Mental "Glitches" Slowing EV Sales (part 1)

Plug-in cars are finally here. The Nissan Leaf and Chevy Volt have been on sale since December of 2010. New plug-in vehicle models are coming out each year. Plug-in car sales are growing at an exponential rate but they are still only a small fraction of total vehicle sales.

The plug-in cars that were leased or put into fleet service in '11 and '12 are now showing up on the used market at very good prices.

If plug-in cars are available, cheaper to "fuel", and are better for the environment; why are they still a small part of total vehicle sales? What is it that would prevent someone from buying a plug-in vehicle next time they are in the market for a new car?

The human mind is an incredible and powerful thing capable of 10¹⁶ processes per second, but it is flawed in several ways. We all have cognitive biases and employ logical fallacies. These are mental shortcuts that allow us to arrive at conclusions faster than we would if we had to reason everything out from first principles every time we need to make a choice. Each of us make thousands of choices during a typical day. Many of these are made on "autopilot" with little or no thought. Our mental shortcuts are great if they get us to the right place; however, when they lead us astray, they are mental glitches that must be reexamined.

Applying to this to our topic, we'll explore what cognitive biases could be preventing the mass adoption of plug-in cars.

Cognitive Dissonance

Number one on the list is Cognitive Dissonance. It is the discomfort felt when someone holds two or more contradictory behaviors, beliefs, or ideas. Put simply, your brain wants consistency in your actions and beliefs. People in the throes of cognitive dissonance, have a driving need to reduced or resolve the inconsistency. To avoid this discomfort, your mind will go to great lengths to justify, rationalize, or at least minimize any inconsistency.

In dealing with these inconsistencies your brain can be ingenious. Cognitive dissonance is number one on the list because many of the other cognitive biases are employed to appease or reduce the discomfort.

Most people don't want to pollute, encourage global conflict, increase national debt, or fund terrorism. Using gasoline is correlated to all of these. Yet most people also want the convenience of fast fill-ups, doing what they already know, while buying cheap cars. This creates a cognitive dissonance for many people on the roads today.

To address this fuel pump dissonance, our minds employ many tricks. We'll explore several of them in the posts that follow.


(Part 2 - Status Quo) Mental "Glitches" Are Slowing EV Sales 

About this series

I have just read over my first draft of this article and I see that it could all too easily be interpreted as "If you are not driving a plug-in car, you have a mental glitch." While many of the PEV-driving readers of this blog may agree with that tactless statement, that is NOT what I am trying to say.

Rather, this is an examination of many of the perception obstacles that PEVs must overcome before they can be mass market vehicles. This information is intended to be useful to anyone advocating or marketing plug-in vehicles.

The B-Class gets a D Grade

I recently went to my local Mercedes-Benz dealer to try out the new B-Class Electric Drive. I had called a couple days before and found out that they had one test drive unit in stock and 15 more cars were coming soon. Twelve of those 15 were already sold. When I arrived, I was warmly greeted and a salesman quickly came up and said that we could go for a spin. We stepped out and he brought the car out from the service area where it was plugged in. He hopped out and gave me the driver's seat.

Before mashing the accelerator (don't call it a gas pedal) and taking off, I wanted get to know the inside of the car. The first thing I wanted to see was if the navigation system showed where charging stations could be found. I pressed the Navi button. A navigation menu popped up. I didn't see anything that jumped out for charging stations. I went to tap on the POI selection. The salesman then informed me that it was not a touchscreen. There was a knob on the center console used to navigate the menu. Searching under POI and a couple other places, we came up blank. Ironically, all the nearby gas stations were prominently displayed on the map. This was disappointing.

Next I wanted to see the state-of-charge. The available range was shown in the center of the driver's display, but I could not find a true SOC. To make it even worse, the available range was displaying zero. My sales guy went in to get the B-Class product specialist, aka the only guy that has taken the electric drive training that they are all supposed to complete soon.

He came out and looked at the car and said that it was not charged. The sales guy explained that it had been on the charger all day. The specialist said that they had been having problems with that charger and that it apparently was not working. They have an outdoor charger too but it was currently ICEd. The car did not support any type of DC fast charge, so I was out of luck. I would not get to drive the car.

