HyperChange

Galileo Russell is the host of the HyperChange TV YouTube channel. Galileo is a young visionary.

On his channel, he covers how new tech will change the world for his generation. The sharing economy, everything as a service, blockchain tech that allows trust on the internet in ways that have never existed before and how you can participate and invest in this new future.

He breaks down company strategies to see how they square up to in this the quickly coming future.

His Moonshot Monday videos are radical ideas that could change the landscape for the target companies. For example, he discussed Amazon buying a grocery chain long before Amazon's Whole Foods purchase. Now he's advocating for them to install rooftop gardens on all their stories to sell the freshest possible fruits and vegetables. With drone delivery, you could have fresh-picked produce at your door just minutes after it was picked from the garden. Is it practical today? Maybe not, but it's a great example of his out-of-the-box thinking.

One of his favorite companies to discuss is Tesla. He's been covering them since 2012 and recommended the stock when it was priced at $29. He is a fan and gives astute breakdowns of Tesla news and the company's future direction.

Other stocks he frequently covers includes NetFlix and Chipotle. He also covers cryptocurrencies Bitcoin and Ethereum as well as investing basics education.

His latest project is a "scheme of conscience" book, titled after his channel. The book has minimal structure and, as the title suggests, is a conversational stream of consciousness. If you'd like a raw look into the mind of a young excited visionary that sees a whole new world coming for his generation, I suggest you give this a read.

Disclosures: 

This article includes Amazon Associates links.

I'm Long Tesla

http://ts.la/patrick7819

Oregon Has Electric Aspirations

Oregon Gov Kate Brown at EV Roadmap 10 in 2017

Oregon Governor Kate Brown has set a goal to have 50,000 plug-in cars on the state’s roads by the end of 2020.

On the Thursday morning of the Portland International Auto Show, Charlie Allcock from Portland General Electric spoke to an informal gathering of EV policymakers and advocates. Charlie had done some math and said by his reckoning, Oregon needs to register around 35 plug-in electric vehicles per day to reach that goal.

Charlie Allcock behind the wheel of PGE's electric service van

“There’s no question we’re making progress,” Allcock said. “But there is so far to go, and we need to be moving faster.”

For comparison, in 2017 Oregon added an average of 10.6 plug-ins per day. That was a modest increase over 2016's rate of 9.4 per day.

So how do you more than triple the number of EVs sold in the sale? 

EV sales have been slowly increasing, but there are changes that EV advocates hope will boost the rate of EV adoption to hit the state's goal: 

• Two state EV-rebate programs: As of the start of 2018, Oregon has a $2500 EV incentive for vehicles that qualify. Additionally, there is a second $2500 incentive for low-income households that can be combined with the first incentive for a total of $5000 off the price of an EV. Combine this with the $7500 federal incentive and the fuel saves and EVs become affordable to many more people.
• Electricfy America plans to install charging infrastructure within the state - Portland was named as one of the 11 metropolitan areas for priority investment
• $10 Million from the state's Volkswagen dieselgate settlement fund will be used for EV infrastructure "with a focus on connecting rural communities, low-income communities, and Oregonians living in multi-family homes"
• Portland General Electric has plans to install EV infrastructure around the state 
• EV sales have increased each year as more options come to market. Among the new cars coming to market is the Tesla Model 3. This car has a large back order list that will be significantly fulfilled over the next few years with many of these coming to Oregon

2018 Tesla Model 3 Production: 80,000 or 264,000?

We've had an ongoing series to track the number of cars that Tesla delivers. In the US, there's a very good reason to be concerned with deliveries. That reason is the federal EV incentive that begins a phase-out countdown after the 200,000th vehicle is delivered.

The effort of tracking the deliveries has led us to monitoring Tesla's manufacturing results. With that in mind, we'll look at Tesla's most recent production guidance and we'll look at the model we've built based on their historic delivery results and see how closely they align.

Tesla's 2018 Production Guidance 

From Tesla's January 3rd letter:

           

In Q4, Tesla delivered 29,870 vehicles, of which 15,200 were Model S, 13,120 were Model X, and 1,550 were Model 3...

           

In the last few days [of the 4th quarter], we hit a production rate ... that extrapolates to over 1,000 Model 3's per week.

           

As we continue to focus on quality and efficiency rather than simply pushing for the highest possible volume in the shortest period of time, we expect to have a slightly more gradual ramp through Q1, likely ending the quarter at a weekly rate of about 2,500 Model 3 vehicles. We intend to achieve the 5,000 per week milestone by the end of Q2.

These tells us a few things: They are making about 30,00 Model S & X per quarter, they are currently capable of 1,000 Model 3s per week as of the end of 2017. They plan a slow, quality-focused ramp up to 2,500 per week by the end of Q1, and finally, they plan to be at 5,000 per week by the end of Q2.

