That is, if you can find an hydrogen (H2) filling station. Fast refill time is a great component for long distance driving. However, the few H2 filling stations that we do have in the U.S. are primarily in California. This currently makes the FCVs a regional vehicle, despite their range and refueling speed. You can drive a FCV from L.A. to San Diego and back, but there is no refilling available to make a coast to coast trip.

        

You can drive a FCV from LA to San Diego and back, but forget about driving from LA to NYC.

Comparing Cost

The Toyota Mirai currently sells for $57,500. The Honda's FCV is expected to have a similar ~$60k price tag. The Chevy Bolt is expected to cost $37,500 before $7,500 federal incentive price and Tesla says the Model 3 will be $35,000 before the federal incentive.

H2 filling for the first two years of FCV ownership is currently free. After that, it is not clear how much it will cost. The current estimates available, when broken down as price per mile, are that H2 will cost approximately the equivalent to $6 per gallon gasoline.

Driving on electricity, depending on your local utility rates, it costs about the same as $1 per gallon gasoline.

        

Fuel cell vehicles are twice the cost to purchase and 6 times the cost to fuel.

Customer Acceptance 

Both battery electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles offer smooth rides and great acceleration driven by electric motors, both can be 'fueled' from renewable resources. Despite these similarities, they have had very different acceptance in the alt fuel community.

Given the small region that actually has H2 filling stations, there are not many places that currently sell FCVs. This has significantly reduced the number of potential customers for FCVs. In contrast, EVs are currently sold around the world. And the Chevy/Opel Bolt and Tesla Model 3 will be sold worldwide.

Additionally, Toyota's marketing has specifically attacked battery electric vehicles. This, and other events, has divide the community into two camps. Many of the customers that are early adopters of alt fuel vehicles are now adamantly opposed to fuel cell vehicles. Without an enthusiastic group of early adopters, you can not move to the mass adoption stage.

        

Fuel cell vehicles don't have the enthusiastic following that is needed to move to beyond a niche market.

Summary

The Chevy Bolt and Tesla Model 3 will coming out and competing with the Toyota Mirai and Honda Clarity FCV.

The Chevy Bolt and Tesla Model 3 will be affordable long range electric vehicles. These two vehicles, and the fast followers like them, will bring new customers to the EV market. These will be customers that were not comfortable with the ~100 mile range EVs and those that could not afford the more expensive Tesla Model S.

The FCVs will be twice the price with a fraction of the locations to refuel. This will leave cars like the Toyota Mirai and Honda Clarity FCV with no significant number of prospective customers.

The affordable 200+ mile EV could be what is finally needed to bring an end to idea that passenger cars are the right segment to first deploy FCVs.

Vehicle Type	Vehicle Cost	Range (miles)	Fuel Cost eqv	Refueling Time
Battery Electric	~$30,000	200-250	~$1 per gallon	30 min to 80%
Fuel Cell	~$60,000	300-400	~$6 per gallon	5-10 minutes

Table 1 - Battery Electric and Fuel Cell Vehicle Comparison