I zipped around in the parking lot a little and then parked the car. It was smooth, quiet, and peppy. I stepped out and snapped a few pictures. Maybe I'll try again soon. Here are my photos:

Despite having a larger (28 kWh) battery pack, the range of 87 miles is only 3 miles more than the 2014 Leaf (24 kWh). The acceleration is slower than BMW i3. There is no category that I see where this car stands out. It is not a well thought out EV, as demonstrated by the navigation and lacking battery display. It seems rather that Mercedes said "Tesla knows how to make EVs. Let's give them a car to put an electric drivetrain in."

I am happy to see more EV models on the road, but I would not recommend this one. If Mercedes continues down the EV path, they can revise and improve greatly on this vehicle. The Smart ED was not a good EV until their 3rd model year IMHO. But Smart stuck with it. They listened to feedback and made improvements. I hope Mercedes does the same.

I give the B-Class a grade of D, but they could be in the running for most improved next year.

National Drive Electric Week: Portland, OR

On Saturday September 20th, 2014 from 9am-4pm, we'll be filling up Electric Avenue with plug-in vehicles. 

The location on SW Montgomery in Portland is near the Park Blocks Farmers' Market and draws a lot of foot traffic and curiosity. 

Last year the event was called National Plug In Day and our sponsors included Hot Lips Pizza and Ben & Jerry's Ice Cream. 

Our event will soon be listed on the official site: https://driveelectricweek.org/ 

If you would like to volunteer or sponsor the event, contact Chase B: nscale7 at aol.com

Here are a couple photos from our rainy 2013 event: 

Energy Trust of Oregon Requesting Public Comment

The Energy Trust of Oregon is working on their 2015-2019 strategic plan and they are asking for public comment.

Please let them know that transportation is an important part of a household's energy use and they can and should encourage the use of plug-in vehicles.

The Energy Trust encourages energy efficiency. So they could, for example, have an incentive toward the purchase of home charging stations. This would be similar to the incentives that they currently have for other energy efficient products. Compared to an ICE, EVs are a huge efficiency improvement.

http://energytrust.org/about/policy-and-reports/strategic-planning-updates/

Oregon has a goal to have 90% of all vehicle miles traveled in the state to be electrically fueled by 2050. The Energy Trust of Oregon can help to make this happen.

Why battery electric vehicles will beat fuel cells

Why battery electric vehicles will beat fuel cells:

"Petroleum-powered automobiles in 2014 are a lot like the typewriters of 1984."

Turning Range Anxiety Into Range Confidence - A Conversation

Why Nissan's EZ-Charge & "No Charge To Charge" programs are a step in the right direction

A conversation from 2013:

Her: How do we solve the range anxiety issue? 

Me: First, we stop talking about anxiety. 

Her: It has to be addressed; what do we call it? 

Me: We want to build people's range confidence.

Her: How do we do that? 

Me: They have to learn that the infrastructure is there. Here in Oregon, we have plenty of it, but most people are blind to it until they have plugged in (Baader-Meinhof phenomenon of observational selection bias). New drivers need to be able to find and use the infrastructure. This means: 

   1) It has to be operational 

   2) It has to be easy to find

   3) It has to be easy to use

Let's elaborate on these three points. 

Operational 

Having unreliable EV infrastructure is in many ways worse than not having any at all. If there were no documented infrastructure, you would not make trip plans that relied upon it. However, if you think there is a series of charging stations that can take you on a 500 mile trek and it turns out that you coast into a station with a depleted battery, only to find that it is not working, this can be an infuriating experience. 

Easy to Find

If you want to find charging stations, you need two things: a smartphone & the Recargo Plugshare app. Plugshare is by far the best app out there to find charging stations. You can look at the recent check-ins and see if the last few charge events were successful, what comments people are leaving, and more. This will let you know not just what the supplier is telling you about the station's status, but also what other drivers are saying. 

Portland has a lot of EV charging infrastructure

In dash nav with charging station locations is convenient, but it is not as up to date as a crowdsourced app and they don't give you the hints needed for the hard to find stations (e.g., on what level of the parking garage should I look for it?). 

Easy to Use

This one is the hardest of the three. Through my advocacy work, new EV drivers often ask me which charging networks they should join. This is a complex question. It depends on many factors. Where do they intend to drive, are they going on long distance treks... 

It would be a lot easier if there were a single card that can be used at all of the major charging networks. 

Too many EVSE Network Memberships Complicates Charging

Even if new drivers had a single card, it is more important that they get a period of time when it is free to use this public infrastructure. Continuing the discussion above, I then told the story of how for the first two years (2011-2013) that I drove my 2011 Nissan Leaf, I would seek out charging stations. It was a fun game. I wanted to know where they were, I wanted to know which ones worked with my car. I liked driving my new car and this was a reason to do so. If there is a charging station within 40 miles of my house, I have probably been there. 