This update didn't mention anything beyond Q2, but we know from previous statements that Tesla plans to get to 10,000 Model 3s per week. In August of 2017 Musk said:

           

What people should absolutely have zero concern about, and I mean zero, is that Tesla will achieve a 10,000 unit production week by the end of next year… I think people should really not have any concerns that we won’t reach that outcome from a production rate.

Using these statements, we'll try to set an upper and lower bound on Tesla's guidance. Since the latest guidance didn't mention anything beyond 5,000 per week, for the low end, we'll just keep it at this level. That seems unlikely given the "zero concern" comment, but it gives us a bigger delta between the high and low guidance ranges. Considering the uncertainty of forecasting, wide error bars seems like a good idea.

2018 Week	Weekly Low	Weekly High	Cumulative Low	Cumulative High	Notes
1	500	1500	500	1500	Since Tesla ended 2017 at a rate of 1000 per week, this seems like a good starting point (plus or minus 500)
2	572	1565	1072	3065	Slow ramp to 2500 in week 13 starts
3	654	1633	1726	4699
4	748	1705	2474	6403
5	855	1779	3329	8182
6	978	1865	4307	10038
7	1118	1937	5425	11975
8	1278	2021	6703	13997
9	1462	2109	8165	16106
10	1671	2297	9836	18308
11	1911	2297	11747	20605
12	2186	2397	13933	23002
13	2500	2500	16433	25502	End of Q1 at 2500 per week guidance
14	2550	2637	18983	28139
15	2601	2782	21584	30920
16	2653	2934	24237	36949
17	2706	3095	26943	36949
18	2774	3264	29717	40213
19	2846	3443	32563	43656
20	2931	3632	35494	47288
21	3107	3831	38601	51119
22	3325	4041	41926	55160
23	3591	4262	45517	59422
24	3914	4496	49431	63918
25	4305	4742	53736	68660
26	5000	5000	58736	73660	5000 per week at the end of Q2
27	5000	5136	63736	78796
28	5000	5275	68736	84071
29	5000	5418	73736	89488
30	5000	5564	78736	95053
31	5000	5715	83736	100768
32	5000	5870	88736	106638
33	5000	6029	93736	112667
34	5000	6193	98736	118860
35	5000	6360	103736	125220
36	5000	6533	108736	131753
37	5000	6710	113736	138463
38	5000	6892	118736	145354
39	5000	7078	123736	152433
40	5000	7270	128736	159703
41	5000	7467	133736	167170
42	5000	7670	138736	174840
43	5000	7877	143736	182717
44	5000	8091	148736	190808
45	5000	8310	153736	199119
46	5000	8535	158736	207654
47	5000	8767	163736	216421
48	5000	9004	168736	225425
49	5000	9248	173736	234673
50	5000	9499	178736	244172
51	5000	9756	183736	253929
52	5,000	10,000	188,736	263,929	10,000 per week at the end of 2018 in the high guidance

Following Tesla's guidance, if they meet their 2,500 and 5,000 targets, they'll produce ~189,000 Model 3s in 2018. If they hit the high end of guidance and continue to ramp up to 10,000 per week by the end of the year, they would have ~264,000 Model 3s produced in 2018. Add about 100,000 Model S and X and Tesla could have their first 300,000+ year.

Back in its NUMMI days, the Fremont factory had the capacity to produce about ~500,000 cars per year, so this is not an impossibility for this location. However, going from ~50,000 in 2017 to ~300,000 in 2018 is a big jump; it is not just a doubling, but a 6X.

Our Model

Rather than just going by Tesla's guidance, let's look at the historical data from Tesla's deliveries and see how that projects forward. This is "driving by the rearview mirror", but it can provide a sanity check.

The mathematical model that we're using looks at Tesla's prior US deliveries and simply projects a best-fit growth. Since Model 3 deliveries are currently only going to the US, this seems reasonable. This math model does not have any targets, goals, or shareholders. It's just an equation, not an undeniable fate. It doesn't account for innovation or step functions. The majority of the data that feeds this model is based 5 and a half years of Model S and X deliveries. Model 3 is being made with an entirely new manufacturing line and new processes, so this model is of limited value. That said, if the model agrees with Tesla's guidance, this will allow for increased confidence in the guidance.

Compared Side By Side

Many types of exponential growth charts have a hockey-stick curve. When they hit the "elbow" and "go exponential" the values grow drastically. As you can see, Tesla's guidance, even their low guidance, anticipates going exponential in Q2 of this year.

Our model (the green line) is much more pessimistic.  It does have growth in Tesla's production, it even predicts a record year for Tesla, but not to the level of Tesla's guidance. Let's zoom in on 2018 for a little closer look.

There's a big difference between these three lines. There are a lot of unknowns for 2018. The chart shows that 2018 Model 3 production could be anywhere from 80,000 to 264,000 Model 3s. Tesla's Model 3 guidance throughout all of 2017 has been highly optimistic and production has fallen short, but they will resolve the bottlenecks (perhaps they already have), they will turn the corner of the elbow,  production will make a big jump and "go exponential". Our model has this occurring in 2019. I hope Tesla's guidance for 2018 is more accurate and we see it this year.