For me, during these two years, all of the infrastructure use was free. The networks were new and just getting built out. As soon as the fees began, I stopped looking for new stations. It was cheaper to charge up in my garage. But by then, I knew where the stations were and I was comfortable using them. I knew that if my range was getting low, that there were dozens of places that I could stop to grab a few Watt-hours. 

New drivers need a similar free experience to encourage them to explore. Once they know the infrastructure is out there, they will be confident in the safety-net that it provides. 

The Dealerships Must Step Up

The above outline is easy to say, but to make it happen, the dealerships will have to drive it. You often see "free oil changes for 3 years" or similar offers for new cars. EV charging is even cheaper. If the auto dealers are serious about selling EVs, they cannot ignore the infrastructure. They have more skin in that game than I think they realize. 

Robust, healthy EV infrastructure makes plug-in cars more usable and more comfortable. It removes that uneasy tinge that many new EV drivers feel.

How can the auto-makers help make this happen? They could roll out their own charging network like Tesla is doing. Or for the major EVSE providers, they should make an investment in the company and get a seat on the board of directors. From there, they can push for quality, reliability, and "uptime" metrics. These data should be in quarterly earnings reports.

Conclusion 

I like to think that the above conversation led to the creation of the EZ-Charge and "No Charge To Charge" programs that started in July of 2014. It is not free charging for life, like the Tesla superchargers, but it is long enough that new drivers will be old hands at using public infrastructure by the time their free period expires. This is what is needed to move from range anxious to range confident. 

No steering wheels, pedals or horns in cars by 2035, survey says

No steering wheels, pedals or horns in cars by 2035, survey says:

Fiat 500e Comes to Oregon

On a rainy day in May of 2014, I snapped the above photo and walked into the dealership to check out the new Electric Fiat. I was disappointed to learn that the car had not yet arrived. I asked why they put up the sign if the car was not there. They said it was coming soon and they were getting ready for it. I guess signs are a little easier to ship than cars.

I've heard of many bait-and-switch halo-car stories and I was wondering if this dealership was playing the same unscrupulous game. I was happily surprised that they did not try to talk me into buying one of their gas cars. Rather, they took down my information and told me that they'd call when the 500e arrived.

True to their word, they called two months later; the car had arrived and they had three on the lot.

Upon arriving, the first thing I saw was another sign, although this time behind it, I found two 500e. They said that they had received 9 and immediately delivered 6 of them. These two were for sale, one was the dealership's show car, and 14 more were coming.

Here are a few of my photos:

CARB's Optimistic Hydrogen Future

The California Air Resources Board (CARB) has released the following projection:

They predict that plug-in vehicles will remain a niche product and that there will be more Hydrogen-powered cars on the road than battery electric cars by 2035.

As I have said before, predicting the future is hard and the only thing you can be sure of with detailed long term predictions is that you will be wrong.

Looking at the above chart, I started to wonder what would make me drive a H2 vehicle. I have no plans to ever buy an H2 car; I am an EV fan. After some contemplation, the answer to what would it take to make me consider a FCV was "if I could plug it in". A FCV that you can plug-in. They don't have a section on the above chart for Plug-in Hybrid Fuel Cell (PHFC?) vehicles or Plug-in Hydrogen Vehicle (PH2V?). Why not? What would a PHFC look like?

I would only buy a hydrogen-powered vehicle if I could plug it in.

How would you make a Plug-in Hydrogen Vehicle? The initial idea for the Chevy Volt was a design where the range extender could be any mobile electricity source. The architecture, now called Voltec, was initially called E-Flex for this very reason. Although the Voltec instantiation of E-Flex takes advantage of the internal combustion engine to optimize some cases, this is not a requirement of the E-Flex architecture. This means, with a few changes, the gas genset could be replaced with a fuel cell. So a Plug-in Hydrogen Vehicle is technically possible.

Assuming that North American had a complete Hydrogen refueling infrastructure (which is a big assumption); I could, one day in 2045, see myself considering a car that had 100 miles of electric range with a 200 to 300 mile H2 range extender.

I don't ever want to give up the advantage of being able to "refuel" in my garage.

There are several reasons that a (currently fictional) plug-in Hydrogen vehicle is far more appealing to me than a pure H2 vehicle.