The optimistic estimates for Model 3 production in 2017 predicted about 80,000 vehicles. Tesla delivered a couple thousand. Ironically, for this year, our model predicts this same number (80,000), yet it is considered pessimistic, in light of Tesla's guidance and the optimistic projections by others. As we've covered here, setting very aggressive goals (and often falling short, while still achieving great things) is a part of Musk's leadership style. It would not be a surprise if one or more suppliers stumbles in 2018 as Tesla attempts to go from 1,000 Model 3 units per week to 5,000 per week. Given these logistics, the 80,000 units for the year estimate seems realistic. All while Tesla also delivers more Model S and X cars than they ever have before too.

http://ts.la/patrick7819

10 Years of EV Driving (Part 6 - The Bud Of A New Leaf)

Our slow path to a 100% EV household.

In 2007, (part 4) I became an EV driver and an EV advocate. Later that year (part 5), we installed solar panels. This had turned me into an advocate. I joined the Electric Auto Association, Plug In America, and Solar Oregon. I blogged and wrote for Plugincars.com and All Cars Electric (now part of Green Car  Reports) and I advocated for automakers to make EVs.

In 2008, I meet several designers, engineers, and a program manager from Nissan. They were working on their new EV and they wanted to hear what EV drivers loved about there cars (or truck in my case). I would learn later that this is what would become the Nissan Leaf.

We were in a large conference room. There were several EV drivers and several people from Nissan. They had several questions for us. My first statement to them was cautionary. Remembering my disappointing Xebra test drive, I explained how they should not over-commit and under-deliver. If they said the car would go 100 miles. Then it needed to be able to go 100 miles at freeway speeds while managing the hills that are common here. Unfortunately, Nissan didn't listen to this. When the Leaf came out, it was EPA rated for 72 miles, but much of their marketing emphasized that you could get up to 100 miles.

I suggested that they have a simple way to show the current range on the navigation map. Then I could look and see if my destination is within the "you-can-make-it" zone without taking the time to type in an address. This made it into the final vehicle.

The format was a small group interview, two of the other interviewees, started arguing about regen levels. One wanted heavy regen to maximize energy recapture. The other wanted light regen to allow gliding for hypermiling and range maximization. I interrupted their argument, to point out to the Nissan folks that this was a "religious war" within the EV community. Their best option was to offer two modes; otherwise, they would immediately alienate whichever portion of the community they didn't select. This made it into the final vehicle.

I suggested that the car has its own data connection and that it included charging locations in the navigation system. It was important that the car had its own data connection so it could get over-the-air (OTA) updates because new charging stations were going to be getting installed every week. The old process of taking your car into the dealership for a map update would not work. This too made it into the final vehicle.

Today, these seem obvious, but remember this was 2008. It would be 4 years before the Tesla Model S came out and took OTA updates and other aspects to the next level.

This was a great experience. It was so cool to be able to meet with people at a company that were working on an EV program and to shares ideas with them. I had never owned a Nissan vehicle before, but I was now very curious about their plans and wanted to know what they'd do with all of this research that they were collecting from EV drivers. I'd have to wait more than a year before I learned more about Nissan's plans.

On to Part 7

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10 Years of EV Driving (Part 5 - Running On Sunshine)

Our slow path to a 100% EV household.

Part 4 concluded in 2007, I'd just became an EV driver. This was such a better driving experience than anything I'd ever driven before. For me, owning an EV turned me into an advocate. I started a blog, I participated in newsgroups and forums, I drove my EV in parades, showed it whenever I had a chance. I became a passionate advocate for the technology.

Anytime you are advocating for something (especially online), you are going to run into haters. One of the retorts to the environmental claims of EVs is that they are grid powered and that means fossil fuel powered in many regions (although declining). Detractors say that EVs are "coal cars" or have a "long tailpipe" all the way back to the smokestack...

There have been studies that show that even when EVs are powered from a fossil fuel powered grid, that they are more efficient and have less CO2 per mile than gas cars when the entire well-to-wheel analysis is done. While it is true that EVs are better than gas cars even when grid-powered, that is a long story to tell. It is much easier to just say when they are solar powered, there is no CO2. Before we had an electric car, I didn't really think about where my electricity came from. The fact that I was plugging in my personal transportation each night and feeling it surge when I pressed on the accelerator, changed things. Somehow EV driving suddenly made the source of my electricity matter more to me than flipping a light switch ever did. So we started shopping for a solar photovoltaic (PV) system to put on our roof.

In late 2007, we had a 4kW PV installed on our roof; twenty panels, 200W each. This was enough to power about 16,000 miles of EV driving each year. I drove less than half that amount. The rest would help power our refrigerator and air conditioner.

Solar panel installation

Now we had solar panels to "fuel" up our EV and we had a lower electricity bill than we did before we bought the EV. We were running on sunshine.