With an adequate electric range, the PHFC car would be able to meet all the normal driving needs that I use my Leaf for today AND with the fast refueling range extender, I would be able to drive across the country if I so wanted.

Being able to "fill up" at home, is important to me. It is far more convenient than going to a filling station. Just plug in the car when you get home and it starts out every morning with a full charge. When charging at home, I know the source of the energy. I know how much energy my solar panels are producing, I know what green energy option I am paying for from the local utility. Whereas H2 will likely be natural gas sourced for many years.

The final reason that I would want all but the occasional road-trip to be electrically powered, is that it is far cheaper to drive on solar energy that I generate on my roof than anything I'll ever be able to buy at a filling station. Hydrogen is projected to be the per mile equivalent cost of about $4 per gallon gasoline. Depending on your local rates, driving a plug-in car is the equivalent of $1-$2 dollars per gallon. Off-peak charging can cut that in half. Installing solar panel that you own, can make it zero.

What Would Make Me Buy An H2 Vehicle
I have previously written that FCVs will never be viable. But, what would it take to get me to buy one?

1. Continent-wide H2 refueling infrastructure
2. A plug-in hybrid fuel cell vehicle with at least 80 miles of electric range

These seem simple, just two things: a car and someplace to fill it, but I am asking for an infrastructure system that would cost billions and a car that no one currently plans to build, as far as I know. Hey, I'll give them 30 years to complete these two nearly impossible tasks. In the meantime, I'll keep driving electric with only the occasional gas car use.

Oregon EV News of the Week 2014 July 1

Your weekly digest of Oregon Electric Vehicle news, events, and

multimedia. Feel free to forward it. To get on (or off) the mailing 

list, just email me: patrick at oeva dot org.

Stay current with us on twitter, facebook, google+, or paper.li.  

Top Stories =================================================

EV Fest, EV Fest, EV Feeeest!

o EV Fest is this Saturday at Pioneer Courthouse Square! http://buff.ly/1pQm0so 

o We have been invited to 4th of July parades all around the state. People want

   to celebrate End-Dependence day. If you see an EV, show them your support.

Upcoming Oregon EVents =====================================

o Tesla Motors Club's Connect 2014, 2nd annual users’ conference, July 18 http://buff.ly/1geHPSf 

o OMSI Drive Revolution: The Future of Transportation, July 19http:/ http://buff.ly/1lELHIP 

o FHWA Workshop on Electric Vehicles, EV Roadmap 7 bonus event, July 23 http://buff.ly/1iPvVcp 

o Computers with Wheels, EV Roadmap 7 Bonus event, July 23 http://buff.ly/1iPuURM 

o EV Roadmap 7: Making Connections, July 24 http://buff.ly/1eqxd2j 

o Energize Oregon Coalition Meeting, July 25 http://buff.ly/1k3iGtG 

o Plug-in 2014, July 28-30 http://buff.ly/1sZV61J 

o 3rd annual BC2BC All Electric Vehicle Rally scheduled to start, Aug 10 http://buff.ly/1aWgQoK 

o Route 66 International Festival - EVs wanted, Aug 14 http://buff.ly/1ggx9Cs 

o National Drive Electric Week will be September 15 - 21 this year http://buff.ly/1nTY9dC 

o The Battery Show, September 16-18, 2014 Novi, Michigan http://buff.ly/1cqo3M4 

Northwest EV News =========================================

o Black Zombie electric Mustang launches Blood Shed Motors http://buff.ly/1pNw4T0 

o Oregon Charging Ahead Toward Electric Cars & Trucks http://buff.ly/1pNszMr 

o Washington State’s EV Development Could Progress Very Quickly http://buff.ly/1okT7oE 

o Oregon's electric vehicle work gets spotlight on NPR  http://buff.ly/1quV718 

o Drive Oregon Electric Mobility Monthly - June 2014 http://buff.ly/1r9Ioks 

o Oregon EV group looks for 'intersection' with software industry http://buff.ly/1pRa4Xn 

o Portland oil train protester arrested http://buff.ly/VAmeei 

o Brammo’s latest electric machine performs so like a normal bike, it makes
   fossil fuel look passe http://buff.ly/1pNwzfN 

o AutoAp lets you buy and sell used autos in select Pacific NW markets http://buff.ly/1quWQmZ 

o Candid Conversation with Brammo Empulse Customer! http://buff.ly/1pNuTD1 

o 'Road' hero takes to the streets on a Brammo http://buff.ly/1qoNvgv 

o Nissan Prices LEAF Battery Replacement at $5,499 http://buff.ly/1qR1I5D 

o E-Bike Research at Portland State University http://buff.ly/1li2qkK 

o Veteran activist and idea man Jim Powell gets applause for "triple nickel" idea.
   A trio of 5-cent taxes- gas, parking, vehicle weight.