On to Part 6

http://ts.la/patrick7819

When Will Tesla Hit 200,000 Sales in the U.S.? [Q4 2017 Update]

2017 was an exciting year for electric vehicles. Among the many milestones, there are two
(or three) relevant to this discussion: one, the US Federal Tax Credit survived the political budget process; two, the Tesla Model 3 began shipping to Tesla employees in July and (3) to non-employees in December.

Now that Model 3 is shipping, I (and thousands of others) are patiently (or not so patiently) awaiting our delivery and (if we're in the US) we want to know if we'll get the EV tax credit for our new Tesla!

Tesla released their 2017 delivery numbers, so we can update our prediction model and see where it forecasts the incentive phase out to begin and how many more Tesla vehicles can qualify for the full $7500 amount.

Tesla's 2017 Deliveries

Tesla delivered just over 50,000 cars to the US market in 2017 with ~15,000 of those in Q4. This brings the total US delivery number up to ~160,000 cars. Remember the incentive starts its phase out 3 to 6 months after a manufacturer hits 200,000 deliveries. So Tesla only has ~40,000 cars to go before the trigger number is hit and the countdown starts to reduce the incentive.

Tesla Model 3 Options

If you want to get your Model 3 sooner, you can get the First Production version. This is rear-wheel drive with the long-range battery and premium upgrades. If you want the cheaper standard range version or the all-wheel drive, you can see an example of how this will impact your potential delivery below:

For the example schedule above the First Production vehicle could be delivered in just four weeks from the time the configure button is clicked. The more affordable $35,000 car could be delivered a few months later, and finally, the Dual Motor All-Wheel Drive in seven to nine months after the First Production would be in your driveway. There is still no official word on the white interior or the performance version of Model 3 yet. If those are on your desired feature list, keep your fingers crossed that they roll out with the model variants above.

If your car were on this example schedule and you waited for the Dual Motor AWD car, would you receive the full $7500 tax credit?

Tax Credit Cut Off

We've been tracking Tesla's US sales for over a year now. About a year, back then we predicted that Tesla would cross the 200,000 mark in Q2 of 2018. The Tesla superfans thought this was crazy late because Tesla would be making 5.000 Model 3s per week by the end of 2017. While I hoped they were right, the data said otherwise. Rather, we looked at all the hurdles that needed to be overcome and said that Tesla would ship a few thousand Model 3s in 2017. Musk's own warning statements (not his bold predictions) were used to support this forecast. As the 2017 production numbers rolled in each quarter, our prediction continued to come into focus as you can see here, here, and here.

With 160,000 Tesla's on US roads and a current delivery rate of 15,000 per quarter (and increasing), unless there is a major disruption, Tesla certainly will hit the 200,000 number at some point this year. So, let's look at the data:

Just as it has for more than a year, our model predicts the 200,000th US Tesla car will be delivered in Q2 of 2018. This is not the hyped expectation nor the pessimistic one; each of which have their following, but a realistic prediction that, so far, has proven to hold up over one year's worth of additional car deliveries.

If this model is correct and the 200,000th car is delivered in Q2 of 2018, here's how the incentive would phase out.

That means the example delivery schedule given at the beginning of this article, could wait for the standard battery in "Early 2018" or the dual motor AWD in Q3 and still receive the full incentive.

Maximize The Incentive

Looking at the prediction model in more detail, since it shows 200,000th delivery in June (late in Q2), Tesla may opt to stockpile some and/or divert some Model S and X deliveries to Norway or China so that the 200,000 mark is crossed in July rather than June. Delivering the milestone vehicle early in the 3rd quarter would allow Tesla to maximize the number of deliveries that fall under the full incentive. This is likely to be a decision that is made as late as possible so they will have the most certainty possible.

If Tesla cannot deliver the 200,000th car in April of 2018, they will likely delay the delivery if that milestone vehicle until July.

http://ts.la/patrick7819

Tesla: What to Expect in 2018

What does Tesla have in store for us in 2018?

Following Tesla, there are always surprises. You never know when Elon Musk is going to launch a car into space or tweet about drilling tunnels, selling flamethrowers, or building a 50s style diner with food delivery on roller skates.

A few things that we should expect might see in 2018:

• Ramping Model 3 production to 5,000 per week
• Standard range Model 3 deliveries
• Dual motor Model 3
• Announcing locations and perhaps even breaking ground on one or two new Gigafactory locations
• Coast to coast autonomous drive 
• Solar roof tile deliveries 
• Megacharger location deployments
• Sneak peaks of the Roadster 2020 and Semi as they start road testing
• New Tesla mobile app with several new features

By July of 2018, we can expect Tesla to be the first automaker to cross the 200,000 US vehicle delivery mark. This starts the countdown to phase out the US federal incentive for Tesla's vehicles.

A few more things we might see:

• A reveal event for Model Y 
• More info about Tesla Pickup Truck (what is the game-changing feature?)
• Performance version of Model 3
• Model S and X interior redesign to bring it up to snuff with the Model 3 minimalism 
• Model S and X moving to the 2170 cell. This is certainly possible, but given the desire to ramp Model 3 as fast as possible, it may be a good idea to keep S & X on the unconstrained 18650 for another year.
• 120kWh Model S / X: if these vehicles move to the 2170, a range upgrade would be a nice add-on
• Improved voice commands that reduce the need to use the touchscreen for many settings
• TeslaTunes streaming music service
• Tesla Network ridesharing service
• Surprises that we could never predict

What surprises do you expect from Tesla in 2018?

====== UPDATE ======

A few updates from readers:

• Stop sign \ stop light recognition
• Navigation route following
• Full-self driving 
• HUD 

Trolley Problem and Murder Hospital

TLRD:

• The Trolly Problem is just a philosophical construct, but some variant of the no-win situation will be in examined autonomous cars (at least in simulation) 
• This post presents the ethical case for the trolly (or an autonomous car) to hit the group of 5 people, rather than the single person

Full Story:
If you've read much about autonomous cars, then you've heard of "The Trolley Problem." If you haven't encountered this, count yourself lucky.

To briefly recap, here's how The Trolley Problem goes:
There's a runaway trolley car is barreling down the tracks. There's no way for you to stop it. Ahead, on the tracks, there are 5 people tied down, unable to move. The trolley is headed straight for them. You're standing next to a track lever. If you pull the lever, the trolley will divert to a different track and the 5 will be safe. However, there's 1 person tied to the other track. What do you do?

Each time I've encountered it, I thought, "Who cares? In the real world, it will never come up. It is just a philosophical debate of no consequence." Chatting with a friend, the topic again came up and after my "This doesn't matter" objections, we agreed that, if for no other reason than the press around the topic, some variation of the trolley problem will be put into the training simulators for self-driving cars and the cars will have to do something, the system will have to make a choice. What choice should an autonomous car make in a no-win situation?

You have two standard options:
1) Do nothing, and the trolley kills the 5 people
2) Pull the lever, diverting the trolley, where it kills 1 person

You can save five lives by sacrificing one. Would you do it?

Assuming you know nothing about the people, the utilitarian answer seems to be: Pull the lever because 5 is greater than 1. You've saved a net-sum of 4 lives.

Let’s continue that reasoning. If you were sitting on a bridge above the tracks, and you saw the trolley heading towards 5 people, and you knew that you could shove the person next to you off the bridge, thereby derailing the trolley and saving 5, should you do it?

In this second case, most people now say 'No' because murder.

The net results are the same in each case, based on your actions, 1 person dies to save 5; yet, these two feel very different. I propose that the doing-nothing response in the 2nd case (the bridge), is the right one for both situations.

In both cases, the 5 people are in danger (by who knows what cause) and the 1 person has not put themselves in danger (they were off the active track…). So the 5 must be the ones to suffer the consequences of their circumstances and it is wrong to force anyone else to suffer on their behalf.

To clarify this, let's look at one more example, "Murder Hospital." Let's assume there's a national organ registry. This registry is periodically analyzed. During this analysis, if they find that you could save 5 (or more) people by having your organs harvested, then they would round you up for harvesting.

My guess is that you would not like to live in a world with such a system. Even if they told you that you would save 5 lives, plus your skin will be used for graphs to help burn victims and your eyes will be used to restore sight for someone. Your blood will go to help people in an ER. You would save at least 5 lives and you will help more than a dozen people in total in very positive ways. Saving lives and restoring sight, you should be honored that you’ve been selected, they'd say. And as part of the package, your family gets a lottery-sized check and will be taken care of for life. One life seems like a small price to pay to bring life and joy to so many.

So we should implement forced organ harvesting immediately, right? Of course not! You might feel sympathy for these sick people and you may donate money to their causes or volunteer time to their organizations, but sacrificing your life for people that you don't know is asking too much. In the end, the tragic situations of their lives are theirs to deal with; reasonable help and support are all that should be expected.

These life and death choices are not made by the simple utility of the outcome. They have to be based on the fairness of the situation. As Murder Hospital demonstrates, sacrificing an uninvolved bystander without their consent is wrong, even if it saves a greater number of people.

The ethical case for the trolley (or an autonomous car) to run over five people directly in front of it, rather than one bystander

Applying this to autonomous cars, it means that the car doesn’t swerve into the smaller crowd, to avoid the larger one. If the car cannot avoid the accident (avoidance is, of course, always preferred), then it does all that it can (such as braking) to mitigate the damage to the people or vehicle that is right in front of it and then it just lets fate take its course.

This has several advantages:

1. This action is "more human like." In the midst of an accident, no one is going to go through the ethical debate of which way to swerve. It is far more likely that they would just hit the brakes.
2. It is easier to program. If a collision is imminent, look for a clear path, if one cannot be found, then brake.
3. You won’t have video footage of a car flying off the road (e.g., avoiding a bus) and hitting innocent pedestrians.