o Charlie Hales "Cities cannot ban or tax studded tires in Oregon. We would if we could." 

o Environment Oregon says EVs Put the Brakes on Pollution http://buff.ly/UI0ZXk 

o 2014 BMW i3 in Oregon http://buff.ly/UHgHC7 

Photos & Videos ============================================

o Electric Avenue at Portland State @ElectricAvePDX (1/4) http://pic.twitter.com/LSdzrCzDm7

o Electric Avenue at Portland State @ElectricAvePDX (2/4) http://pic.twitter.com/6YbWR3vIWF

o Electric Avenue at Portland State @ElectricAvePDX (3/4) http://pic.twitter.com/5HUF87kNG8

o Electric Avenue at Portland State @ElectricAvePDX (4/4) http://pic.twitter.com/93cj5L3X3U

o Zombie222 on Vimeo http://buff.ly/1lqSSIR 

o Batteries installed in the Zombie 222 - YouTube http://buff.ly/1wDvFGO 

o Oregon Electric Byways - Explore http://pic.twitter.com/XNCX1PZaJB

o Brammo in Milano http://pic.twitter.com/4aa2XxBnDX

o Exploring Olympic National Park in a Nissan LEAF http://pic.twitter.com/BuQchs7wt8

o Torque: Porsche 911 Carrera vs Tesla Model S http://pic.twitter.com/5lFwg1pawp

o Infographic: Leave The Gas At The Gas Station http://buff.ly/1iKraYu 

o Formula E will make electric cars 'exciting' - Yahoo News Video http://buff.ly/Vo8ALl 

o Carice Mk1, Electric Tribute To Porsche 356 http://pic.twitter.com/ItQHwS9B3X

Other EV News of Note =======================================

o Tesla To Surpass Q2 Sales Expectations http://buff.ly/1qwehUm 

o Plug-In Electric Car Sales In June: Leaf's Best-Ever June, Volt Up On May http://buff.ly/1xcxcUD 

o EVs dominate Pikes Peak Hill Climb http://buff.ly/1mLhDjh 

o First Batch Of Mercedes-Benz B-Class Electric Drive EVs To Hit US Soil This Weekendhttp://buff.ly/1pBJkP3 

o Consumer Reports EVSE Guide http://buff.ly/1rRvPYt 

o Another Reason to Buy an EV: Auto Exhaust Hurts Bees’ Ability to Find Foodhttp://buff.ly/1qsocdm 

o Electric Car Price Guide: Every 2014-2015 Plug-In Car, With Specs http://buff.ly/Vr2DgG 

o Nissan's DC Quick-Charging Stations: 630 CHAdeMO Sites Live Today http://buff.ly/1z2HuZf 

o First Female Driver In Formula E http://buff.ly/1z2Hg4u 

o ICE on the Road Ahead for Another 100 Years http://buff.ly/1r3lb37 

o Meet Real Power's $95,000 Mobile Quick Charge Truck http://buff.ly/1iKq2En 

o July Fourth fires up highest gas prices since '08 http://buff.ly/1iKpAWG 

o Oil drilling threatens solitude of national park http://ht.ly/yxjXc 

o Harley-Davidson Project LiveWire Electric Motorcycle Reveal - YouTube http://buff.ly/1pzYtA8 

o Details On The 2015 Volkswagen Passat Plug-In Hybrid http://buff.ly/1o8g6TY 

o Want to work on Harley's new electric cycle? http://buff.ly/1lt1GxQ 

o Continental updates their low rolling resistance, low nose tire optimized for EVs & hybridshttp://buff.ly/1nHRwrl 

o The vehicle you drive has a greater effect on the environment than any other choice you make. @UCSUSA

o How many solar panels do you need to change an EV? http://buff.ly/TkOGPt 

o Join the EV movement, host your own National Drive Electric week event this summerhttp://bit.ly/V6t37n

o Why I Now Want A Tesla Instead Of The 2015 Mustang http://buff.ly/1mcafZw 

o Reduce, Reuse, Recycle the Electric Vehicle Way http://buff.ly/1lMG3tH 

=D~~~ Live Regeneratively!