Advantages aside, self-driving cars should act this way because it is the right thing to do. I assert that self-driving cars should act to minimize involvement (rather than simply reduce total utilitarian harm). When there's an imminent accident, the people, be they pedestrians crossing the street or in an oncoming car, are already involved. They voluntarily entered the arena where cars traverse. In doing so, they took on some measure of risk and responsibility. I'm not saying this means they should be hitl rather, uninvolved others that are on the sidewalk or other safe areas should not be sacrificed to avoid hitting those that are already involved (or the cause of) the incident.

So my answer to The Trolley Problem is to stay on the straight tracks. In a car, however, there are no tracks. Cars will have many more options. They can dodge, skid, brake, drift, and more. Autonomous cars will, at some point, have thousands of years of driving experience and skills beyond any human. These cars will be controlled by powerful AI systems that do this one thing (driving) really really well. With these skills, they will likely find a way to avoid hitting anyone. This brings it all back to the start: For autonomous vehicles, The Trolley Problem, won't be a problem.

http://ts.la/patrick7819

Winter Driving In A Tesla

Tesla Model S in the Snow, Image via caricos.com

Tesla has released firmware version 2017.50 and it has new cold weather features. We'll show you tips that work with this new firmware and tips that you can use in any electric vevhicle.

Old man winter's here and it's cold outside. The cold weather and road contions have impacts on driving regardless of the fuel source. In an EV, winter conditions have range impacts. If you want to maximize your winter driving range, there are some smart things that you can do in a Tesla to make winter driving comfortable and to maximize your winter range.

1. Preheat Your Car

Climate Control in Tesla App

Using the Tesla app, you can preheat your car while it is still plugged in. This allows the cabin to heat up using wall power instead of battery power, leaving more of your battery energy to move you down the road. You might even pre-condition 4 or 5 degrees above where you'd like it normally to further delay the use of battery power for the climate system once you are on the road.

It takes a lot less energy to maintain a warm temp than to raise the temp, so this tip pays off and now you get to step into a nice warm ride. #winwin

To use this tip, you must keep your car plugged in. Occasionally, new EV owners worry that leaving their car plugged in will damage the battery or cause a memory effect. With Teslas, the saying is "A plugged in Tesla, is a happy Tesla." There is memory effect concern with modern Lithium batteries. If you plan on leaving your can for any period of time, set the range down into the "Daily" region and keep it plugged in. This allows the car to draw power whenever it needs it for various thermal maintenance and connectivity actions.

1b. Scheduled Preheating

As I write this, there is no option to schedule a reoccurring climate control event in the app, but a major overhaul of the Tesla app is expected in 2018 and this is an oft requested feature so I would not be surprised to see it arrive soon. There are 3rd party apps available today that will allow you to pre-heat on a fixed schedule if this is a must have for you and you don't want to wait.

2. Pre-Heat The Battery 

Starting with firmware version 2017.50, Tesla added a new feature to precondition the battery. It might be more accurate to say that the app now displays this to the user since the car has had this feature for several years, but now the driver can see the battery temperature state.

When the battery is too cold, it is limited in many ways. It cannot charge or discharge at its full rate. This limits acceleration and regen. With limited regen, energy is wasted rather than recaptured and your range will be reduced.

When temperatures are near freezing and the battery would benefit from preconditioning, you'll see the snowflake icon and a blue region in the Tesla app. The blue region shows the portion of the battery capacity that is currently not available due to the cold temperature. To start the preconditioning, just turn on the climate control system. Climate control only takes a few minutes to heat or cool the cabin but warming the battery takes about an hour, so plan ahead when possible.

Using this feature will allow you to regain the blue region of the battery and increase your range and performance.

Just like Tip #1 above, to maximize range, make sure the car is plugged in.

3. Heated Seats

Model X 6 Seat Config w/ Subzero Package

If you live in a region that has a notable winter season or you just don't like being cold, it's worth it to get the subzero package when you buy a Tesla. It adds heated seat, heated wiper blades, heated washer nozzles, headed mirrors, and a heated steering wheel.

Heating the seats and the steering wheel is a much better way to stay warm than heating all the air in the cabin. Depending on the outside temp, this may be all the warming that you need.

4. Snow Tires & Alternatives

AutoSocks

The above tips have been about keeping you warm and maximizing range. This tip is about keeping you safe. Winter driving can be dangerous. Make sure you use adequate traction control for the conditions and slow down as needed to maintain control.

If you live someplace with harsh winter conditions, then you should likely get winter tires and carry chains. Tesla sells traction devices that are made to fit their cars in their "shop" website.

I am fortunate that we only have a few days each year of snow and ice. On these rare days, I can generally work from home so I usually don't have to drive in the snow unless we're headed up to Mt. Hood for some skiing fun.

Even though snow and ice driving are not part of my typical routine, it's better to be prepared. I don't want to stranded if there is a surprise snowstorm while I'm out of the house. If we need supplies or there's an emergency, I want to be able to drive in winter conditions. To cover this case, I carry a set of AutoSocks in the car. These are light and easy to put on. They slip over the tire like a shower cap. Much easier to put on than chains and they work far better than I thought they could.

I'm not sure that you'd want to use them on a 100-mile skip trip, but they'd work great for a trip to the store on a cold winter's day. You can pick up a set here.

5. Smart Climate Control

When it's cold in the car, you might be tempted to crank the heater up all the way. Tesla's cars have powerful heaters that can bring the cabin temp up to 80F/27C quickly. This is usually a waste of energy. Instead of setting it on HI, just set it to the temp that you want, such as 72F/22C and let the HVAC system do its thing. This will avoid the overshoot that will likely occur if you are manually controlling the system.

As we mentioned in tip 3, make sure you are warming your seat when you're cold. If this is not enough, this can be supplemented with the cabin heater. You might notice that you can leave the HVAC temp a little lower than you normally would when you have your hands and buns already warm. This might also mean that all you really need to do is warm your feet, so you can direct the HVAC air to just that region.

If you turn on Range Mode in your Tesla, the HVAC system power is reduced. This can help in this case, but it is generally needed if you follow the tips above to preheat, seat heat, and use a smart temp.

6. Chill Mode

Depending on the options that you buy with your Tesla, you'll have 2 or more acceleration modes. They are: Standard, Chill, & Performance/Ludicrous/Launch. When you are driving on snow and ice, gradual acceleration is a good idea. Chill Mode acceleration can help keep all the tires gripping. Traction control certainly will still kick in as needed, but Chill Mode can help you lighten your foot a little and prevent you from needing it as often.

Chill Mode also seems to engage the regen a little slower, this means it can help when slowing down as well as when accelerating.

7. Driving Speed

Speaking of chilling, now that you have the cabin, battery, and seats warmed up and the climate control set just right, it's time to drive.

If you want to increase your driving range, one of the simplist ways is to slow down a bit. Drag is a function of the square of velocity, so even taking 5 MPH off your speed could have a notable impact on the range. When you are driving on ice and snow, slowing down is a good idea for safety too. Here, you have the additional benefit improved range.

8. Route Planning

PlugShare

Know Before You Go: As always, when traveling in an EV, make sure to allow for a margin of error on your routine planning and charging. You don't want to get stranded. Especially in the winter, road closures are possible and you may have to take a detour. Make sure you have enough charge to get to your next stop. If you have an app like PlugShare, it can help you find a place to grab a few extra killowatt-hours if the unexpected happens and you need a charge.

Anytime you stop and plug in, make sure to preheat the cabin and seats again before you unplug and get back on the road. If you've been driving and charging, the battery pack should not need to be warmed up again.

9. Clear The Snow

Snow Brush and Ice Scraper

If you stop to charge, this is also a good time to clear the snow that has likely accumulated on the car. Snow and ice can block the sonar sensors and can add drag to the car. I like to carry a brush-scrapper combo like the one shown above. The brush is great for the snow and the scraper for the window ice. You can get one here in blue or red to match your car (assuming it's blue or red :)

Bonus Tip 

The side view mirror defrost does not have its own setting. They are enabled when the rear window defrost is turned on.

Wrapping Up

I hope these tips help you stay warm this winter. Have a nice cup of cocoa when you make it to your destination. Be sure to wear a good coat, hat, and gloves for the trek. Drive Safely.

Disclosures: 

This article includes Amazon Associates links.

I'm Long Tesla

http://ts.la/patrick7819

Profitably Powering The Tesla Semi

While talking with some EV-driving friends about the Tesla Semi, we got to the subject of paying to charge the truck on the road. At the Semi unveiling event, Elon Musk said that it would cost 7¢ per kilowatt-hour anywhere to charge in North America. To my surprise, they didn't think that Tesla could profitable sell energy for such a cheap price. One of these friends drives a Tesla and is a big fan of the company, so I was surprised to hear his skepticism. I asserted that they could.

Everyone has opinions, but let's look at some data and try to make it an informed opinion.

Wholesale Electricity Market

The US Energy Information Administration tracks US wholesale prices here:
https://www.eia.gov/electricity/wholesale/

Looking at the numbers for 2016 and 2017, you can see that wholesale prices are generally $30-$50 per MWH. That is only 3 to 5¢ per kilowatt-hour. There are times when it is 9 or 12¢, but just as many times when it is 2¢.

Tesla has acquired SolarCity and they are in the energy business. This gives them access to the wholesale market in many regions. Looking at the wholesale data alone, you could profitably buy energy on this market and resell it at 7¢ per kWh. However, this is only part of the picture.

Demand Charges

What makes industrial energy expensive are demand charges. Large industrial electricity consumers are charged per kilowatt-hour similar to residential customers, but they additionally have to pay a demand charge. Whereas industrial electricity rates are pennies per kilowatt-hour (generally cheaper than residential rates), demand charges are generally several dollars per kilowatt-hour. Depending on the usage, these demand charges can be up to 80% of the energy bill. Demand charges are designed to discourage big swings in demand from the grid. If industrial customers can use energy at a steady and predictable pace, then the utility can better serve everyone. Steady predictable usage helps prevent brownouts and the need for more expensive peaker plant sources such as diesel generators to be powered on by the utility.

Controlling demand charges the key to industrial electricity usage. If Tesla can buy energy for 3 to 5¢ and sell it for 7¢, they have a positive gross margin. If they have $8 per kWh demand charges on top of that, they have a big loss.

Applying this to Tesla Megacharger stations, there are three mechanisms that Tesla has to manage these demand charges: Onsite energy storage (Tesla Powerpacks), Solar energy production, Charging speeds. Let's look at each of these.

Onsite Energy Storage

Tesla's Megacharger stations will most likely have Powerpack energy storage systems as part of their design. Using these batteries Tesla can manage their grid demand. During a peak use time, rather than draw all the energy from the grid, they could, for example, draw 80% from the grid and 20% from their onsite batteries. This allows them to reduce the grid draw while not requiring the onsite batteries to take 100% of the needed demand. The batteries can then be recharged long after the semi is back on the road. This draws the same amount of energy from the grid, but it smooths out the load and reduces or avoids demand charges.

Utility Services

Once Tesla has Powerpacks installed, they could offer Peak Shaving and Load Shifting energy storage services to the local utilities. In many regions utilities have renewable energy goals. If they have to turn on demand standby sources (peaker plants) such as diesel generators, this could blow their CO2 budget and result in fees (in addition to the fuel cost).

If Tesla offered Demand Response Services to local utilities, they could have an additional revenue stream for these sites. Today, for Tesla to build an energy storage system for a utility, they have to go through an arduous approval process. However, if the Powerpacks are already installed and Tesla is offering this as a service, the upfront cost to the utility would be much smaller and the approval process to use the service could be much simpler.

Solar Energy

As we covered recently, a solar carport covering 40 parking spots (depending on where it is installed) can provide enough energy to power 100,000 Tesla Semi Truck miles annually. This is energy that Tesla can sell without buying it on the wholesale market.

Additionally, when solar is paired with energy storage, this allows for load demand management. The solar panels will produce energy during the day. Any semi charging that occurs when the sun is out would allow the onsite management software to determine the best combination of sources to draw energy from (solar panels, batteries, and/or grid).

Excess solar energy would be stored in the Powerpacks for evening use. The Powerpacks could then be recharged overnight at off-peak rates for morning charging events before sufficient solar energy has been generated for the day.

Charging Rate

Last on the list of things that Tesla could do to control Demand Charges is to slow the recharge rate of the Semis at the Megacharger. This is not something that they are likely to do, but it is an option. If they hit a case say at 8PM when the Powerpacks are drained, the solar is no longer generating and using grid energy is the only option. Then charging at 90% instead of 100% would reduce the grid load.

Capital Costs

Installing Megacharging stations with solar carports and Powerpacks will be expensive. Today, however, the markets are willing to invest in Tesla's growth. Projects like this, with significant capital outlays are only possible when they expand the market potential for a company. For Tesla, freight hauling is a new market with the possibility for huge future revenues, so the markets are again likely to fund this topline growth.

Gas Station Model 

I've been making the case that the energy sales alone could be profitable. However, it is worth pointing out that at franchise gas stations, the station owners make little or no money from the pumps. The profits from the fuel sales go to the parent company. The franchise makes its profit from the store. The coffee, Marlboro, and Slim Jim sales are what keeps the lights on at your local gas stations.

Tesla Megacharger stations are going to have amenities such as coffee shops and restaurants. Sales are more likely to be lattes and scones than Marlboros and Slim Jims though. These amenities sales will be a much higher margin portion of the Megacharger revenue.

Wrap Up

This post started with the assertion by my friend that Tesla would lose money by selling energy at 7¢ per kWh. A first-order approximation response shows that wholesale energy markets commonly sell energy for 3 to 5¢ and that reselling for 7¢ could be done profitably. Additionally, Tesla will generate their own energy onsite with solar panels. These require very little ongoing maintenance and will allow Tesla to sell energy without buying it from the wholesale market.

With solar and onsite storage, Tesla has all the tools they require to mitigate demand charges. Tesla has further opportunities to generate revenue with the Megacharger stations by offering peak-shaving and load shifting services to local utilities.

There will be a significant cost to build-out this infrastructure, but the market has shown a willingness to fund Tesla's topline growth and Tesla's market darling status does not appear to be in any danger. This will allow Tesla to raise capital as needed to fund this growth.

All this allows Tesla to branch increase their revenue, grow their infrastructure, and take a chunk of a new market.

http://ts.la/patrick7819